The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Top US officials, lawmakers meet with Gantz as Jerusalem fumes

A big week for the future of foreign aid

The Super Tuesday races that will change Capitol Hill

CFPB finalizes credit card late fee crackdown

News: Johnson’s campaign moves

THE TOP

Top US officials, lawmakers meet with Gantz as Jerusalem fumes

Happy Super Tuesday morning.

News: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are both meeting privately Tuesday with Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet and a frequent foil to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

But Speaker Mike Johnson won’t meet with Gantz, according to sources close to the speaker. There was a discussion about holding a bipartisan meeting, but Johnson wasn’t interested. Johnson has spoken to Netanyahu and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer since the outbreak of the war against Hamas in Gaza last year. Gantz met with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday.

Israeli officials are frequent visitors to Washington and to the Capitol. In normal times, this wouldn’t be noteworthy.

But Gantz’s trip to Washington has become a mini-scandal in Israel. The former defense minister is in D.C. against Netanyahu’s wishes. Netanyahu “made it clear to Minister Gantz that the State of Israel only has one prime minister,” according to Ynet, an Israeli media outlet. The Israeli embassy isn’t involved with Gantz’s visit.

We’re told that the meetings with Schumer and Jeffries will be private and other lawmakers won’t be attending.

Gantz also met on Monday with Vice President Kamala Harris and plans to see Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan during his trip. The White House on Monday defended the decision to hold these meetings with Gantz.

“This was a request by Minister Gantz to come to the United States and have meetings,” said John Kirby, the White House national security communications adviser.

Here are a few dynamics worth keeping in mind:

1) Schumer has been critical of Netanyahu, Israel’s longtime premier. Schumer told us in an interview last November that “Netanyahu has become a lot less popular” in recent years. The New York Democrat noted the Oct. 7 attack shook Israelis’ confidence in Netanyahu. Schumer also said Netanyahu is “letting the fanatics run the show.”

Schumer even told us Gantz would defeat Netanyahu “two to one” if an election were held in Israel.

2) The House and Senate Democratic caucuses are filled with lawmakers critical of both Netanyahu’s government and Israel’s deadly military operation in Gaza. The more centrist Gantz opposed Netanyahu’s proposed judiciary overhaul before the war.

In fact, a poll earlier this year showed that Gantz’s political faction would be the largest in the Knesset if elections were held again.

3) Schumer’s and Jeffries’ New York is home to 1.6 million Jews — more Jews than live in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv combined. Schumer is the highest-ranking Jewish elected official in U.S. history. Both New York Democrats have a lot at stake when it comes to their Israel politics.

4) The meetings with Gantz come as Democrats on Capitol Hill have spoken out in greater numbers against Israel’s military operations in Gaza. Hill Democrats are warming to the idea of placing conditions on U.S. military aid for Israel. And lawmakers are pressing Biden — both publicly and privately — to use his leverage over Israel to end the war.

Top administration officials including Biden, Harris and Blinken are increasingly frustrated with Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, which has led to more than 30,000 Palestinian deaths.

Even as U.S. officials take the extraordinary step of air-dropping aid into Gaza, Biden is pressing for a ceasefire-plus-hostage deal by the start of Ramadan, which is less than a week away. White House aides say Hamas won’t agree to any hostage deal.

Congress has struggled when it comes to supporting Israel. It hasn’t passed an aid package since the war began. Johnson has all but given up on it and refuses to put the bipartisan Senate package — which includes aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan — on the floor. More on that in a moment.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Don’t miss: Our Super Tuesday special edition of The Tally will go out later this morning. Check your inboxes and our website for the latest on the battle for the 119th Congress, why we think you should keep your eyes on California, what the leaders of the DSCC and NRSC think of the race to control the Senate, and more.

Today: Join us at 9 a.m. ET for our conversation with Gov. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.) on the news of the day and how private equity supports small business and jobs in Georgia. This conversation is the first event in a two-part series, Investing in Your Community. RSVP here.

