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October 23, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Monday morning.
It’s Day 20 without a House speaker.
It’s hard to fully grasp the scale of this disaster for House Republicans and the Congress as a whole. But one thing is clear — the American public is fed up with the standoff.
Even if GOP lawmakers are able to agree among themselves on a speaker soon — far from guaranteed based on what’s happened during the last several weeks — they’ve now spent the better part of a month on this internecine battle. They’ll have gained nothing while their three most high-profile members — former speaker Kevin McCarthy, Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan — have either been ousted or rejected by their colleagues.
And whoever finally gets the speaker’s gavel will preside over a House Republican Conference riven by anger and bitterness. We’re not sure what, if anything, House Republicans can accomplish during the remainder of this Congress.
A reminder — government funding runs out on Nov. 17, while President Joe Biden is seeking $105 billion for wars in Ukraine and Israel, plus aid to Taiwan and new border-security money. The House can’t do anything about any of this until it gets a speaker or a speaker pro tem is elected.
Let’s be clear: We’re doubtful that any of the nine Republicans running can garner 217 votes on the floor.
But we are sure of this — the House will have to act this week. Enough Republicans plus 212 Democrats are out of patience. They want the House back in business ASAP, however it’s done.
Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) told us on Friday that he’s prepared to offer his resolution to elect Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry to the post if Republicans can’t unite behind a speaker. Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio) has a similar proposal. That would allow the House to take action on Israel and the other critical issues it faces.
But Kelly and Joyce would need Democratic votes to pass this. So far, Democrats have waited out the internal GOP crisis, saying they’re prepared to act in a bipartisan manner when Republicans are ready. That decision point is rapidly approaching.
The other possibility is reinstalling McCarthy as speaker. We don’t see this as terribly likely. McCarthy’s opposition has probably swelled beyond the original eight conservative hardliners who voted to oust him, despite some very vocal GOP support. And he would want the motion to vacate changed, which would require Democratic help.
The reality is that GOP leaders are going to need Democratic support to avoid a shutdown, pass a new farm bill, reauthorize the FAA or do anything at this point.
So basically, House Republicans are at their last gasp this week. Either they unite behind a speaker or a number of their members will go to the floor and seek Democratic backing to break the stalemate.
State of the race. The top contender — the latest of the trio of elected GOP leaders to mount a bid for speaker — is House Majority Whip Tom Emmer.
We’ll say the same thing about Emmer that we said about House Majority Leader Steve Scalise — he has a very solid whip operation, which gives the Minnesota Republican massive institutional advantages over his rivals. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), a newbie to leadership with a good read on the conference, is running Emmer’s race for speaker.
But the fact that nine lawmakers are running signals that Republicans aren’t content with Emmer, and they’re certainly not afraid of him.
For the moment, Emmer is the frontrunner. He’s nearly certain to advance to the second round of voting inside the GOP Conference. His team believes he’ll eventually advance from the conference as the party’s nominee, probably winning in the third or fourth round of voting.
But as we saw with Scalise, strong whip operations don’t mean everything. Former President Donald Trump’s orbit is vehemently opposed to Emmer’s candidacy. Emmer’s team is hoping Trump himself stays neutral publicly, but that seems unlikely. Trump-linked sources are already circulating oppo research on Emmer’s DUI and voting history — including his vote to have the federal government recognize same-sex marriage. Emmer’s team says he’s been loyal to Trump. The Minnesotan backed Trump in 2016 and 2020, while Trump keynoted numerous events for Emmer as NRCC chair.
McCarthy, who previously endorsed Jordan for speaker, has now endorsed Emmer. But remember that these races are intensely personal affairs. Emmer won a very competitive race for whip in January, making enemies with allies to Reps. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) in the process.
The lawmakers making calls for Emmer include Reschenthaler, Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter, Kansas Rep. Jake LaTurner and Minnesota Rep. Brad Finstad.
More on the other candidates in a moment.
The rules: Republicans will hold a candidate forum today at 6:30 p.m. Then they will begin voting tomorrow.
The election process is relatively straightforward. The lowest vote-getter is booted each round until there’s only one candidate left.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
Tomorrow: Join us for a conversation on the role of private equity in supporting small businesses, jobs and the economy. We’ll discuss this and the news of the day with Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) at 9 a.m. ET. To join us, RSVP here.
THE ELECTION
Digging into each candidate for speaker
This is a very unusual contest for speaker.
We have nine candidates — some of them backbenchers — vying for the chamber’s top job in what can only be described as a do-or-die week in the House Republican Conference.
