AUSTIN, Texas — Senate Republicans spent $77 million to buy themselves a runoff here in Texas.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) edged out Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton last night — barely. With 89% of the vote in, Cornyn had 41.9%, while Paxton tallied 40.9%. GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt came in distant third at 13.4%.
That result means this bare-knuckle, mega-Texas primary will last for another 12 weeks. Gobs more money will be spent. And it’ll put a tremendous amount of pressure on the White House to get involved in the race.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and top Republicans have been urging President Donald Trump for months to endorse the 74-year-old Cornyn, a four-term incumbent. That effort will ramp up significantly in the weeks ahead as both Cornyn and Thune make the case that the veteran GOP senator defied expectations and is the best candidate to keep Texas red.
During an election night news conference, Cornyn called Paxton a “dead weight” for down-ballot races and said if the controversial AG were the nominee, it could cause Republicans to lose five House seats in Texas. This could be an appealing argument for Trump to back Cornyn. Perhaps it’ll outweigh Cornyn’s history of criticizing Trump following the 2020 election.
“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years,” Cornyn told supporters in a ballroom at the downtown Marriott here. “There is simply too much at stake in this midterm election for our state and for our country.”
Cornyn added: “Judgment Day is coming for Ken Paxton.”
With state Rep. James Talarico defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett by more than seven points in the Democratic Senate primary and avoiding a runoff, Republicans will make that argument to Trump — they need their strongest, most battle-tested candidate at the top of the ticket.
There was major drama tonight for Democrats, too. New voting procedures led hundreds of voters to turn up at the wrong polling sites, resulting in mass confusion and a flurry of court orders changing voting hours in the Dallas area. That’s Crockett’s home base and could put an asterisk on Talarico’s win.
Crockett entered the race with a large early lead, but Talarico overcame that with massive spending. Talarico also made the case that he was the stronger general-election candidate.
Paxton’s problems. Paxton’s career and personal life have been marred by scandal after scandal, and Republicans are concerned in particular about Talarico’s broader appeal beyond the Democratic base. Thune now has the political capital to press Trump to back Cornyn after this performance.
For his part, Paxton claimed Texas Republicans made clear they’ve had enough of Cornyn.
“After all the personal attacks and all the lies, you listened to what John Cornyn was selling and you weren’t buying it,” Paxton told his own supporters in Dallas. “In his over 40 years in office, you cannot name one single accomplishment that [Cornyn] has done to help the state of Texas. Forty years!”
Outlook. Short of Cornyn winning outright, Tuesday’s outcome was the best-case scenario for Senate GOP leaders. If Paxton had won by a sizable margin or Crockett was likely to be the nominee, it would be that much harder for Thune to convince Trump that Cornyn was a good bet.
But this GOP runoff will also be incredibly expensive. The drawn-out Cornyn-Paxton battle will siphon resources away from Senate battleground states like North Carolina and Michigan.
It’s important to remember that the runoff dynamics favor Paxton. The electorate in a runoff is smaller and much more conservative. It’s the hard-core activist types who show up to vote the day after Memorial Day. Cornyn will really need Trump’s endorsement here. Talking about his record in the Senate as a pragmatic dealmaker won’t do Cornyn any good.
Establishment Republicans are furious with Hunt, too. Tuesday’s results back up their claims that Hunt had no path to victory and only served as a runoff-causing spoiler. But Republicans were forced to spend millions countering a late surge by Hunt
Incumbents struggle. Otherwise, primary night was a pretty bad one for incumbents.
GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw had his clock cleaned by state Rep. Steve Toth. Toth is leading the 41-year-old former Navy SEAL by 16 points with 91% of the vote in. Crenshaw couldn’t even drag himself into a runoff despite vastly outspending Toth.
Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, in the midst of a scandal over an alleged affair with a now-deceased former aide, advanced to a runoff with Brandon Herrera, a gun-rights YouTube star. Gonzales is trailing by roughly two points. The runoff means that the Office of Congressional Conduct won’t release its report on Gonzales until after the May runoff.
Longtime Democratic Rep. Al Green of Houston is trailing in his primary to newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee. This means redistricting could lead to a generational shift for the nation’s fourth-largest city. Green is 78, while Menefee is only 37. This is a heavily Democratic seat that will stay blue in November.
And Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) appears to be headed for a runoff with former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) in a blue Dallas seat.
The battlegrounds. Both parties got their preferred recruits in South Texas with no runoffs. Attorney Eric Flores won the GOP nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. And Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina will face Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar.
Tejano music star Bobby Pulido also advanced to a general matchup against GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz.
North Carolina. Two-term Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) is locked in a too-close-to-call race with Nida Allam, the progressive Durham County commissioner in a deep-blue seat.
In North Carolina’s 1st District, 2024 Republican candidate Laurie Buckhout has a rematch with Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) in a seat that trended right after redistricting.
