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September 14, 2022
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THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
Inflation is spiking. The stock market dropped more than 1,200 points Tuesday. President Joe Biden’s approval rating is in the low 40s. More than 30 of their colleagues have retired or announced runs for other offices. The weight of history is against them.
Yet top House Democrats have returned to Washington after a month-long break with a new line – not only will they hold onto their razor-thin majority, but they’re going to pick up seats.
Seriously. They’re saying this.
We caught up Tuesday with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, all of whom separately made the same prediction. The trio – who have run the House Democratic Caucus together for a generation – expressed strong optimism about the outlook in November. They insist it isn’t just false bravado but a realistic assessment of the national mood.
The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, combined with a series of legislative victories on Capitol Hill, has shifted the political landscape in their favor, these senior Democrats insist. Former President Donald Trump’s headlining-grabbing legal troubles also help. Democrats point to upset victories in Alaska and New York special elections, improved polling and strong fundraising as proof of all this.
We spoke to Pelosi twice on Tuesday. Once, as Pelosi entered her office, she responded, “Yes, indeed,” when asked if Democrats would win seats in November.
In our follow-up conversation, Pelosi expanded on her earlier remarks:
We followed up by asking Pelosi what she would say to those who believe that 2022 has echoes of 2010, when Democrats lost 63 seats in a historic wipeout powered by the rise of the Tea Party movement. That defeat handed John Boehner the speaker’s gavel and inexorably changed the arc of Barack Obama’s presidency.
Pelosi maintained right up until Election Day that year that House Democrats were going to win. Instead, they suffered a crushing loss and didn’t return to the majority for eight years.
“I don’t know what you mean by that,” Pelosi said, referring to comparisons to 2010. “Nobody’s told me that.”
Let’s be clear here – Democratic fortunes have improved significantly in recent months. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy began the year suggesting 60-something House seats were up for grabs, and now Republicans – and most political analysts – say a net gain of 10-20 seats is far more realistic.
We also understand the role that Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn play here as party leaders. Part of their job is sort of team captains, urging their members – and donors – to keep fighting until the end. There’s no reason to concede defeat publicly now. Whistling past the graveyard sort of comes with the job.
Also, the experts can be wrong. Just look at 2020. Most said Pelosi and Democrats would win House seats. Instead, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the Republicans picked up 14 seats, surprising the political world.
House Democrats who have been through losing the majority also say it doesn’t feel like that right now, the vibe just isn’t the same.
Rep. John Larson of Connecticut, who served as Democratic Caucus chair in 2010, said that during the Obamacare debate that year, some of his colleagues were aware that vote would seal their political fate.
Larson was referring to a proposed 15-week national ban on abortions introduced by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Tuesday to the dismay of Senate GOP leaders.
Hoyer echoed that take.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.), chair of the DCCC, joked that he “would never contradict the speaker” when pressed on the outlook for Election Day.
More SPM:
Inside Stefanik’s overwhelming bid for conference chair
As we scooped yesterday, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik is running for another term as House Republican Conference chair.
Stefanik, a close ally of former President Donald Trump, is the only announced candidate for the slot. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) is mulling a run as well.
But we don’t expect this to be much of a race.
Stefanik has locked up the support of the entire House Republican leadership and nearly every ranking committee Republican.
And a source involved in her whip operation told us last night Stefanik has already locked up the support of two-thirds of the House GOP, well more than what she needs to win a secret majority vote in conference.
Stefanik has a massive institutional advantage in this race. She’s raised more than $10 million for House Republicans and GOP candidates, and, in addition, has a successful leadership PAC that she’s used to help boost women candidates and incumbents. Karoline Leavitt, who Stefanik endorsed, beat Matt Mowers, who had the endorsement of the rest of the leadership, in a New Hampshire GOP primary Tuesday night.
Stefanik had previously considered a bid for whip or leaving the leadership for the House Education and Workforce Committee. But she’s well liked in the conference chair slot.
Stefanik’s decision gives a bit more shape to the GOP leadership should the party take the majority on Nov. 8. Kevin McCarthy will be the overwhelming favorite for speaker, Steve Scalise will likely run unopposed for majority leader and Stefanik will almost certainly be conference chair.
The big race will be for majority whip – if the job comes open. Reps. Drew Ferguson (Ga.) and Jim Banks (Ind.) have both expressed interest in the post but will have to face NRCC Chair Tom Emmer (Minn.) for the No. 3 slot.
Reps. Richard Hudson (N.C.) and Darin LaHood (Ill.) are both running for NRCC chair.