LEGISLATIVE STRATEGY

A big week for the future of foreign aid

Aside from the State of the Union Thursday — and the government funding deadline midnight Friday — this is also a big week for Ukraine aid on Capitol Hill.

Let’s get this out of the way. Speaker Mike Johnson isn’t going to put the Senate’s foreign aid bill — which would steer tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan — on the House floor for an up-or-down vote. No matter how many times House Democrats demand it or plot to make it happen, Johnson won’t fold on this.

Ukraine is the key here. Johnson is a Ukraine skeptic himself, even though the Louisiana Republican has said Congress is “not going to abandon Ukraine.” Johnson has complained that President Joe Biden and top administration officials lack “a clear strategy in Ukraine, a path to resolving the conflict, or a plan for adequately ensuring accountability for aid provided by American taxpayers.” Like other Republicans, Johnson wants Biden to take steps toward resolving the U.S.-Mexico border crisis before doing anything on Ukraine.

So there are basically three viable options in the House for aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

1) Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s (R-Pa.) discharge petition. Fitzpatrick’s resolution, which is also backed by Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and a bipartisan group of House members, includes aid to those three key U.S. allies. However, it also has several immigration-related provisions, such as reinstatement of “Remain in Mexico” and expulsion authority for non-asylum-seeking migrants.

Fitzpatrick’s discharge petition is live on Friday.

The bullish view on this strategy is that the border-security provisions could attract some more Republican signatures. That said, a sizable number of House Republicans are opposed to Ukraine aid in principle.

The skeptical view is that House Democrats will never agree to any immigration-related provisions when the Senate bill doesn’t include any of these.

Supporters of Fitzpatrick’s approach tell us they will press Republicans and Democrats to come on board, saying they shouldn’t block aid to Ukraine because of immigration provisions that would help both the border and Biden’s political standing.

2) Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) will have his own discharge petition that calls for a straight up-or-down vote on the $95 billion Senate foreign aid package.

To be honest, this seems like the most straightforward way to get anything done. There are, in fact, at least five House GOP supporters of the Senate package. And if every Democrat signs onto the petition and five Republicans join along, the bill will come up for a vote.

The downside for the GOP’s Ukraine supporters is that there’s no immigration language here. But they can thank their leadership for killing the Senate’s bipartisan border-and-immigration bill.

We’ve heard from some Republicans who say they can’t sign onto a Democratic-led discharge petition, even if they agree with the underlying legislation. For Democrats, there’s also a question of how many progressives will refuse to sign in protest of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza due to the ongoing Israeli military campaign.

3) Or if someone on the GOP side really has guts, they can take down a previous question. If the House Republican leadership brings a bill to the floor under a rule, there is a vote on the previous question. If the minority defeats that, they then have the ability to bring up their own bill for a vote. This happened in April 1988 on the issue of dial-a-porn. Really, we’re not kidding. But that’s the last time this has occurred.

The House Republican leadership doesn’t bring many bills to the floor under a rule anymore thanks to opposition from conservative hardliners. There will be two this week — the Laken Riley Act and a bill on capital formation.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

THE CAMPAIGN

The Super Tuesday races that will change Capitol Hill

Happy Super Tuesday! While many people will be tracking the presidential race, there are a ton of key congressional races we’re keeping an eye on here at Punchbowl News. For more, don’t miss the special edition of the Tally coming out later this morning.

Big-money California Senate primary: The marquee Senate race today is the top-two primary between Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee and Republican Steve Garvey. Schiff, who’s raised gobs of money, is leading in most polls and has the majority of key endorsements. Who will join him in the general election? Porter and Garvey appear to be battling for second.

Which California Democrat will succeed Porter? The nastiest Democratic battle of the day comes in California’s 47th District, where state Sen. Dave Min and Joanna Weiss are vying to replace Porter. Weiss’ allies, which include AIPAC’s super PAC, are hitting Min over a previous drunk driving arrest.

