NEWS: W.H., Schumer trying to avert shutdown

IN THIS EDITION

Schumer, W.H. trying to avert shutdown

The House GOP’s Homeland problem

Kelly to go on air in Illinois Senate race

Punchbowl News celebrates five years

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Schumer, W.H. trying to avert shutdown

Happy Thursday morning.

✈️Happening today: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is our guest on Fly Out Day today. The episode will be live this afternoon. Subscribe here.

Shutdown watch. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House are negotiating a framework to pass five of the six outstanding FY2026 funding bills, as well as a stopgap measure for the Department of Homeland Security, per sources familiar with the discussions.

Under this framework, Congress would pass a short-term DHS patch to allow for negotiations to continue over new limits on ICE and CBP agents as they implement President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown. The Senate Republican leadership began the week by saying Democrats should agree to pass all six spending bills, which Schumer has refused to do.

If Schumer and the White House come to an agreement, there would still likely be a funding lapse over the weekend. The House, which is slated to return Monday, would have to pass the five-bill spending package and the DHS stopgap.

On Wednesday, Senate Democrats coalesced around a list of proposed reforms to DHS and ICE’s operations and tactics. Democrats want to tighten the rules over the use of warrants, enforce a uniform code of conduct for federal officers, bar federal agents from wearing masks and require them to wear body cameras.

Trump and White House officials clearly feel like they’re at a significant political disadvantage here, which is why they are engaging Schumer in the talks. Plus, Democrats are ready to take this fight to the brink and shut down the government for the second time in a few months if needed.

Border czar Tom Homan, who Trump sent to Minnesota to take over federal operation there from controversial Border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino, will hold a highly-anticipated press conference this morning. White House officials want Homan to calm down a volatile situation that’s led to two deadly shootings by federal agents in just a few weeks. Those shootings have turned into a crisis that’s put Congress on the verge of another shutdown for key federal agencies.

There were mixed feelings among Hill Democrats about whether last fall’s clash over Obamacare subsidies was worth the record 43-day government shutdown, even though it armed Democrats with a potent health care message for the midterms.

Democrats’ mood. Senate Democrats’ complete 180 on a potential shutdown after Saturday’s fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis is even more remarkable when you consider the handful of Democrats who opposed the last one.

“I don’t like shutdowns,” said Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), one of just three Democratic Caucus members who wouldn’t support the October-November shutdown. “But it was a matter of conscience. I didn’t want to be complicit with what these guys are doing.”

To Democrats, the current situation has both a strong moral and political element. In this case, Democrats see an equivalent political upside of instigating another shutdown fight as they observe an unusually conciliatory Trump and a majority of Senate Republicans acknowledging the need for changes at DHS.

How Senate Democrats navigate the funding fight will be under immense scrutiny from their base, which has been eager to battle the Trump administration — and even more so now. Schumer and top Senate Democrats are also issuing demands they view as realistic concessions for the GOP, a tactic that won’t sit well with everyone on the left.

On a private caucus call Wednesday night, some House Democrats raised questions over whether they can trust their Senate counterparts to hold out, according to multiple sources on the call. Members wondered if Senate Democrats’ demands would do enough to rein in ICE.

Some progressives want to go even further. Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) said Democrats should be using this opportunity to “defund and abolish” ICE.

The state of play. The Senate is scheduled to hold the first procedural vote on the six-bill funding package at 11:30 a.m. To strip out the DHS funding, Democrats first need to provide the votes to advance the legislation.

We’ll have to see whether Schumer and the White House have an agreement by that time, or are on the path to reaching a deal.

There’s real risk here for both Trump and Schumer. The House is a mess — more on that in a minute — and hardline conservatives have said they’re staunchly opposed to rewriting the DHS funding bill.

The White House had offered Democrats executive orders or another legislative package in which they could enact their DHS reforms. But top Democrats were insistent that these reforms be enacted in the DHS spending bill. Unlike the previous shutdown fight, Democrats limited their demands to a set of reforms they believe are realistic for Republicans to agree to.

Senate Democrats feel they need to get a deal quickly, amid the national uproar over Pretti’s killing.

However, some Republicans are reluctant to embrace the entirety of the Democrats’ demands, including that ICE agents be barred from wearing masks and that warrant requirements be tightened. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) said before Democrats finalized their proposal that the GOP wouldn’t agree to anything that stops ICE from carrying out Trump’s immigration crackdown.

“The American people wanted the president to enforce law and order,” Mullin said. “ICE is doing their job.”

— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss, John Bresnahan, Ally Mutnick and Jake Sherman

Join us for a summit focused on understanding the many factors shaping youth mental health on Wednesday, Feb. 4, at 8 a.m. ET. The event will kick off with a bipartisan panel interview, featuring Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.). Afterward, we’ll hold a fireside chat and an expert panel discussion. RSVP today!

HOUSE REPUBLICANS

The House GOP’s Homeland problem

If Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House come up with a deal to avert a shutdown, that proposal will then come over to Speaker Mike Johnson’s House, where any plan to overhaul the Department of Homeland Security will be met with deep skepticism.

The House will return Monday night to several new dynamics.

Voters in Houston will elect a candidate this weekend to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas). If Johnson swears in a new Democrat as expected, the House will have 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats. That’s a one-vote margin on any bill for the GOP (remember, ties don’t count.)

