Control of the House is still up in the air.
But if Republicans do hold on to power — and it seems like they will — Speaker Mike Johnson will again be forced to govern with a paper-thin majority.
Most top Republicans and Democrats say the GOP will end up with between 218 and 221 House seats. It’s even possible that they end up with 218 seats on the nose.
This will once again make it extraordinarily difficult for Johnson to do almost everything, ranging from passing a House rules package, to clearing a budget resolution, to passing the complicated tax-cut extension that President-elect Donald Trump is so eager to sign into law.
Johnson spent much of the fall telling donors that he was going to grow the majority, possibly to a double-digit margin.
“It’s going to be easier in the new Congress that starts in January because we’re going to have a wider margin,” Johnson said in October in a mansion in the suburbs of Philadelphia. “We’re going to have more people, and it’s going to be an easier job.”
But it’s now clear that it won’t be much easier.
Now to be sure, it’s very hard to imagine House Republicans standing in Trump’s way on just about anything. There will be a tremendous appetite to unify and push through the president’s agenda, especially during the first 100 days. The makeup of this conference is also far more MAGA-friendly than the last time Trump was in power.
“I don’t care if it’s 218, 219, 220. I don’t give a damn,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer recently told us on the campaign trail. “As long as we have the majority, we’re going to be successful.”
But there will be zero room for error. Absences, illnesses or unexpected resignations could tip the balance of power on any given day. A slim margin will make Trump’s team hesitant to pull House members into the administration.
The math: The final House composition will come down to two uncalled races in Arizona and six in California. Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) are in tough reelection contests, with Democrats feeling more optimistic about flipping Ciscomani’s seat.
In California, it’s still too close to call in the reelection races for GOP Reps. John Duarte, Mike Garcia, Michelle Steel, David Valadao and Ken Calvert. In the state’s open 47th District, it’s also neck-and-neck between Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh. Democrats have the best shot at flipping Duarte and Garcia’s seats here.
If Democrats want to take the majority, they’d have to win six of these eight seats. We’re making some assumptions here and predicting Democrats win Maine’s 2nd District, Colorado’s 8th District, Washington’s 3rd District, Ohio’s 9th District and Oregon’s 5th District. Democratic candidates are leading here, but the races aren’t called officially yet. If any of these Democrats fall, the math gets even harder for the party.
New Rules: One of the more immediate challenges for Johnson will be hashing out a new rules package to govern the House during the 119th Congress. We’re told House GOP leaders have already begun workshopping some ideas in an effort to build consensus on the overall package.
But each of the conference’s ideological factions — from the House Freedom Caucus to the Republican Governance Group to the Main Street Caucus — is expected to put forward its own ideas about the package. All those groups started serious internal discussions this week about their preferences.
A major flashpoint is going to center on the motion to vacate. Johnson, as well as moderates and members of the so-called “governing wing,” want to raise the threshold from the current one-member level and take the threat of ousting another speaker off the table.
But we’ve talked to several conservatives who are intent on keeping the MTV intact as is. It’s going to be very difficult to change the rule if Republicans only have a couple of votes to spare.
The House GOP will organize next week to consider their internal conference rules. The big package to govern the House will get a floor vote when the new Congress begins. It will need to be negotiated and introduced by the speaker.
And one other point to consider. Republicans have struggled with procedural votes all year. This will continue to be a struggle under Trump.
Taxes: A thin margin could also make Republicans’ hopes of quickly passing a big tax bill through the filibuster-dodging reconciliation process more painful.
The House GOP will need to figure out what deficit hawks in the conference are willing to stomach. Extending the Trump tax cuts alone could come with a nearly $5 trillion price tag, and that’s not counting the president-elect’s many, many new tax cut promises. A handful of Republicans could force their party to hunt for a lot more offsets, and that won’t be an easy road.
House Republicans from blue states like New York, California and New Jersey would also get a lot more leverage to fight against the cap on deducting state and local taxes, or SALT. The GOP created the $10,000 limit on SALT deductions back in 2017. Most Republicans are happy with it, even though Trump said he’d “get SALT back” during the campaign.
Allowing more SALT deductions gets pricey fast. House Republicans had a sizable enough margin in 2017 to lose votes over SALT, so lacking that cushion could get messy.
Furthermore, Politico reported that House Republicans are discussing a tax package that would offset cuts with tariffs. That would be quite complicated and challenging.
