Iowa could be big for Democrats in '26

IN THIS EDITION

Why Iowa Dems are excited about 2026

GOP pleads with WH on reconciliation

Punch Power Matrix

Tech: NDAA highlights fears over China’s robots

THE TOP

Why Iowa Dems are excited about 2026

Happy Friday morning.

SIOUX CITY, Iowa — Iowa Democrats are dreaming big in 2026, aiming to flip the governor’s mansion, a Senate seat and three House districts.

It’s a very tall task given that President Donald Trump carried the Hawkeye State by 13 points in 2024, while Republicans swept all four House seats. Iowa has been getting consistently redder for a generation now.

But Democrats insist their ambitious plans this year are possible thanks to a massive voter backlash against Trump’s policies. A cost-of-living crisis is wreaking havoc on Iowa’s rural counties and agricultural economy. Democrats believe that gives them a huge opening.

Winning in Iowa could be key to Democrats flipping control of the House, and in a blue wave environment, maybe even winning back the Senate.

“We’re a common-sense state that’s masqueraded as a red state. The margins are small,” Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, who’s running for Senate, said at a Sioux City event on Thursday. “The amazing opportunity that we have here in Iowa is if we can duplicate what we did in Trump’s first midterm, we can flip Congress.”

Pro-Democratic outside groups are taking note and planning to pour tens of millions of dollars into the state’s congressional races.

“Folks are seeing Trump policies decimate their financial realities here in this state,” Democratic state Rep. Lindsay James, who’s trying to win Iowa’s open 2nd District, told us. “It’s not just gas or groceries. It’s the fact that folks are watching the premium rates in their healthcare go up.”

James, the favorite in the Democratic primary, is seeking to win a northwest Iowa district that backed Trump by 11 points in 2024.

Iowa’s toss-up 1st and 3rd Districts — represented by vulnerable GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn — understandably are receiving the bulk of the attention. But if James’ likely matchup against Trump-endorsed Republican Joe Mitchell becomes competitive, it would signal that Democrats will win big in the midterms.

Democratic decline. Iowa Democrats are at an electoral low point. While party loyalists are quick to point out that Democrats won three House seats during the last Trump midterm in 2018, there are no Democrats in the Iowa congressional delegation right now. The last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Iowa was 2008. The last time a Democrat won a governor’s race was in 2006.

Iowa is home to numerous counties that backed former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before swinging hard to Trump in 2016 and beyond.

Democrats argue the party’s lost voters aren’t Republicans as much as people fed up with the political system. As a result, Democrats want to capitalize on economic angst by embracing an anti-establishment message.

“A lot of it is not really left-right ideological. It’s really a question of who do you work for?” said state Sen. Zach Wahls, who’s running for Senate. “Trump represents this anti-establishment spirit that has a lot of pull in Iowa.”

Wahls is locked in a primary with Turek to face Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) in November. We’ll have much more on this race on Monday morning.

“I hardly ever use the words Democrat or Republican when I’m out talking to people. People really are so sick of the extremes and the party politics,” added Democrat Christina Bohannan, who’s running against Miller-Meeks.

Bohannan, who outperformed Kamala Harris in 2024, says she’s seeing Republicans and independents flock to her campaign this cycle.

“Farmers are speaking out, hospital CEOs, small business owners. People who usually would stay out of politics or kind of keep quiet about it are speaking out more publicly,” Bohannan said.

The Sand effect. Members of both parties readily admit that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is a real contender to win in November. The state auditor has cultivated a centrist brand and is benefiting from a fractious GOP primary where Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) is the favorite. But Feenstra hasn’t pulled ahead, and the GOP primary may lead to a convention if no candidate clears 35%.

State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, who’s looking to knock off Nunn in the 3rd District, told us enthusiasm for Sand and other statewide Democrats will boost her.

“I ran in ‘20, I ran in ‘22 and I ran in ‘24. This feels different,” Garriott told us at an event in Adel, Iowa. “It’s really great to be running with really strong candidates on the ballot, because a lot of years it felt like I was on my own.”

GOP response. Republicans are attacking their Democratic opponents as too left-wing and at odds with Iowa’s common-sense values. At every turn, GOP candidates remind voters about the struggles of the Biden years.

“Iowans have a pretty good memory, being the first in the nation state. We have the unfortunate scars from Biden driving our country to the brink,” Hinson told us. “I hear every day from folks who don’t want to return to that.”

— Max Cohen

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RECONCILIATION

GOP pleads with WH on reconciliation

Senate Republicans’ reconciliation bill to fund ICE and CBP is in peril.

The controversy over President Donald Trump’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund has halted the roughly $70 billion package. Senate GOP leaders have said the White House needs to help them find a way out of the impasse.

