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April 30, 2025
Presented by RED Coalition
You voted for American energy dominance—and the Trump Administration is delivering. From solar to oil & gas, they’re unleashing it all. More energy. More jobs. Higher wages. America is booming—because when we lead, we win.
THE TOP
Some tests for the Trump economic agenda
Happy Wednesday morning.
Republicans are bracing for several flashpoints today that will tell us a lot about the economic and political ramifications of President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.
First up this morning is the gross domestic product report for the first quarter of 2025. Then we’ll see whether Senate Republican leaders can hold the line on a key tariff vote expected this evening.
Data watch: The Trump administration will receive its GDP report card for Q1 2025 at 8:30 a.m. from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The period won’t fully capture the onset of Trump’s tariffs in early April. But expect plenty of headlines, especially if the data shows the U.S. economy is contracting.
The U.S. economy grew by 2.4% in the last quarter of the Biden administration. Estimates for today’s GDP report range from 0.8% growth to a contraction of 0.4%.
Then at 10 a.m., the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data for March will be released. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for measuring inflation.
The GDP snapshot, in particular, comes at a critical moment for Trump. His poll numbers on the economy have nosedived. Wall Street hasn’t had this rough of a run during a new president’s first 100 days since Richard Nixon in 1973. Consumer sentiment has slumped. Trump’s trade war could lead to mass layoffs in the trucking and retail industries.
However, the overall U.S. economic picture is muddy, and reliable numbers have been hard to come by. It’ll still take some time to see how major indicators such as consumer spending, the unemployment rate and inflation levels have changed since Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2.
Tariff tiff: Meanwhile, Senate Republican leaders are working aggressively behind the scenes to kill a disapproval resolution intended to block Trump’s across-the-board reciprocal tariffs.
Despite initial skepticism about Trump’s tariff strategy, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has backed up Trump’s efforts and worked to quash opposition, even as he acknowledges the potential political downsides.
“I think [Trump’s] numbers on the economy, as you point out, may be related in some respects to the policy discussions being held about tariffs,” Thune said Tuesday. “When you’re going through all this, you’ve got to take the long view. And I think his policy decisions are the right ones.”
But a terrible GDP report could dramatically change that dynamic. Senators are anxious to see trade deals come together before a trade war saps the U.S. economy.
“From a time standpoint, that’s got to get settled down this quarter, or I think it creates some serious headwinds, economically and politically,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sought to assuage GOP fears of a prolonged trade war Tuesday, telling Senate Republicans that he expects multiple trade deals to be announced in the coming weeks and months.
Pain points: Most Republicans, though, aren’t willing to give the president and his trade negotiators too long a leash.
“Roll ‘em out as they come along,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said of potential trade deals. “Don’t try to save ‘em all up for the Fourth of July… Because people are very anxious about it. They want to see the results of the strategy.”
A few weeks ago, four Senate Republicans joined all 47 Democrats in voting to overturn Trump’s initial tariffs on Canada. Tonight, senators will vote on another privileged resolution — this time to block Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
This has been a consistent pressure point for Thune and Majority Whip John Barrasso, who have been working to prevent new cracks in their conference’s support for Trump’s trade agenda.
Even though these votes are largely symbolic given recent House rules changes, losing is a bad look for Trump. It’s also a constant reminder of the party’s disunity over tariffs. And there’s a sense within the GOP leadership that these kinds of headlines will only serve to undermine Trump as he tries to secure various trade deals.
Barrasso led a presentation during the closed-door GOP lunch on Tuesday that was carefully tailored to the four GOP detractors — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Rand Paul (Ky.). Republicans need to flip one of them to defeat the resolution.
Paul projected confidence that all four would hold firm. Murkowski and Collins have been mum, as has McConnell. In fact, McConnell spent the recent recess speaking out against the tariffs and their negative impact on Kentucky.
These four Republicans are mostly unmoved by Trump’s pressure tactics to get them to fall in line. But at his Michigan rally Tuesday night, Trump reminded Republicans of the consequences for those who challenge him.
“Remember who those grandstanders are and vote them the hell out of office,” Trump said of his GOP detractors.
