NEWS: Schumer and Jeffries huddle in Brooklyn

IN THIS EDITION

Schumer and Jeffries huddle after Democratic implosion

The list: The 26 House Dems the NRCC is targeting

A sneak peek at the House GOP agenda for the next few weeks

The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI

THE TOP

Schumer and Jeffries huddle after Democratic implosion

Happy Monday morning.

The House and Senate are out this week.

Let’s discuss the fallout from Friday’s CR vote and what it means for both parties.

Some news: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries met in Brooklyn on Sunday as Democrats were left reeling from a government shutdown fight that exposed bitter internal divisions over how to take on President Donald Trump.

Jeffries and other top House Democrats have been critical of Schumer’s decision to allow the House GOP funding bill to advance and avoid a shutdown. In an extraordinary press conference on Friday, Jeffries refused multiple times to say whether he has confidence in Schumer.

Democrats: With that news, it’s fair to say the state of the Democratic Party is poor. And we’re being kind here.

Schumer is facing calls from some House Democrats and progressive groups to step down or be replaced.

That’s not going to happen. Schumer remains firmly in control of the Senate Democratic Caucus, despite his critics. Schumer also isn’t up for reelection until 2028, when he’s 78, which means calls for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) or someone else to primary him are wildly premature.

It’s also important to note that, based on our conversations with Democratic senators, many more Senate Democrats than just the nine who voted with Schumer agreed with his ultimate decision. As we wrote last week, this is the “Vote no, hope yes” group.

Yet that’s not to say Schumer isn’t damaged by what happened last week. He is.

Schumer misplayed the shutdown showdown with Republicans, making tactical decisions on the fly seemingly without considering the inevitable endgame. Schumer said last Wednesday, after the House had already passed the CR, that Senate Majority Leader John Thune didn’t have the votes to pass it, in essence threatening a filibuster.

Yet Schumer already knew he’d have to fold, which is what made his Thursday reversal so much more stunning.

Schumer is navigating the fallout exactly how you would expect — working the phones throughout the weekend.

Schumer also has several previously scheduled public appearances and interviews this week related to his new book on antisemitism. Progressive activist groups are already organizing and encouraging protests.

It starts with an event tonight in Baltimore. On Tuesday, Schumer will be interviewed by Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) in New York. (Take a look at what Torres has said about Schumer’s CR decision.) Schumer will then return to D.C. on Wednesday for an event at Sixth & I. On Thursday, he’ll be in Philadelphia.

The relationship between Schumer and House Democrats — including Jeffries and other top Democrats in that chamber — definitely needs work as well. There simply can’t be any daylight between the two caucuses if they have any hope of being an effective opposition party.

Yet Democrats still seem to think this is the old Republican Party, or even the GOP of the 118th Congress. It’s not.

Republicans: To understand what’s going on with the GOP, you have to understand who Hill Republicans are now.

One hundred and fifty out of the current 218 House Republicans (69%) have been elected since 2016, when Trump won his first term. Recently-elected GOP senators and the conservative wing of the Senate Republican Conference are fully loyal to Trump.

The Bush-era leaders of the GOP from 2017, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, are gone or going. The current Republican leadership is 100% pro-Trump. Speaker Mike Johnson wouldn’t have his job if it wasn’t for Trump, while Thune must pay tribute daily to the Trumpian worldview.

Now think about this — the entire House Republican Conference voted to raise the debt limit, which is stunning. Virtually the entire House Republican Conference voted for a CR as well, something that cost Kevin McCarthy and John Boehner their jobs.

Trump is firing tens of thousands of federal workers overnight. He’s gutting federal agencies and departments, which will directly affect all of these GOP lawmakers’ constituents. When protests broke out at Republican town halls over this, the House GOP leadership told their members to stop holding town halls instead of calling on Trump to change direction.

During the negotiations over government funding, Democrats assumed that House Republicans couldn’t pass a CR on their own. Democrats didn’t pay attention to the budget resolution vote or comprehend fully what it meant.

Yet that was the moment when the dynamics of the funding fight changed. If conservatives would vote for that, they’d vote for a CR if Trump told them to. Democrats were still seeking language restricting Trump’s ability to redirect funding, although House Republican leaders knew that, with Trump playing the heavy, they could pass a CR on their own. Because Johnson didn’t need Democratic votes, that threw the responsibility for a government shutdown right onto Schumer.

“The Democrats are still running their 2017 resistance playbook. They are no match for the team they’re facing today,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said.

There’s lots of time for Democrats — including Schumer — to recover. Democrats can force Republicans to carry a debt-limit increase on their own. They can hammer Republicans over slashing Medicaid and social programs to pay for tax cuts. There may be a recession. Trump’s chaotic governing style isn’t popular. With 20 months until the election, there’s no need for panic yet.