Here’s our assessment of each candidate besides House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, who we covered in The Top.
House Republican Conference Vice Chair Mike Johnson: Johnson, the GOP conference vice chair and a senior member of the Judiciary Committee, has been in the leadership since 2021. The Louisiana Republican is a conservative who has an easy yet serious demeanor. We can see some on the right gravitating toward him. But does the GOP conference want a) to elevate someone already in the leadership and b) have two Louisianans at the leadership table?
The interesting dynamic is that Johnson and Reps. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) and Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) pull from the same base — socially conservative Southerners.
Florida Rep. Byron Donalds: Donalds is perhaps the most intriguing candidate of this field. The second-term lawmaker from southwestern Florida has friends across the conference. Donalds is a constant and charismatic presence on television; as we’ve mentioned, House Republicans care about that. And he’s been willing to work with GOP leadership to effect change.
Donalds’ weakness is do his colleagues see the 44-year-old, who has only been in politics for seven years, as ready to run the House? Donalds’ supporters say he has the verve, respect and support to be the speaker.
RSC Chair Kevin Hern: In the past, the chairman of the Republican Study Committee would have an easy path to advancing in a nine-way race. But the RSC has grown so large that it inevitably splinters between candidates. That said, Hern will pull from conservatives who want a forceful conservative as speaker.
Hern’s ideas are in the mainstream of contemporary conservative thought. The Oklahoma Republican’s calling card is that he was a successful businessman and that’s a useful skill for Congress. We assume he’ll advance past the first round of voting on Wednesday.
Michigan Rep. Jack Bergman: If you’re looking for someone who wants to run the House as a temporary assignment, Bergman is your pick. He’s a retired Marine general who’s been in Congress since 2017. We understand Bergman’s case for the gavel — let’s get a Republican in there who has nothing to lose and will do no harm — but that’s not exactly where the House GOP is at the moment. That said, he’s doing well with the Michigan delegation.
Georgia Rep. Austin Scott: Scott received a shocking 81 votes when he ran for speaker against Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) 10 days ago. That vote was mostly an anti-Jordan one, so temper your expectations as to what Scott will do now. But there’s a natural base of support for his candidacy. Scott is a defense hawk and the closest thing to a Bush-era Republican. Look toward appropriators and some members of the House Armed Services Committee for Scott supporters.
Texas Rep. Pete Sessions: We’ve been around for long enough to have covered several Sessions leadership races. Sessions was NRCC chair during the GOP’s historic win in the 2010 elections, yet he never moved up to a top leadership slot. The former chair of the Rules Committee lost his Dallas area seat to Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) in 2018, only to return in 2020 representing Waco. The one chance Sessions has here is if the Texas delegation somehow moves en masse to his side. We see this as pretty unlikely.
Alabama Rep. Gary Palmer: The Alabama Republican surprised many with his late entry into the race. Palmer is in his third term as chair of the Republican Policy Committee. He was a longtime player in Alabama conservative circles before winning a House seat in 2014.
Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser: We wouldn’t be shocked if Meuser is the first one out in the internal party election Tuesday. The former business exec and state official has been in the House since 2019.
Now that we’ve talked about the politics of the speaker race, let’s discuss some policies for a moment.
We’ve decided to highlight how the candidates for speaker voted on five key issues: Certifying the 2020 election; the 2022 same-sex marriage vote; September’s $300 million Ukraine supplemental; McCarthy’s Fiscal Responsibility Act; and the stopgap funding bill that eventually ended McCarthy’s speakership.
— Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY JPMORGAN CHASE
PRESENTED BY JPMORGAN CHASE
PUNCHBOWL NEWS x MERIDIAN
Meridian International announces new Center for Corporate Diplomacy
Punchbowl News partnered with the Meridian International Center for their annual summit on Friday in Washington. The half-day convening brought together leaders across the private and public sectors for conversations focused on diplomacy, business and policy.
The summit began with the announcement of the launch of the Center for Corporate Diplomacy by Meridian CEO Stuart Holliday, and chair of the board of trustees of Meridian, Fred P. Hochberg. The Center will focus on providing executive education and building exchange programs for business leaders. As part of the event, Punchbowl News CEO Anna Palmer interviewed Shamina Singh, founder and president of the Center for Inclusive Growth at Mastercard, about corporate diplomacy and the company’s work in developing nations.
Afterward, D.C. insiders celebrated together at the annual Meridian Ball.
Big thanks to Puru Trivedi, Katherine Boyce and Danielle Najjar of Meridian for the partnership.
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Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.