Also: House Republicans have pushed back the rollout of their agenda. They were originally scheduled to unveil their “Commitment to America” on Sept. 19 in the Pittsburgh area. But they have pushed it back to Sept. 23 due to Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral.
— Jake Sherman, Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan
TOMORROW: Join us on the livestream (in-person RSVPs are full) at 9:30 a.m. ET for our interview with Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) about her role as ranking member of the House Committee on Energy & Commerce and her priorities for 2023. RSVP here!
GAVEL GRAB
Inside Adrian Smith’s bid for the Ways and Means post
The GOP battle to lead the Ways and Means Committee has been in full swing for months. Reps. Adrian Smith (Neb.), Vern Buchanan (Fla.) and Jason Smith (Mo.) have been shadow boxing for the top Republican tax-writing slot, dishing out contributions to their colleagues and the NRCC while quietly making the case that they’re best suited to take the coveted job.
We’ve written a good deal about Jason Smith and Buchanan, seen by many as the leading two contenders. But we wanted to spend a moment focusing on Adrian Smith and his strategy in this race.
Let’s say this first: Buchanan and Jason Smith are far ahead in the money contest. Buchanan is the top contributor to the NRCC, having raised or donated more than $2.7 million to the committee. Jason Smith has raised or donated $2.1 million, making him the No. 5 rainmaker.
Adrian Smith has taken a different tact. He’s relied on hard-dollar contributions to members, candidates and committees, shelling out $1.1 million this cycle. Last cycle, the Nebraska Republican gave just north of $565,000. There are lots of ways to shower your colleagues with cash, and some prefer the hard-dollar-to-candidate route over pouring money into the NRCC’s coffers.
The Nebraska Republican also prides himself on mentoring new members of Congress and helping them set up their offices. Even Adrian Smith’s detractors acknowledge he’s well versed on policy. Adrian Smith is tied with Buchanan in seniority on the panel, and a few slots above Jason Smith.
A few interesting facts about Adrian Smith:
| → | He’s a close ally of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. The two men lived together in their early days in Congress. |
| → | He sent a box with gloves to members of the GOP steering committee, saying it was time to get to work. And he also sent this video, which is a direct-to-camera bio spot filmed in Nebraska. |
The House Republican Steering Committee, which McCarthy essentially controls, will decide committee jobs after the election, whether the GOP wins the majority or not. This three-way race is top of mind for many members of steering with just 55 days until Election Day.
– Jake Sherman
LEADER LOOK
Katherine Clark barnstorms the country to talk abortion access
Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark has a busy schedule ahead of the midterms as she criss-crosses the country to campaign for Democratic members and candidates. And we have some exclusive details.
The Massachusetts Democrat, who was in California last weekend raising money for candidates, will be traveling to at least 11 states over the next several weeks, we’ve learned. This includes stops in Georgia, Arizona, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Connecticut. That’s on top of recent swings through Florida, Texas, Ohio, Nevada and New Jersey.
So far this cycle, Clark has raised more than $7 million directly for House Democrats’ campaign arm, candidates and members.
The No. 4 House Democrat has become a much sought after surrogate on abortion access and family issues – particularly as abortion rights has become a key issue on the campaign trail.
Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, abortion has by far become the top issue in campaign ads, with more than $90 million being spent on the topic this summer.
Democrats have seen gains after the Supreme Court decision, with upticks in fundraising and voter registration, in addition to closing the gap on the generic ballot. The party also won upset special election victories in Alaska and New York last month.
For Clark, these issues – expanded childcare, family economics and reproductive rights – are ones she’s long advocated for on Capitol Hill while serving in leadership and as a member of the House Appropriations Committee.
Clark is in a very interesting spot. The 59-year-old lawyer has been in Congress since 2013, quickly rising through the leadership ranks, first as the caucus vice chair in 2018 and then jumping to the assistant speaker post in 2020.
Now she’s poised to assume one of the top Democratic leadership positions if and when the current Big Three – Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn – move on.
Clark’s political dynamics are also very interesting.
Clark doesn’t have as high profile a position as some of her other colleagues. House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries and Vice Chair Pete Aguilar have a weekly press conference, for example.
But as assistant speaker, Clark works closely with new members in the caucus, developing long-term relationships that could definitely be valuable in a future leadership race.
Clark is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus but isn’t considered a liberal bomb thrower. And she has years of experience campaigning for Democrats, going back to her stint as co-chair for DCCC recruitment and the red-to-blue program in 2018. She’s well liked by her colleagues, often described as someone who works hard behind the scenes with a sneaky good sense of humor.
– Heather Caygle
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