The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Schumer folds on funding and Democrats are furious

DelBene dishes on Dems’ path to winning the House

Hern on reconciliation and the GOP’s road ahead

How Senate retirements could cause problems for House Dems

Kelly, Rounds talk space policy

THE TOP

Schumer folds on funding and Democrats are furious

Happy Friday morning.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s decision to back the House-passed government funding measure effectively puts an end to a shutdown fight that exposed bitter partisan disputes over federal spending.

But the intra-party disputes among Hill Democrats are just getting started. The Democratic base — where most of the money and campaign support comes from — is furious, berating Schumer for helping President Donald Trump and Republicans pass a funding package that most Democrats loathe.

First, let’s run through what to expect today on Capitol Hill. Then we’ll get into the political dynamics.

The Senate will vote this afternoon to overcome a filibuster of the House’s continuing resolution, which funds federal agencies through Sept. 30. Schumer’s announcement is expected to unlock the requisite Democratic votes to help Republicans advance the funding measure.

The exact details of what will happen next are unclear. Both sides are working to secure a time agreement allowing senators to finish up before the midnight shutdown deadline and head home for a weeklong recess. Any such agreement will likely allow for some amendment votes.

Now onto Democrats. What a mess this has become.

A government-funding fight that began with Democrats demanding restrictions on Trump, Elon Musk and DOGE has ended with Democrats folding, and now sniping bitterly at each other.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his leadership team distanced themselves from Schumer’s decision — but didn’t name him — in a statement Thursday night. Other House Democrats took direct aim at Schumer, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Even Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee and Schumer ally, thinks it’s a big mistake.

Let’s be blunt here: Democrats picked a fight they couldn’t win and caved without getting anything in return.

We’ll also note that it’s more than five months into FY 2025 already. Even with another month of negotiation – what Democrats were asking for – it’s still not clear that they would’ve notched any policy wins.

And there’s a reason Republicans put Democrats in this position – because they know Democrats would eventually cave. And they did.

During this whole fight, Democrats never managed to put Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Trump in a tough spot. There are plenty of policies House Democrats could’ve asked for in the CR — more money for certain programs, for instance — that would’ve placed Republicans in a bind. But they never made the case publicly for anything like that.

Senate Democrats, meanwhile, essentially tried to have it both ways. They spent the last few days — which included three long and contentious lunch meetings — warning each other in private about the grave dangers of forcing a government shutdown. But in front of TV cameras, they were trashing the House GOP CR and insisting they wouldn’t vote for the funding measure. This won them praise from progressives, activist groups and House Democrats.

Schumer, who didn’t take a public position until last night, fired a warning shot on Wednesday when he said Republicans didn’t have enough Democratic votes to pass the CR, basically threatening a filibuster. In the meantime, Senate Democrats pushed for a short-term CR intended to buy time for a bipartisan funding deal that was never going anywhere.

This set up the Democratic base for disappointment for seemingly no reason.

Progressives think Trump is already damaged by the often chaotic start to his second term. The stock market is slumping and public angst over his handling of the economy is growing. Progressives believed a shutdown would’ve further contributed to the appearance of an out-of-control president and forced Republicans to give in.

Yet that’s an indirect strategy at best, and it may not have worked. Progressives also had no answer to how they would end a shutdown if Trump and Republicans didn’t back down.

Let’s talk about Schumer. First, we need to acknowledge that this was a lose-lose situation for Schumer, who knew he’d get pummeled by the left for allowing the CR to pass or end up shouldering the blame for a shutdown if he held firm.

On substance, Schumer feels he did what’s required of party leaders — making tough decisions and taking the heat that comes along with that. In this case, there were Democrats in the “Vote no, hope yes” camp who Schumer was speaking for as well.

“We have to make these decisions based on what is best for not only your party, but for your country,” Schumer said. Schumer also quickly posted a NYT op-ed justifying his case.

But here’s the problem: Schumer had been making those same arguments against a shutdown for days in private. Yet he let this drag out, giving Democrats a false sense of hope that the caucus was actually going to fight.

