Congress put out one fire just to start another.
About 12 hours ago, President Donald Trump signed a bill into law that funds most of the federal government through Sept. 30. But the Department of Homeland Security is only funded for another nine days — until Feb. 13.
Let’s reiterate this simple fact: Congress won’t be able to pass any deal to overhaul DHS policies and procedures by that time. Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune have expressed strong doubt about two of the policy changes most important to Democrats — barring federal agents from wearing masks and requiring judicial warrants to detain undocumented immigrants.
Johnson also said he wanted to use this opportunity to force Congress to crack down on “sanctuary cities” that won’t cooperate with federal authorities on deporting undocumented immigrants. That’s aimed right at Democratic-run cities, and it’ll never get Democratic support.
All this means that congressional leaders and the White House will need to focus on what to do when DHS funding runs out once again. Let’s talk about possible scenarios for the next two weeks.
Another short-term CR. Congress could try to pass another short-term CR to keep DHS funded past the Feb. 13 deadline.
From a policy perspective, this makes sense. DHS isn’t just ICE and CBP. The massive, unwieldy department includes TSA, the Coast Guard, FEMA and more. It’s both the strength and weakness of DHS.
Lawmakers are incentivized to keep funding for these critical functions flowing. Republicans think they have the upper hand in this situation because a DHS shutdown would impact the aforementioned entities, while ICE and CBP can still operate. That’s because Republicans included tens of billions of dollars for them in the One Big Beautiful Bill last summer.
“I think in many ways the Democrats boxed themselves into a very difficult negotiating position,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said. “That said, there’s still a genuine desire to do something and to make some reforms.”
But did you watch the House floor Tuesday? The chamber was barely able to clear a 10-day CR on the promise that Trump would negotiate with Hill leaders. Johnson would again have a very tough time passing a rule to bring a DHS funding bill to the floor.
Plus, we can’t foresee a scenario in which dozens of House Democrats vote for a DHS bill in any form. Just 21 House Democrats voted Tuesday for the short-term DHS CR coupled with a package of five bipartisan spending bills they overwhelmingly favored. It won’t get better by next week.
In the Senate, Republicans would need at least seven Democrats to join with them to clear another DHS funding patch. For now, Senate Democrats are using the imminent deadline to try to prevent a loss of momentum. Which means nearly every Democratic senator is indicating they wouldn’t support another stopgap funding bill for DHS.
A Democratic senator who attended the Senate Democratic Caucus’ closed-door lunch on Tuesday told us that there likely would be sufficient support for a two- or three-week extension, but only if there’s been “tangible progress” toward a bipartisan product.
Furthermore, hardline conservatives like Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) will definitely use another must-pass bill for their pressure campaign to have the Senate pass the SAVE America Act.
This is why Thune and Johnson were opposed to a two-week funding patch. There was never a chance that Trump would be able to get a deal in such a short timeframe.
The House GOP makes a play. This is improbable, but House Republicans could try to jam the Senate and then leave town for the Presidents Day recess.
One way Johnson may be able to pass a DHS funding bill is if he can convince House Republicans that the only option is to enact a full-year CR for the department.
Republicans in both chambers say they’re very comfortable with a yearlong CR. It would give the Trump administration maximum flexibility, something that might be appealing to House Republicans in particular.
Yet Thune would be put in an impossible situation because a yearlong DHS CR has zero chance of getting 60 votes in the Senate.
Several lawmakers are scheduled to leave Feb. 12 for the Munich Security Conference. The following week is a scheduled recess.
A deal that nobody likes. Is there any agreement that Republicans and Democrats could reach that makes some progress but leaves everyone a bit disappointed?
Probably not. We’re in a maximalist era in politics where neither side is incentivized to compromise. Yet the basic outlines of such an agreement aren’t hard to divine. Congress could mandate that federal officers wear body cameras and coordinate with local law enforcement agencies. That’s just about the only area of overlap at this point.
No deal. What if DHS stays unfunded for a long period of time? It isn’t a goal for any of the leaders, but given the politics of all participants, an off-ramp isn’t obvious to us.
We’ll note once again — as will congressional leaders and the White House — that not funding DHS won’t shut down ICE or CBP.
If Congress can’t pass a CR to fund DHS, Republicans will hammer Democrats for cutting off key agencies and Democrats will say that they will never give another dime to the department until ICE is reformed.
