The Archive

GRANITE STATE

What to watch for on a crucial primary day in New Hampshire

Republican voters in New Hampshire today will determine the final piece of the Senate battleground puzzle when they decide Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan’s (N.H.) general election opponent.

The GOP Senate primary is a contest between retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc and state Senate President Chuck Morse. Morse has been endorsed by moderate GOP Gov. Chris Sununu and is receiving backing from groups aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Bolduc, although lacking an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, is more closely aligned with the right wing of the party and is a firm election denier.

The race between Bolduc and Morse mirrors national trends in 2022 GOP primaries between establishment and MAGA candidates. More often than not, the MAGA candidates have triumphed in high-profile Senate primaries. See Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, J.D. Vance in Ohio and Rep. Ted Budd in North Carolina as proof of that.

National Republicans tried to recruit Sununu, the state’s popular multi-term governor, to run for Senate. But Sununu publicly rebuffed the party leadership, decrying the gridlock in D.C. and declaring he could have a bigger impact in his job as governor.

New Hampshire Democrats believe both Morse and Bolduc are flawed general election candidates because of their anti-abortion stances. In a state known for its pro-choice values, Hassan has made abortion rights a central issue of her campaign following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in June.

Mowers is endorsed by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Minority Whip Steve Scalise and Republican Study Committee Chair Jim Banks. He’s also gotten backing from the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with the House GOP leadership. Leavitt has the endorsement of her former boss — House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik — and is accusing the party establishment of smearing her campaign.

— Max Cohen

THE MONEY GAME

How the ‘Three Johns’ are stepping up their fundraising game

The National Republican Senatorial Committee’s cash crunch has been well documented – as has the accompanying feud between its chair, Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.), and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Here’s how the “Three Johns” — the successors vying to one day replace McConnell — are using their financial prowess to help flip the Senate.

This cycle, Cornyn has raised more than $17 million for Senate candidates to date. When the cycle is over, his team expects the tally to exceed $20 million.

Cornyn launched a joint fundraising committee — the Cornyn Victory Committee — in early 2021 that has raised $10.3 million. That money has gone to vulnerable incumbents and to GOP challengers in Alabama, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia.

“I’m the second largest fundraiser for the senatorial committee,” Cornyn told us. “When Blake Masters wins, or Ted Budd or J.D. Vance, I call them up and I say, ‘Congratulations. By the way, I’ve got a check for you.’ And I help them get started in the general election.”

In addition to the $10.3 million raised through his joint fundraising committee, Cornyn has chipped in another $6.8 million to the NRSC and directly to incumbents and candidates.

“I was chairman of the senatorial committee for two cycles and, of course, was able to develop a pretty good network of donors there,” Cornyn said. “And I’ve stayed in touch with all of them. Mainly in Texas, but in New York and other places, too. And this is something that I’m willing to do to help us get back in the majority.”

Barrasso, the current chair of the Senate GOP conference, has hosted fundraisers in Wyoming and D.C. to benefit Republican candidates in tough races this year.

In August, Barrasso tapped into the wealthy donor world of Jackson Hole, Wyo., hosting a fundraiser for Georgia Republican Herschel Walker and Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt. The event raised nearly $250,000. Barrasso also hosted a D.C. fundraiser for Ohio candidate J.D. Vance.

Currently, Barrasso is organizing donations from his biggest Wyoming donors to benefit challengers like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Joe O’Dea in Colorado.

Barrasso also recently contributed $250,000 to the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund.

“Every Republican senator is committed to taking back the majority,” Barrasso told us. “Every Republican candidate is benefitting from our unified focus on holding Democrats accountable for failing America.”

Thune is the only John up for reelection this cycle. Despite crossing former President Donald Trump following the insurrection, Thune faced no serious primary challenge and is expected to coast to reelection in the Mount Rushmore State.

However, Thune’s own electoral duties have precluded his ability to be as publicly active in helping flip the majority. The optics of Thune showing up to campaign or fundraise in Georgia or Nevada while facing his own election in South Dakota are less than ideal.

Still, Thune has contributed by hosting events for candidates in D.C.

“We’re raising money, namely. The best thing you can do for candidates is help them get our dollars,” Thune told us. “So we’re doing events. We got a lot of them coming [to D.C.] in the next couple of weeks.”

His victory committee — Friends Of John Thune — has $16.9 million on hand as of June 30. And he’s expected to easily win re-election in November, leaving some to wonder where he’ll put all that money in the meantime. Here’s Thune’s response when we asked him if he was considering cutting a big check to the NRSC, as he has done in past years:

— John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

ATTN 1600 PENN.

Vulnerable Senate Dems maintaining their distance from White House

For months, we’ve been tracking whether vulnerable Democrats want President Joe Biden to campaign with them ahead of the midterms. When we asked endangered Senate Democrats in June if they wanted Biden to appear in their battleground states, they largely refused to engage.

After a summer of big legislative wins for the White House — including the sweeping $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act, the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act and the PACT Act — we wondered if they’d warmed to a presidential campaign visit.

The short answer: Not really.

The most at-risk Senate Democrats still wouldn’t directly answer whether they wanted Biden to campaign with them.

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) told us in June he was focused on delivering for Georgians, not how the White House could support his reelection bid. Last week, Warnock told us the Biden campaign question was “something for the pundits to focus on.”

And here’s Warnock’s response when we asked if he was touting the IRA in the Peach State:

When we asked Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) about a Biden visit, the former Navy pilot and astronaut deflected by saying he would “welcome anybody to come to Arizona.”

Kelly did hail the CHIPS Act and the prescription drug pricing reform in the IRA.

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) was the endangered incumbent most open to Biden’s involvement. “The president of the United States is always welcome in New Hampshire,” Hassan told us.

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) replied in a similar manner to NBC before quickly asserting where her “focus” is: “The POTUS is always welcome in my state, but my focus right now is on Nevada, first and foremost.”

Cortez Masto is also praising the IRA on the trail, arguing the package will “create jobs” and “lower costs for Nevadans.”

— Max Cohen, Heather Caygle, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

AD SPENDING

Abortion messaging dominates ad spending

We asked our friends at AdImpact to analyze what issues are being spent on the most when it comes to campaign ads. Abortion is by far the leading issue from the day the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade to the present.

On the top spender list, the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund is leading the way with nearly $200 million spent and reserved up to Election Day.

— Max Cohen