The New York Democrat held a pen-and-pad with reporters Thursday night and defended his decision, saying a shutdown would be the worst possible outcome because it would give Trump “complete freedom” to decide which parts of the government should be funded.

“A shutdown gives Trump and his minions the keys to the city and the country,” Schumer said. “And I thought that had to be avoided.”

Schumer made the point as well that there would be no clear off-ramp from a shutdown. This is especially apt given how progressives and the party’s base were clamoring for a shutdown as a way to fight Trump.

Here’s the lesson from this episode: When you have no cards, fold them early.

— Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

The Daily Punch 🥊 With new episodes every weekday morning, The Daily Punch brings you inside Capitol Hill, the White House and Washington all in less than 15 minutes. Listen to today’s episode now.

THE CAMPAIGN

DelBene dishes on Dems’ path to winning the House

LEESBURG, Va. — It’s only been a couple months of Trump 2.0, but DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash.) already sees the president’s moves – from drastic DOGE cuts to bigtime tariffs – putting more House seats in play for Democrats.

We sat down with DelBene during House Democrats’ annual retreat to talk about the path to the House majority in 2026. Midterm elections usually see the House flip away from the president’s party, so Democrats have the edge. Still, taking the House will be a critical test after a bruising 2024 cycle for the party.

Let’s get into the key things DelBene told us.

On Florida and New York specials: Three Republicans – Reps. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), Mike Waltz (Fla.) and Matt Gaetz (Fla.) – who departed for Trump administration roles are teeing up special elections in Florida and New York. They’re all red seats, a challenge that DelBene acknowledged. But she didn’t rule out some surprises, saying these are “unusual times” as some Republicans face tough town halls with constituents angry about DOGE’s cuts.

Here’s DelBene:

Dems’ top targets: DelBene said Democrats have opportunities to flip seats in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona.

But she believes the list will grow. DelBene said “more and more” districts will come into play for Democrats because Republicans are hewing to President Donald Trump and “not standing up for their districts.”

What’s different this time: We also asked the Washington Democrat what’s going to be different in the midterms. Democrats were confident about winning the House in 2024, yet fell short.

DelBene pointed to a different political environment without a presidential election in play. She also said Democrats will benefit from candidates focused on their own communities’ needs while holding Trump and House Republicans accountable for massive government restructuring.

“It’s only been a couple months and we’ve seen the damage that Republicans have done already,” DelBene said. “We’re going to continue to hold them accountable for their promises that they’ve broken, and for the damage they’ve done for working families.”

On the core 2026 message: When it comes to the main issue that’s going to define the 2026 cycle, DelBene said affordability and high costs will be the biggest factors once again.

“The main issue in terms of making sure that families feel like they can thrive, get ahead: Affordability, costs and addressing costs for American people,” DelBene said. “Top issue last cycle. Absolutely will be a top issue again as we head into 2026.”

– Laura Weiss

THE TAX FIGHT

Hern on reconciliation and the GOP’s road ahead

There are a lot of big GOP voices on the House Ways and Means Committee as Republicans work to produce a tax bill. Among them, Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) has once again carved out a notable role for himself.

The Oklahoma Republican is no stranger to grabbing public attention. He jumped into the drawn-out speaker race in 2023 after Kevin McCarthy was ousted, for one. On Ways and Means, Hern won himself a prime spot leading Republicans’ 2025 tax prep group focused on international taxes, a huge priority for big companies.

Hern has a leadership role as chair of the Republican Policy Committee, and he’s been a part of many closed-door meetings in the speaker’s office and White House to plot out reconciliation plans.

We sat down with Hern to talk all things reconciliation this week, as Ways and Means Republicans privately huddled on tax plans.

The tax debate: Hern made the point that Republicans have to consider what helped President Donald Trump win not just the election but the popular vote in 2024, pointing to three of his big tax cut pitches: getting rid of taxes on tips, overtime pay and seniors’ Social Security. These proposals will be competing with other priorities for the $4.5 trillion set aside for taxes under the House-passed budget resolution.

“You can’t get amnesia and forget that the reason you can even have this conversation is because President Trump won,” Hern said.