The Republican leadership has asked the White House to develop language to impose guardrails on the fund. Payouts from the fund could benefit Trump’s allies and supporters, including those convicted of assaulting police officers during the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

But the White House isn’t playing ball quite yet on addressing GOP senators’ concerns, which were raised during a hostile closed-door meeting last week with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. That might not be surprising, given that Trump is defending the fund.

Yet absent cooperation from the White House, Senate GOP leaders may go alone, with proposals ranging from imposing eligibility requirements to nullifying the fund altogether. Getting 50 votes to begin the process on the Senate floor won’t be easy. The path forward after that could be even trickier.

This is all very risky, as it increases the likelihood of a direct clash between Trump and Senate Republicans at a time when goodwill between them is at a low point.

Gridlock. It’s difficult to imagine the Senate moving forward with the immigration enforcement funding package until the White House proposes restrictions on who is eligible for the payout program. But Senate Republicans see this problem as one of Trump’s own making, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune made clear last week that the administration needs to play a role.

Senate GOP leaders want to pass the reconciliation bill by the end of next week, but that’s shaping up to be a difficult task. Ideally, they want to address the “anti-weaponization” fund as part of the base text of the legislation before it hits the floor, rather than expose it to the “Wild West” of the vote-a-rama, in which Democrats could essentially control the process.

As we explained on Monday, a handful of GOP senators may vote for Democratic amendments regardless of how the fund is addressed in the base text.

Historically, Senate leaders have been hesitant to kick off the floor process on a reconciliation bill until they’re confident they’ll be able to defeat amendments from the minority party. But the “anti-weaponization” fund is so politically toxic that it may be impossible for GOP leaders to secure these assurances from rank-and-file Republican senators.

GOP congressional leaders already face a legislative logjam. Section 702 of FISA expires on June 12, and House Republican leadership doesn’t expect a bill on the floor next week.

Speaker Mike Johnson is holding meetings about a third reconciliation package, which could include hundreds of billions of dollars in defense funding. Congress needs to pass a highway bill. And government funding will run dry at the end of September.

Shockingly, the House only has 40 days in session between now and Election Day.

— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman

WHO’S UP? WHO’S DOWN?

Punch Power Matrix

— Max Cohen

TECH

Tech: NDAA highlights fears over China’s robots

Congress is getting worried about Chinese robots.

The chair’s mark of the National Defense Authorization Act that the House Armed Services Committee will consider Thursday includes multiple provisions targeting robots. Members want the Pentagon to report to Congress on how it’s reducing its reliance on robotic systems made in China and by other U.S. competitors.

The proposed language would also expand acquisition security authority to include humanoid robots and unmanned vehicles. That in turn clears the way for further restrictions on the use of Chinese robots by the U.S. government.

It’s the latest sign of concern from Congress over the use of advanced foreign technology in critical infrastructure and a desire to ensure that adversaries can’t compromise or control U.S. supplies.

WALL-E world. Humanoid robots and other autonomous machines are the next frontier in advanced artificial intelligence, and tech companies are betting big on it.

While China has a history of producing consumer goods en masse and flooding global markets, lawmakers are worried that its rapid expansion into robots could present particular national security risks, as seen in other critical electronic equipment.

Just this year, the Federal Communications Commission moved to ban foreign routers and drones, which represent an ever-more important method of warfare and defense, from the American market.

The current House NDAA language falls short of some more ambitious proposals to go after Chinese and other adversaries’ robots.

A bill introduced in the Senate by Intelligence Committee Chair Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and in the House by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), would fully ban the government from procuring robots and related tech from foreign companies of concern.

That bill could come back up during the NDAA amendment process.

— Diego Areas Munhoz and Ben Brody

AND THERE’S MORE

Bondi’s day in the House. Former Attorney General Pam Bondi will sit for a closed-door, transcribed interview with the House Oversight Committee today about her handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Oversight Committee Democrats are already criticizing the fact that Bondi’s testimony won’t be videotaped.

Dems’ new oversight push. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is leading a series of letters pressing for an investigation into FBI Director Kash Patel and his use of bureau resources and travel, including reports of a “VIP snorkel” outing in Hawaii.

Schumer and Sens. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) are urging the Justice Department’s inspector general to investigate Patel and asking the FBI to turn over information on Patel’s travel.

Tax news: Democrats have started pushing for taxing AI companies — and one of the Senate’s top tax writers is joining the effort. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), the Finance Committee’s ranking member, is interested in creating a wage-security program for workers who lose their jobs due to AI, funded by a tax on tech companies deemed responsible.

— Laura Weiss, Max Cohen and Catherine Leffert