Now let’s review the other issue at hand – funding for DHS, and ICE in particular. As the Senate seeks to avert a shutdown, the House Republican leadership is extremely concerned about what lies ahead.

In fact, House Republican leaders don’t see a clear path to getting a new Homeland Security funding bill through the chamber again. President Donald Trump will have to be directly involved in the whipping effort to have any chance at all.

The House Freedom Caucus has made clear that it is opposed to renegotiating the DHS measure. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) — who’s running for attorney general in the Lone Star State — said that if the DHS bill gets reopened, he’d seek to cut all funding for sanctuary cities. Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the chair of the House Freedom Caucus, would likely push for additional H-2B visas, something he’s fought for in the past.

More fundamentally, most House Republicans don’t agree with the main policy demands from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. For example, the House GOP leadership has serious reservations about mandating that ICE obtain judicial warrants for arrests. Privately, the White House says this is a non-starter. Yet it’s also a red line for most Democrats, so there’s a huge gap here.

The only hope is that Trump gets deeply involved in the negotiations and brings skeptical House Republicans along.

Meanwhile, House Democratic leaders seem incredibly comfortable with their position. They feel as if a showdown over DHS funding will continually remind voters that federal agents fatally shot two people in Minneapolis and Republicans are refusing to take any legislative action to respond to the crisis.

“Our cards are great and they know their cards are bad,” one House Democratic aide told us.

– Jake Sherman

LAND OF LINCOLN

Kelly to go on air in Illinois Senate race

News: Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) will begin airing TV ads next week as part of a $2 million blitz in the Democratic primary for Illinois’ open Senate seat.

Kelly is locked in a three-way contest for the March 17 primary with Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) and Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

Kelly’s campaign has booked $1 million in broadcast TV ads in the Chicago market for the final four weeks of the campaign. Kelly will begin airing cable and streaming ads next week and maintain a presence through the Winter Olympics, bringing the total planned spending to $2 million.

This buy is particularly notable because both Kelly and Stratton are attempting to break through the huge financial advantage Krishnamoorthi has built. Krishnamoorthi has been on air since July 2025 and has spent some $22 million on ads.

One of Krishnamoorthi’s latest ads calls for abolishing ICE in the aftermath of two deadly shootings by ICE agents in Minneapolis.

Stratton has spent less than $60,000 on ads, per AdImpact. But Stratton has received backup from the Illinois Future PAC, which has spent $1.4 million. Stratton’s campaign signaled this week to the super PAC that it wanted the group to air ads highlighting her opposition to ICE, posting b-roll footage of her at a protest in Chicago.

“In Chicago, voters should see that Juliana Stratton is the strongest candidate in this race to stand up to Donald Trump,” her campaign wrote to the super PAC in a public message, known as a “red box.”

Stratton and Kelly will have to use the next six weeks strategically to edge in front of Krishnamoorthi. The Jan. 31 FEC deadline will reveal how much resources they have to carry their message.

Kelly has gained 7,000 new grassroots donors since filing articles of impeachment against DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, per her campaign. The articles have drawn more than 160 co-sponsors since Kelly filed them on Jan. 14.

One big remaining question: Does Gov. JB Pritzker give a huge cash infusion to the Stratton super PAC? That could upend this race.

— Ally Mutnick

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Punchbowl News celebrates five years

We continued our fifth anniversary celebration this month with two events at the Punchbowl News Capitol Hill townhouse. Last night, we hosted a Hill community happy hour with Punchbowl News Policy Editor Dave Clarke sharing remarks. That followed a Premium+ live policy briefing with members of the editorial team last week. Thank you to all who helped make our fifth anniversary so special.

Raising a glass: Blake Kernen, of Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-Maine) office, Kaily Grabemann and Matt Burton of Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s office, Chloe Kolakowski of Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) office, Ian Mariani of Sen. Adam Schiff’s (D-Calif.) office, Tracy Moore of Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse’s (D-R.I) office, Audrey Pack and Eric Fejer of Sen. John Curtis’ (R-Utah) office, Stephanie Penn of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) office, Brendan Duff of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) office, Rachel Dumke of Sen. Eric Schmitt’s (R-Mo.) office, Olivia Davis of the Democratic Governors Association, Stephen Lewerenz of the HELP Senate Committee, Matt Gorman of Targeted Victory and Doug Andres.

AND THERE’S MORE…

Dean and Cammack to headline WPCF: Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) and Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) will headline the Washington Press Club Foundation’s 80th annual Congressional dinner on Feb. 4.

Punchbowl News is a proud supporter of the dinner, which brings together reporters and lawmakers of both parties for a fun evening honoring pioneering female journalists. Proceeds from the dinner help fund scholarships and educational programming for aspiring journalists.

News. Senate Majority PAC, the top Senate Democratic super PAC, and its affiliated C4 organizations raised $108 million in 2025.

SMP ended the year with $75.3 million on hand.

More fundraising news: Rep. Haley Stevens’ (D-Mich.) Senate campaign raised $2.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. Stevens ended the year with over $3 million on hand as she faces Abdul El-Sayed and Mallory McMorrow in the competitive Democratic primary.

Virginia. Democrats filed an appeal seeking an emergency stay of Tuesday’s ruling that blocked their redistricting plans in Virginia. It was filed in the Virginia Court of Appeals, the state’s intermediate court. This is almost certainly headed to the Virginia Supreme Court next.

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

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