But none of the tax cuts can be carried out until House and Senate Republican leaders work out an agreement on reconciliation instructions. As we reported, there’s tension brewing between the two chambers over the budget blueprint.

Hern told us that Senate Republicans can make some “structural tweaks” or “process formalities” – like the “current policy baseline” to make it easier to permanently extend tax cuts. But big changes that give more room for taxes and also mandate fewer spending cuts won’t pass the House, he warned. Hern also said $1.5 trillion in cuts is likely the floor for what House spending hawks need to pass a resolution.

Hern had a pretty stark message for the Senate on what that means. The fifth-term lawmaker said if Senate Republicans make changes too big, they risk the package falling apart and the GOP having to negotiate a tax bill with Democrats in January. That would be a disaster for Republicans.

Plus, Hern pointed to White House support for the House’s plan for one bill and said it’s the Senate that needs to catch up.

“The Senate needs to figure out how they can save face and get on board,” Hern said.

The House dynamics: We also talked with Hern about the role he’ll play moving forward as the House works to pass a tax bill and navigate a razor-thin majority. Hern called for Ways and Means members to make the rounds to factions of the GOP conference — with Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) to back him up — and bring along GOP members they’re close with.

On the whole, Hern said he plans to play a “nurturing, coaxing” role getting Republicans on board with a tax package. The GOP leadership will need to put “verifiable checkpoints along the way” because of trust issues with Republicans from past leadership, he added.

– Laura Weiss

THE MAP

How Senate retirements could cause problems for House Dems

Ambitious House Democrats eyeing Senate seats could complicate the party’s chances of flipping the House in 2026.

Senate Democratic retirements in New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota are all tempting battle-tested House incumbents to consider ditching their current job to run for statewide office. And House Republicans are gleefully approaching the prospect of not having to face formidable incumbents who have pushed their districts out of play.

In Minnesota, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) is seriously considering a run to replace Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.). Craig was first elected when she flipped a GOP seat in 2018. In November, Craig beat Republican Joe Teirab by 13 points.

In Michigan, Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.) is considering a Senate run after being encouraged to hop into the race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). McDonald Rivet, a freshman who’s seen as a rising Democratic star, won Michigan’s 8th District by six points even as President Donald Trump carried the seat in the 2024 presidential election.

And in New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) is weighing a run after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) announced this week she wouldn’t seek reelection. Like Craig, Pappas arrived at the House following the 2018 “Blue Wave.” Pappas beat GOP candidate Russell Prescott in November by eight points to represent New Hampshire’s 1st District.

In all these House seats, Republicans hope that open races without the Democratic incumbents will increase their odds of victory. With the House GOP majority standing at an incredibly slim margin, every seat counts in 2026.

“The math is in our favor,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said in a statement. “We will capitalize on this momentum on the battleground and retain and grow our Republican majority.”

In Ohio, Frontline Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio) — who both are at risk of being redistricted into unfavorable terrain — are being urged to run statewide. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is also seen as a statewide candidate in 2026.

Despite the prospects of playing defense in tough seats, DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told us in a statement that “no one is better at recruiting and working to elect genuine and authentic candidates than the DCCC — and we’ll do it again this cycle.”

In 2024, Democrats won open seats in California’s 47th District and Virginia’s 7th District, while Republicans won the open seat in Michigan’s 7th District.

Republicans aren’t immune from open seat headaches either. Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and John James (R-Mich.) are seen as likely candidates for governor next fall. Democrats will be closely competing in New York’s 17th District and Michigan’s 10th District, both seats that received heavy outside spending in 2024.

— Max Cohen

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Kelly, Rounds talk space policy

ICYMI: Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) joined us for a wide-ranging conversation Thursday about key news events and space policy.

Both Kelly and Rounds acknowledged a government shutdown would be harmful for the country and expressed wanting to have had a shorter term measure and a return to full appropriations.

The two senators also said the United States needs to strengthen its space defence capabilities to be able to fend off any attacks from adversaries.

You can watch the full video here.

– Joy Mazur

MOMENTS

CLIPS