Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) nearly became Senate majority leader 18 months ago, ending up just a few votes shy of capturing the prestigious post.
Now Cornyn’s 24-year Senate career is over, all at the hands of a vengeful president and an unhappy base.
With President Donald Trump’s eleventh-hour backing, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff by a whopping 28-point margin.
The advertising price tag for this Republican primary alone: $130 million. But the general election price tag will make the primary look like child’s play.
Paxton’s victory was the latest example of the widening gulf between Trump’s grip on the GOP base and his sway with Senate Republicans in Washington. Trump has now ousted Cornyn and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), as well as veteran GOP Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.), even as the president’s hold on Senate Republicans loosens.
Picking up the pieces. With Cornyn’s defeat, the Senate GOP Conference loses a reliable conservative able to cut deals with Democrats on major issues, including gun safety and semiconductor chip manufacturing.
Senate Republicans also lose access to Cornyn’s vast fundraising network in a state filled with wealthy GOP donors. Cornyn has raised more than $400 million for Senate Republicans since 2002.
Paxton formally entered the race in April 2025, declaring that Cornyn’s abysmal poll numbers convinced him to take the plunge. Cornyn angered the GOP base with his reluctance to support Trump’s presidential comeback and willingness to work on a bipartisan gun deal following the horrific 2022 Uvalde school shooting.
Senate GOP leaders and their allies, terrified of the prospect of Paxton as their nominee, spent tens of millions of dollars ahead of the March 3 primary. Cornyn narrowly edged Paxton, but Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R-Texas) candidacy ensured the race went to a runoff.
From March to May, Republicans spent even more money on Cornyn. Yet runoff dynamics were always going to favor Paxton, who has a dedicated grassroots following despite his myriad of scandals.
Breaking point. Trump wouldn’t endorse Cornyn despite pleas from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other top Republicans. Trump later decided to use it as a cudgel against Thune over the filibuster. Trump played up his support for Paxton on Tuesday night.
Following the March 3 primary, Trump dangled a Cornyn endorsement to convince Senate Republicans to gut the filibuster and pass the SAVE America Act, an effort egged on by Paxton. Cornyn even flip-flopped on his long-standing support for the filibuster. Cornyn also introduced legislation calling for a major federal highway to be named after Trump, as well as backing the president’s military attacks on Iran and Venezuela. None of it helped.
Republicans acknowledge that the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, is a formidable candidate despite what they say are major flaws. Now, they’ll have to spend gobs of money to boost Paxton, whom they trashed during the primary because of his own personal baggage.
That awkwardness was on display Tuesday night when the NRSC released a statement that failed to mention Cornyn or Paxton, instead focusing on Talarico.
The only Senate GOP leader to address the Texas results was Majority Whip John Barrasso, who endorsed Paxton Tuesday evening. Barrasso declared Talarico is “too radical for Texas,” a phrase you’re going to hear a bajillion more times by Election Day.
Paxton and Senate Republicans will have to rely on Trump’s massive war chest and fundraising abilities to help win this race. Paxton’s campaign only reported $2.3 million in the bank as of May 6.
Democrats. Tuesday brought the first two Democratic incumbent losses of the cycle.
In Houston, Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) lost to Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Texas) in a member-vs-member race brought on by redistricting. Menefee, 38, made a generational-change argument against the 78-year-old Green, who was first elected in 2004.
Menefee won a January special election to Congress and received help from a pro-crypto super PAC during the runoff.
In Dallas, Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) lost renomination to former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), the man whom she succeeded in Congress. Allred left the House to make a failed Senate bid.
Perhaps the most high-profile Democratic race was in Texas’ open 35th District, where the DCCC-backed Johnny Garcia beat Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist who openly disparaged Jews in public statements. Despite a mysterious super PAC boosting Galindo, Garcia won.
In the GOP runoff for that seat, Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), topped John Lujan. Democrats plan to contest the seat in November.
Safe GOP seats. Veteran Alex Mealer beat state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the GOP primary runoff for Texas’ new 9th District. Mealer is the likely new member of Congress for this safe-red seat in the Houston area.
In Texas’ open 19th District, former USDA official Tom Sell easily beat activist Abraham Enriquez to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jodey Arrington.
Jon Bonck, a Trump-backed banker, won the GOP nomination to replace Hunt in Texas’ 38th District.
And Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a leader in the House Freedom Caucus, resoundingly lost his runoff for the Republican attorney general nomination to Mayes Middleton. Roy lost by 11 points. The four-term lawmaker will also lose his seat in Congress.
