Voters in Florida’s 6th District are heading to the polls today in an increasingly competitive election that few predicted would be close. That’s one of two specials in the Sunshine State. Plus, there’s a Wisconsin Supreme Court race that will have implications for the House map next cycle. Here’s what we’re watching:
Florida’s 6th District. Let’s start with this: Republican Randy Fine is the favorite to win and replace former Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) in the House. But the fact that it even needs to be said is a huge concern for Republicans.
In a seat won by Waltz by 33 points just five months ago, Democrats and Republicans we’ve spoken to believe that Fine is likely to win by 10 to 15 points. That would be a large swing toward Democrats and would present some warning signs for the GOP.
As we’ve chronicled, Fine’s fellow Republicans are going after their candidate for lackluster fundraising and underwhelming campaigning. Fine’s Democratic counterpart, Josh Weil, has raised over $9 million in the race, a staggering amount for a first-time candidate in what’s supposed to be a safe red seat.
The top players in the Republican Party, including President Donald Trump, have gotten involved to boost Fine down the stretch.
Florida’s 1st District: There isn’t any GOP worry about holding this heavily red open seat, where Republican Jimmy Patronis is running against Democrat Gay Valimont. This special election is to fill former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) seat. Trump won this seat by 37 points in November.
Wisconsin Supreme Court: The ostensibly nonpartisan state supreme court election has seen tremendous outside investment from Elon Musk to back GOP-aligned candidate Brad Schimel. Schimel, the former Republican attorney general, is up against Democratic-aligned Susan Crawford.
The race will decide whether the state’s high court will remain under 4-3 liberal control or flip to a conservative majority. Redistricting of Wisconsin’s House seats is one potential case that could come before the court before 2026.