Will there be a Valadao-Salas rematch? Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) is one of the few Republicans in districts that President Joe Biden won by 10 points or more in 2020. A top target for Democrats, Valadao is also facing a challenge from his right flank. Democrats are investing in Rudy Salas, but the failed 2022 candidate is facing an unexpectedly tough primary from Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado.

Who will prevail in the Moore-Carl member-on-member clash? Redistricting meant Alabama GOP Reps. Barry Moore and Jerry Carl are challenging each other in the primary for the state’s 1st District. The contest has quickly gotten messy. Both Republicans have tried to portray their opponent as soft on the border. While former President Donald Trump hasn’t weighed in, both Moore and Carl are trying to tie themselves as closely as possible to Trump.

What Alabama Democrat will punch their ticket to the general? Democrats are almost certain to pick up a new seat in Alabama thanks to court-ordered redistricting of another majority-minority opportunity district. Whoever emerges from the crowded primary — top contenders include state Rep. Napoleon Bracy, former DOJ aide Shomari Figures and Alabama House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels — will be the favorite to win in November.

Will Don Davis face Sandy Smith again? After North Carolina Republicans redistricted three Democrats out of their seats, Rep. Don Davis’ (D-N.C.) seat is the only competitive race left in the Tarheel State. The Congressional Leadership Fund is spending to boost Laurie Buckhout in the GOP primary over unsuccessful 2022 candidate Sandy Smith.

— Max Cohen

CFPB finalizes credit card late fee crackdown

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalized a rule that will sharply curtail the late fees charged by credit card providers, assuming it survives court challenges.

The final version of the regulation will reduce the upper limit of what banks can charge for late fees to $8 — down from the average of about $32 — unless an institution can prove a higher fee is in line with their business costs. That core crackdown is unchanged from what was proposed by regulators in February 2023.

The CFPB said the final rule on late fees would save U.S. consumers as much as $10 billion a year.

And even though the policy targets the largest issuers of credit cards — firms with at least 1 million open accounts — the changes will cover “more than 95% of total outstanding credit card balances,” according to a CFPB release.

The consumer banking world is staunchly opposed to these changes, arguing customers don’t have a problem paying punitive fees when payment deadlines get missed. Retail bankers also argue the proposal could force some banks out of the $1 trillion credit card market.

The CFPB’s efforts here are part of a broader effort from the Biden administration this week “fighting corporate rip-offs.” National Economics Council Director Lael Brainard said on a press call Monday night that “the administration’s actions on banking junk fees alone will save Americans more than $20 billion every year.”

Keep an eye on the courts: The banking trade associations have already sued the CFPB and other financial regulators over regulations they oppose. That’s a shift in how the country’s top bank advocates usually deal with regulatory politics, but they’d argue the Biden administration isn’t quite following the law on process here.

Just last month, banking trades and other advocates sued federal bank regulators over long-running changes to the Community Reinvestment Act. We won’t be surprised if the CFPB’s forays into credit card reform here and elsewhere get a similar treatment in the weeks ahead.

— Brendan Pedersen

LEADER LOOK

News: Johnson’s campaign moves

We have two bits of news for you on Speaker Mike Johnson’s political operation.

First: Johnson is transferring $1.5 million to the NRCC today. That brings Johnson’s total transferred to the campaign arm to $6.5 million since he became speaker in late October.

“Working with the NRCC and our entire team, we will win in battlegrounds across the country and put a stop to President Biden and extreme Democrats’ disastrous agenda,” Johnson told us in a statement.

Second: Johnson and his entire leadership team are endorsing Orlando Sonza, the Republican challenging freshman Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) in a swing seat.

Sonza is a Filipino-American West Point graduate who currently serves as a local prosecutor in Hamilton County, Ohio.

“He will secure the Southern Border, take care of our veterans, and put an end to the disastrous policies of Bidenomics,” Johnson said of Sonza in his endorsement statement.

Landsman unseated longtime former Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) in 2022.

— Max Cohen

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