Longtime Virginia Democratic Rep. Bobby Scott is eyeing a bid to be governor of Virginia, according to multiple sources familiar with his thinking.
The 77-year-old Scott would be running against Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who didn’t seek reelection to the House to seek the governorship next year.
Scott’s mulling the race comes as some Virginia Democrats have raised concerns about the party’s standing with Black voters.
Scott, the top Democrat on the House Education and Workforce, told us he’s looking at the opportunity but is also staying mindful of his House duties. Scott repeatedly noted the razor-thin House margins when discussing the issue.
“Usually people running statewide take about a three-month leave and I’m not ready to do that, but we’ll see. I haven’t ruled it out,” Scott said in an interview.
Top Democratic sources are doubtful Scott will get into this race. But Scott has been privately talking to colleagues about it. Scott has laid out his case and what his strategy would be if he entered the primary race against Spanberger.
Several senior Virginia Democrats expressed concerns with Spanberger’s ability to excite Black voters in the state, especially after a disappointing presidential election where Vice President Kamala Harris underperformed among voters of color.
Scott, the dean of the Virginia delegation, was the first Black member elected to Congress from the state since Reconstruction. And whoever ends up being the Democratic nominee will likely end up facing Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears — the first Black woman elected to statewide office in Virginia.
One Virginia state lawmaker told us Sears could peel off Black voters from Democrats. The Democratic nominee will have to “reintroduce themselves to Black voters,” the lawmaker said. Others said Scott could make the primary competitive.
Sears challenged Scott back in 2004 to represent Virginia’s 3rd District, a majority Black district that Scott has held since 1993. Scott won with 69% of the vote, the second-worst performance of his career. Which gives you an idea of Scott’s hold on that district.
For her part, Spanberger’s campaign said she has “made consistent outreach to all corners and communities of Virginia” since launching her gubernatorial bid in November 2023.
Spanberger’s allies added she has a fundraising edge as well as likely a higher name ID than Scott. Spanberger also has a significant timing advantage and has already been campaigning all over the state.
And Spanberger has experience winning voters outside the Democratic base, running three successful House campaigns in a purple district. Spanberger cultivated a reputation for bipartisanship on Capitol Hill.
“I’ve supported Abigail since the day she [announced] and she’s the candidate out there right now and we’re gonna make sure we win this seat,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said.
GOP outlook: Republicans are confident in Sears’ ability to beat Spanberger, given the Youngkin administration’s popularity.
Recent polls show Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s job approval rating has consistently been well above 50%. Youngkin has signaled Sears’ candidacy will be a continuation of his administration.
Sears has also been seeking to draw more Black and immigrant voters into the Republican Party since being elected. President-elect Donald Trump, of course, made strong inroads with voters of color this election cycle and improved his margins in Virginia.
Some critics of Sears, however, noted that she may have issues going off script or being undisciplined in messaging. The race, which will fall in the middle of Trump’s presidency next year, could also serve as a referendum on Trump and Republicans.