— Brendan Pedersen, Andrew Desiderio and Ben Brody
THE MINORITY
With Connolly’s illness, Dems spar over Oversight post
When Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) announced Monday he was stepping aside from Democrats’ top slot on the House Oversight Committee due to health problems, the veteran lawmaker tapped Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) to temporarily fill in.
But Lynch has plans to hold the job for the long term. And that’s rankling progressives who privately worry the centrist Lynch – with the House Democratic leadership’s blessing – is boxing out any potential challengers.
The Oversight Committee is one of the highest-profile panels in Congress. And it’ll become a critical Democratic bulwark against President Donald Trump if the House flips next year.
“We really need street fighters right now,” said Rep. Lateefah Simon (D-Calif.), who serves on the panel. Simon cited Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), currently Oversight vice ranking member, as top contenders to succeed Connolly.
The Oversight panel is stacked with younger liberals, many of whom openly criticize longstanding caucus norms around seniority. The House Democratic Caucus mood overall has started to shift on this issue, as evidenced by messy committee battles following last year’s disappointing election results for the party.
Making moves: Lynch, who previously ran for the top post on the Oversight panel, is already meeting with committee staff on the panel’s reconciliation strategy. Citing committee seniority, the 70-year-old Massachusetts Democrat – who first came to Congress in 2001 – confirmed that he intends to run for ranking member when the post opens up.
“It’s an investigations committee. It’s not just about ideas,” Lynch said. “As an attorney and someone who’s done probably 30 investigations in 25 years here in Congress, I think I’m well-positioned to do that.”
Some Democratic offices connected to the Oversight panel were also told Lynch would share the ranking member post with other members. Lynch, though, said he doesn’t intend to do that.
The AOC factor: Technically, there’s no vacancy on the panel yet, as Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar pointed out Tuesday. But several members have floated Ocasio-Cortez as a top potential contender.
Ocasio-Cortez lost to Connolly in a head-to-head match in December. She now serves on the House Energy and Commerce Committee. But several senior Democratic lawmakers and aides told us they think AOC could still run for the Oversight post due to precedent set late last year.
“I’m hoping that Alexandria will run,” said Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), who serves on Oversight. “She’s the best person to run the committee.” Ocasio-Cortez’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Candidate list: AOC isn’t the only Democrat who could challenge Lynch for the job. Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), Frost and Crockett have been floated as alternative options to lead the often combative committee.
Crockett has started making calls to members about her bid and spoke to Lynch privately about interim leadership.
“[Lynch] can’t run if there’s no vacancy,” Crockett said. “But if and when a vacancy occurs so long as the president is still Donald Trump and I’m still on Oversight, I have every intention of going forward.”
— Mica Soellner and John Bresnahan
MEDICAID MADNESS
Guthrie to meet with Medicaid-wary Republicans
GOP moderates concerned about Medicaid cuts will meet with House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) this week as the panel struggles to come up with potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in cuts to the popular program.
Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) told us this will be his fourth conversation with Guthrie, who has been talking to concerned members individually for weeks. Van Drew was among a dozen Republicans who warned House GOP leaders that they wouldn’t vote for a final reconciliation package with deep Medicaid cuts.
“We’re going to hold their feet to the fire to make sure there isn’t a lasting change,” Van Drew told us. “Attitude is what matters most here. We’re not just going to roll.”
Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.) and Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) also plan to meet with Guthrie.
The increased pressure from moderates comes as Energy and Commerce inches closer to its May 7 markup. Committee Republicans met Monday to discuss what policies to include. Members made progress on narrowing down options, but their biggest challenge is winning over both moderates and hardliners.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) now says he’ll only support up to $500 billion in Medicaid cuts, as Politico reported. Other centrists have hinted about their own red lines. Energy and Commerce must find $880 billion in spending cuts, most of which will likely have to come from Medicaid.
Guthrie said the panel is still considering whether to lower the federal match rate or implement per capita caps for the Medicaid expansion population.
GOP moderates are more supportive of changes to the expansion population, with Bacon, Van Drew and Malliotakis saying they would consider those proposals. However, this may cause issues in the Senate.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), for example, laid out a much narrower picture of what she would support.
