Republicans are placing a big bet on Latino voters in their Texas redistricting gambit.
No segment of the electorate is poised to play a bigger role in the 2026 midterms. Prodded by the White House, Texas Republican lawmakers are preparing to muscle through a new congressional map that squeezes out five new seats for the House GOP.
People close to the redistricting process insist they can do this without spreading their voters too thin and endangering the 25 House GOP incumbents in Texas. A huge part of the reason: Democrats no longer have a lock on the fast-growing population of Latino voters.
“They love Donald Trump because Donald Trump loves the Latinos,” said Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas), “and he puts them first.”
Big shift. Dozens of Texas congressional districts moved to the right at the presidential level between 2020 and 2024, some by double-digits.
Consider this: the shift is so stark that GOP mapmakers could draw a host of Hispanic-majority districts that Trump would have won in 2024.
So the central question of 2026 will be whether Republicans can convert pro-Trump Latinos into reliable GOP voters?
If this Latino-driven realignment continues, Republicans can unlock vast new territory. But if those voters don’t turn out when Trump is off the ballot — or revert back to Democrats — the map could turn into a mess for the GOP.
“The Hispanic vote is the future of the demographics in Texas,” Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) said. “It’s no longer that a single party controls it. But it’s proven that more and more are voting Republican.”
Competing arguments. Democrats believe many of Trump’s supporters won’t turn out in midterms — and that Latinos in particular may be disillusioned by his policies.
“That is very risky,” Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) said, “especially in light of the ICE raids and the abusive manner in which they’ve been detaining and deporting people and businesses in South Texas.”
And Democrats note, correctly, that many of their incumbents on Hispanic turf in Texas won reelection, even as Trump carried their districts.
But Republicans argue the realignment is far bigger than just Trump. They can draw Latino districts that also backed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and GOP Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn during their last reelections.
“The border counties are going Republican for a good reason,” Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) said. “Doesn’t change based on Trump.”
