The first special elections of President Donald Trump’s second term saw voters move toward Democrats. Republicans held two safe-red seats in Florida, but by far smaller margins than just five months ago.
And in Wisconsin, Democrats won a state Supreme Court race that could reshape the 2026 House map. Here’s what we learned:
House Republicans filled two open seats to expand their tight margins. In two open seats vacated by former Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), GOP Reps.-elect Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine prevailed over their Democratic opponents.
Republicans were always the overwhelming favorites to win both seats, which both voted for Trump in November by more than 30 points. Patronis won by 15 points and Fine won by 14 points. This is a clear sign of momentum shifting toward Democrats.
House GOP leaders had raised concerns about Fine’s race and worried that his lackluster fundraising could open the door for a huge upset. But even though Democrat Josh Weil massively outraised Fine, the overwhelming GOP lean of the 6th District meant he never got close to flipping the seat.
It’s important to note that in the buildup to Tuesday, Republicans blamed Fine for being a uniquely poor candidate. But Patronis, who didn’t receive any similar criticism, won by a similar margin as Fine.
NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella trolled House Democrats for “setting their cash ablaze.” On the Democratic side, House Majority PAC released a memo arguing the results showed “that the political headwinds are firmly at our backs heading into 2026.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries took a victory lap on MSNBC and declared that 60 House Republicans in seats Trump won by 16 points or under are now Democratic targets. That’s a very ambitious goal.
Democrats win critical Wisconsin contest. Democratic-aligned candidate Susan Crawford defeated former GOP Attorney General Brad Schimel to win an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
Elon Musk dumped $25 million into an unsuccessful bid to elect Schimel.
Republicans had warned in the buildup to the race that a Crawford victory could lead to the court hearing a case that could draw new House maps in the state. A potential challenge to Wisconsin’s House maps could spell trouble for Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.).
