After losing control of Washington in 2024, Democrats are desperate for a party standard-bearer to fill their leadership vacuum. Here’s who our Canvass community predicted would rise to the occasion.
K Street leaders and top Hill staffers consistently named California Gov. Gavin Newsom as the most influential Democrat and pol likely to emerge as the party’s leader during President Donald Trump’s second term.
In our November Capitol Hill survey, 82% of respondents ranked Newsom above other prominent Democrats, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.
Notably, only 5% of respondents picked former Vice President Kamala Harris in November’s poll. Harris’ 2024 running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, ranked at the bottom.
The party’s top two congressional leaders didn’t fare well among Canvass respondents either. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came in at sixth place in the November survey of senior Hill aides with 18%, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer ranked 16th with 3%.
Similarly, when we asked K Street in October about the most likely Democratic Party leader, 71% picked Newsom, followed by Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez.
Newsom has become one of the most vocal Democrats publicly pushing back on Trump this year, at times mimicking the Republican leader’s communication style.
Newsom vs. Trump. The California governor successfully led a ballot initiative to counter Republicans’ nationwide gerrymandering efforts by redrawing the state’s congressional map.
California’s Proposition 50, which passed in November, could help Democrats pick up as many as five House seats.
Newsom has also sued the Trump administration dozens of times, including over cuts to food and homelessness assistance programs, electric vehicle policies and the deployment of the National Guard in Los Angeles.
GOP influencers? On the Republican side, there’s no doubt that Trump has a firm hold of the party. Still, Capitol Hill and K Street leaders weighed in on which Republicans have boosted their profiles this year. Respondents ranked Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the top.
Vance and Rubio have both remained loyal defenders of Trump this year, fiercely shutting down criticism of the administration and winning the president’s approval.
Senior Hill staffers said Vance (75%), Rubio (61%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (31%) were most successful in increasing their prominence among Trump’s base this year.