“The one thing that I would support are carefully crafted work requirements for able-bodied adults without pre-school children,” Collins said. “But I want to make sure we’re not depriving seniors, children, low-income families, people with disabilities and our rural hospitals.”
— Mica Soellner, Samantha Handler, Laura Weiss and Andrew Desiderio
The Vault: SALT crunch begins
Key Republicans are meeting this afternoon for the first time in months to work on one of the biggest obstacles for the House’s tax bill: SALT.
Going into the high-stakes huddle, the strongest GOP opponents of the $10,000 cap on deducting state and local taxes have settled on a range for the limit they could get behind. But their numbers aren’t exactly the same.
“We’re on the same page but maybe not on the same line,” said Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), co-chair of the SALT Caucus.
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Speaker Mike Johnson is convening the meeting with SALT Republicans from New York, New Jersey and California. House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) is also attending. Johnson said the huddle is a final step toward landing on a SALT cap number.
“We’re just talking about the various options on the table and getting their final feedback as the decision’s being made,” Johnson said.
The House GOP leadership needs to resolve this impasse quickly if they’re going to pass the massive reconciliation package by Memorial Day. The Republican leadership has been pressuring the House Ways and Means Committee to hold a markup next week in order to stick that timeline.
But SALT is among the most challenging political problems for the tax bill. Opponents of the cap are viewing the meeting as a starting point, not a finish line.
“I know there’s a timeline,” Garbarino said. “But unfortunately we were not the ones that wanted to wait until tomorrow to meet.”
SALT is an existential political issue for a handful of House Republicans. Now is their moment to fight.
Blue-state Republicans want more data from Ways and Means on the impact of SALT proposals than they’ve received. Yet it’s unclear what exact information they’re seeking. The Ways and Means panel has provided SALT members with information on the cap’s district-by-district impact and worked with the Joint Committee on Taxation to get scores for SALT options.
The gov factor: The New York governor’s race is another dynamic worth considering.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is eyeing a gubernatorial run after the Trump administration withdrew her nomination for UN ambassador. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is weighing a bid too.
Stefanik said on X that she’ll be at today’s SALT meeting, although she’s been in leadership and hasn’t been among the most vocal Republicans on the issue.
But Stefanik is the only New York Republican left in the House to have voted against the tax bill in 2017 because of the SALT cap. And she is engaging on the issue this time around. Remember: she called Johnson out Tuesday. The speaker said he’s been speaking to Stefanik and Lawler about the governor race. Stefanik said she’s had no conversations with Johnson.
— Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman
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THE CAMPAIGN
DSCC’s Sununu billboard and a new NRCC poll
News: The DSCC is sending a mobile billboard to circle NRSC headquarters and troll the Senate GOP campaign arm for tying itself to President Donald Trump’s economic agenda.
The billboard will play a clip of former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu admitting that sinking 401Ks could hurt Republicans in the midterms. Sununu passed on running for Senate in an open seat that the NRSC is vowing to compete in.
New NRCC poll. We scooped a new NRCC poll that was presented in the House Republican Conference Tuesday. Here’s a memo laying out the numbers, making the case that “Republicans are in a strong position to defend and grow the House majority heading into 2026.”
Minnesota Senate news: Dave Wellstone, the son of the legendary late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minn.), is endorsing Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-Minn.) Senate run. Wellstone hailed Craig’s ability to reach out to all Minnesotans in politically diverse areas in his endorsement message.
— Max Cohen
PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS
ICYMI: Lee on AI and Medicaid
Did you miss our event with Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.) on Tuesday?
Lee, a member of the House Task Force on Artificial Intelligence, discussed the panel’s priorities for the new technology.
Lee encouraged Congress, educational institutions and the private sector to work towards preparing the future workforce for an AI-powered world. The Florida Republican also discussed the prospect of cuts to Medicaid in reconciliation.
You can watch the full conversation here.
– Elvina Nawaguna
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Presented by RED Coalition
You voted for American energy dominance—and the Trump Administration is delivering. From solar to oil & gas, they’re unleashing it all. More energy. More jobs. Higher wages. America is booming—because when we lead, we win.