— John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

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THE HOUSE MAP

The list: The 26 House Dems the NRCC is targeting

News: The NRCC’s initial target list for the 2026 midterms includes 26 House Democrats, marking the opening salvo in the House GOP’s uphill battle to maintain control of the chamber. Let’s take a look:

In California, Republicans are targeting Reps. Josh Harder, Adam Gray, George Whitesides, Derek Tran and Dave Min. Gray, Whitesides and Tran all unseated GOP incumbents in November.

In New York, the NRCC is singling out Reps. Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen and Josh Riley. All three flipped Republican seats in the past year.

Three Nevada Democrats — Reps. Susie Lee, Dina Titus and Steven Horsford — are on the NRCC’s list. National Republicans largely avoided spending any resources in those races in 2024.

In the Midwest, Republicans see chances to knock off Democratic Reps. Kristen McDonald Rivet (Mich.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Emilia Sykes (Ohio) and Frank Mrvan (Ind.). Both McDonald Rivet and Sykes have been floated as potential Senate candidates in 2026.

In the South, Democratic Reps. Darren Soto (Fla.), Jared Moskowitz (Fla.), Don Davis (N.C.) and Eugene Vindman (Va.) are on the target list.

A number of members representing seats with significant Latino populations are deemed in play by the NRCC: Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar (Texas), Vicente Gonzalez (Texas), Nellie Pou (N.J.) and Gabe Vasquez (N.M.).

New Hampshire Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who is exploring a run for Senate, is also on the target list.

Two leaders of the revamped Blue Dog Coalition round out the list: Democratic Reps. Jared Golden (Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.).

Nine of the NRCC targets are Democratic freshmen. Thirteen of the 26 are in districts that President Donald Trump won in 2024.

“House Republicans are in the majority and on offense,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said in a statement. “Republicans are taking the fight straight to these House Democrats in their districts, and we will unseat them next fall.”

Frontline comparison: The DCCC released its list of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents — Frontliners — earlier this month. Reps. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.), John Mannion (D-N.Y.) and Janelle Bynum (D-Ore.) all made the Frontline list but aren’t considered NRCC targets. And while Soto, Moskowitz and Pappas aren’t classified as Frontliners, the NRCC sees them as vulnerable.

— Max Cohen

THE HOUSE

A sneak peek at the House GOP agenda for the next few weeks

News: Now that the government is funded through September, House Republicans are moving onto a slew of other bills over the next month, including overturning some Biden administration regulations.

The House is out this week. But when the chamber returns next week, Republican leaders will take up a number of bills.

March 24 week. The Deterrent Act, introduced by Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-Wash.) will get consideration. This legislation is aimed at tightening the disclosure requirements for U.S. colleges and universities that get money from foreign governments. A similar bill passed the House last Congress. Thirty-one Democrats voted for that bill.

H.J. Res 24, sponsored by Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), will be on the floor. This resolution attempts to overturn a Biden administration energy regulation for walk-in coolers and walk-in freezers.

H.J. Res 75, offered by freshman Rep. Craig Goldman (R-Texas), will also be considered. This resolution seeks to overturn energy conservation regulations for commercial refrigerators and freezers.

March 31 week. During the last week of March, the House will once again take up the SAVE Act. This is Rep. Chip Roy’s (R-Texas) bill. You may remember, the SAVE Act requires voters to prove American citizenship when voting. This legislation passed in the 118th Congress. Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine), Don Davis (D-N.C.), Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) are the ones to watch on this bill.

April 7 week. The House Republican leadership thinks that they may be able to consider a House-Senate budget resolution for reconciliation this week. Consider us skeptical, of course. But we will see if GOP congressional leaders make progress over the next few weeks. There could be additional Congressional Review Act resolutions on the floor this week.

– Jake Sherman

ICYMI

The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI

We launched the second segment of our series: The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI, which explores the intersection between the ever-evolving technology and cybersecurity.

This segment looked at the benefits and potential drawbacks to how AI is being used in the cybersecurity space. It includes a feature interview with Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), who discusses the future of what these two areas will look like intertwined.

Check out our project here and listen to the podcast here.

– Mica Soellner

DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD

Miller Strategies, helmed by Jeff Miller, one of the Republican Party’s top fundraisers, has signed a slew of clients: Andreessen Horowitz, Nasdaq, Nexstar Media Group, ​Better School for a Better Future, FMX, Hewlett Packard, Nareit, NuScale Power, Palo Alto Networks, Tegna, Zoom Communications and Tether.

Akin Gump is now lobbying for Yale University. Former Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas), a 1969 Yale graduate, is on the account.

Bally’s Corporation, the gambling company, has hired Carlos Trujillo and Continental Strategy to lobby. Trujillo served as ambassador to the Organization of American States during the first Trump administration.

– Jake Sherman

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