Election year has arrived. And that means that the primary season has begun.
From early March to mid-September — with breaks in April and July — voters will finalize the November matchups in key swing seats.
For open safe seats, the primary is tantamount to a general election and holds even higher stakes. A rash of House and Senate retirements has created an especially large number of open seats.
The first primaries are just two months away. Save and clip this cheat sheet for the March contests to watch.
March 3. Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas.
There is no shortage of interesting primaries in Texas. Let’s start with the Senate. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) is up against state Rep. James Talarico for the Democratic nomination. Some Democrats fear Crockett may struggle to win a general election, but she starts as the favorite in this race.
On the GOP side, it’s a three-way contest between Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Paxton is all but certain to make the May runoff. The question is whether Hunt boxes out Cornyn, the veteran incumbent senator.
In the House, Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) is battling her predecessor, former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), in a newly redistricted Dallas seat. Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) will also run against a sitting member — whoever wins the Jan. 31 special election to fill the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s seat.
Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper has an easy path through the Senate Democratic primary in the Tar Heel state. Republicans tried to clear the field for former RNC Chair Michael Whatley, but far-right activist Michele Morrow just jumped in.
March 10. Mississippi.
Longtime Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson landed a primary challenge from Evan Turnage, an antitrust lawyer who worked for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
Turnage, 33, recently launched his bid, so it’s not yet clear whether he’ll be able to fundraise sufficiently. But this could be an early test case for the spate of generational change-driven primaries coming up. Thompson is 77.
March 17. Illinois.
The Land of Lincoln will host the next big Senate primary to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin. The contenders: Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly and Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton. Krishnamoorthi has led in fundraising and has been running TV ads. The big question here is whether Gov. JB Pritzker funds a super PAC to help Stratton.
Five of Illinois’ Democratic incumbents are retiring or running for Senate, leaving several safe blue seats open. Aside from Krishnamoorthi and Kelly, Reps. Danny Davis, Jan Schakowsky and Chuy Garcia are retiring.
Notable names to watch in these races: Former Rep. Melissa Bean is running to replace Krishnamoorthi. Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. is vying for Kelly’s district. And social media influencer Kat Abughazaleh is running for Schakowsky’s seat.
