News: A PPP poll commissioned by Senate Majority PAC found “no meaningful difference in electability” between Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a general election matchup against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.
It’s notable to us that Senate Democrats are pushing this narrative, given Democrats have spent much of this year praying for Paxton to advance to the general. Conventional wisdom was that the attorney general’s scandals — Paxton was impeached in 2023 and his ex-wife has accused him of adultery — would make him more vulnerable than Cornyn to an upset.
The polling found Talarico leading Cornyn 44%-43% and Talarico leading Paxton 47%-45%. We’ll note these results are within the 4.1% margin of error and there’s a relatively small sample size of 576 Texas voters. The poll was conducted immediately after Tuesday’s primary from March 4-5.
Talarico has consistently said he views Paxton and Cornyn as equally vulnerable to a general election upset.
We don’t normally run polls like this. But PPP, to its credit, was accurate in its polling of the Texas Senate Democratic primary. The last PPP poll before the primary had Talarico leading Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) 48%-42%. Talarico ended up winning the election 52%-46%.
