The polls are closed in every state, but vote counting in some parts of the country may continue for days if there isn’t a clear winner.
We don’t yet know if Republicans will hold onto their slim House majority. The battleground races out west are far from settled.
And as expected, the Senate has flipped to the GOP — though the party’s margins could grow significantly once races are called in the Blue Wall states and out West. We’re talking about a potential 56 seats for Republicans. They haven’t held that many Senate seats since the 71st Congress.
The Senate: As of this writing, Republicans have secured a Senate majority of at least 51 seats. If Tim Sheehy holds on to defeat Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), that’s 52.
Looming GOP wins in the Blue Wall states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — could pad their majority further to as many as 55 seats. There’s also the Nevada Senate race. As of now, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is trailing GOP challenger Sam Brown by roughly 2,300 votes. Rosen could still pull this out, however.
If former President Donald Trump can carry GOP candidates to victories in the Blue Wall states, that would be a dramatic turnaround from four years ago, when Republicans openly blamed Trump for dragging them down and ultimately losing the Senate majority. In 2022, you’ll recall, many of Trump’s preferred candidates won their primaries but lost the general election in what Republicans believed were winnable states.
But Republicans made a conscious decision this cycle to keep Trump close when it came to primaries and endorsements — a strategy driven by NRSC Chair Steve Daines.
Republican challengers in the battleground Senate races hugged Trump tightly in the final stretch as polls continued to show Trump out-performing them in their respective states. It may take a bit until we know whether it worked, but as of now, most of the GOP candidates are running almost even with Trump in the outstanding races.
The Arizona Senate race is far from being officially called yet, although Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) seems on track to defeat Kari Lake, who did little to try to appeal beyond the MAGA base.
The House: California, California, California. There are five toss-ups in the Golden State that remain uncalled. Democrats need to win as many as they can to win the majority.
We’re looking at GOP Reps. Michelle Steel (Calif.), Mike Garcia (Calif.), Ken Calvert (Calif.), David Valadao (Calif.) and John Duarte (Calif.). Other key uncalled western races include Reps. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.).
House Republicans are playing a lot of defense here. There’s still a lot of counting to go, so remain patient. But the trends are good for the GOP.
None of the Michigan races are called yet. Republicans are leading in the open 7th District and have a good flip opportunity there. Plus, we’re still waiting to see if Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) or Don Bacon (R-Neb.) survive. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) is winning a very close race as well.
