For months, aides and lawmakers in the House Republican Conference mused that Speaker Mike Johnson was weak and susceptible to a challenge.
All of that chatter may suddenly go silent.
Johnson has spent his last 378 days as speaker crisscrossing America, preaching the gospel of former President Donald Trump, raising cash and predicting that Republicans would sweep the House, Senate and White House on Election Day.
Now, if Republicans hold the majority, Johnson’s position atop the House Republican Conference would be secure.
Johnson has to win a floor vote for speaker. But if Republicans hang on – which may not be clear for days – Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer will remain atop the House GOP.
Across the Capitol, the Senate Republican leadership race between Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Cornyn (R-Texas) and freshly reelected Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is also in full swing following Tuesday’s big night for the GOP. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be able to fulfill his hope of handing a new majority to whoever succeeds him after a record-breaking run in the post.
Multiple GOP senators and aides told us Thune, Cornyn and Scott have been working the phones hard. They’re sending texts and making phone calls in a bid to line up support. Thune, the minority whip, might have the inside track since he’s already in leadership.
But Cornyn is lobbying his colleagues very hard. Cornyn raised a lot of money for senators this cycle and in the past, and he has a lot of chits out there to cash in. He’s popular and well-respected, although there are some questions from conservatives over his support for the CHIPS Act and a gun-control bill.
Senate Republicans will hold their leadership elections on the same days as their House GOP counterparts — Nov. 13. That doesn’t give any of the trio much time to formally nail their votes, although the contest has been percolating at a low level for months.
Back to the House for a moment: There are two big questions about the GOP leadership structure that we now need to think about. Did NRCC Chair Richard Hudson do enough to put himself in the mix to be Energy and Commerce Committee chair? Reps. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) and Bob Latta (R-Ohio) have been battling it out for months. But Hudson could make the case that after a night like this he deserves the gavel.
If House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik goes into the Trump administration, as is widely assumed, that will open up the No. 4 position. Many people have mentioned Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) as the favorite. But Hinson may want to run for Senate when Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) retires. Running for the Senate after being in the leadership is not advisable.
First in Punchbowl News: Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), House GOP conference secretary, plans to run for her position again, according to her spokesman.
