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THE TOP
How Scalise plans to navigate Trump’s Washington
Happy Wednesday morning. There are 13 days until Election Day.
TUCSON, Ariz. — The near-universal view of Republican leaders is that they wasted a lot of time when Donald Trump became president nearly eight years ago.
They’re hell-bent on not doing that again.
“If we win the whole thing … we don’t want to be at odds like we were back at [2017] and burn the first four months, which we did. We didn’t deliver anything, surely, in the first 100 days,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, the chamber’s No. 2 Republican, in an interview here.
Scalise, unlike Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, was in the GOP leadership during Trump’s presidency. He had a front-row seat to the — how do we say this delicately — quirks of Trump-dominated Washington.
We spent two days with Scalise this week as he campaigned in south Texas and Arizona. We have lots of news from Scalise, which we’ll report throughout today.
As majority leader, Scalise is charged with executing the party’s agenda. He’s in charge of the committees. He runs the House floor.
And to put it bluntly, Scalise has the most experienced staff in the House Republican leadership, which will make him a critical cog in the GOP machinery on Capitol Hill if the party controls Washington come January.
But let’s say this very clearly upfront — there’s no guarantee that Trump will win the presidency or that Republicans will keep the House. Even Scalise said he was surprised by “how many [House] races are close” across the country.
“It’s 45 races that we’re tracking and involved in,” Scalise said as he left a tour of the border wall in Mission, Texas. “Almost every one of them [is] within the margin of error.”
But it’s clear that Scalise is already thinking in a very granular way about his party’s agenda should the GOP run the table on Election Day.
In the next Congress: Much of Scalise’s headspace seems to be dedicated to the looming tax fight — a legislative skirmish that will dominate Washington for the next several months.
Trump has made lots of promises on taxes. The former president wants to slash the corporate rate from 21% to 15% while also cutting taxes on Social Security, tips, overtime, car-loan interest and American citizens living abroad. He’s even toyed with the idea of slashing taxes for police officers and military veterans. Trump has also promised to fix the deduction cap for state-and-local taxes.
It’s up to Scalise and GOP congressional leaders to make at least some of these promises a reality — if they win.
Scalise told us that he intends to use a host of energy policies to help offset the cost of the tax cuts in a filibuster-proof reconciliation bill.
The Louisiana Republican said he’d seek to open the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve for oil drilling, in addition to expanding liquified natural gas exports, expediting leases and permits and reducing other rules and regulations that would, in his view, help generate new revenue for the federal government.
Scalise also said he’d seek to shrink federal agencies’ budgets to pre-Covid levels, which would recoup “tens of billions” of dollars that could then be reallocated to cutting taxes.
In addition, Scalise said the GOP would look to repeal the federal tax credit for electric vehicles.
Let’s be clear about something: Trump says a lot of things. He’s notorious for having a fleeting focus. And Republicans haven’t been the picture of legislative efficiency during the last few years.
The Trump factor: There’s something to remember about Trump. He’s a complete wild card — and that extends to his legislative outlook. Capitol Hill baffled him during his presidency and he still doesn’t totally get the place. For example, Trump pushed for a government shutdown in September, even as Johnson begged him not to. Trump eventually relented.
The bully case — as articulated by Scalise and others — is that Trump is more familiar with the levers of power afforded to a president. Scalise understands what former leaders sometimes didn’t — that in Trump’s Washington, one man has the final word: Trump.
“If you’ve got a point you want to make, bring the data to [Trump] and lay it out. He’ll let you make your case at the end of it. He’s the guy that makes the decision. You just got to be with him,” Scalise said.
If Republicans lose the majority? That’s something that no House GOP leader wants to entertain. We’ve traveled with Johnson, Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) this month and all of them seem to believe — or say they do — that House Republicans will keep or even expand their majority.
But if Republicans lose the House, Jordan would almost certainly challenge Scalise for minority leader if Johnson stepped away.
Scalise said he isn’t worried about Jordan or any ambition the Ohio Republican may harbor:
“I’ve run tough leadership races before. We don’t take any of them for granted. … I’ve proven how tough I am. And not just tough and resilient in my personal life, but also in leadership elections and the ability to deliver.”
— Jake Sherman
Welcome to the team! We’re thrilled to announce Samantha Handler is joining our editorial team. Samantha joins us from Bloomberg, where she covered the ins and outs of tax policy on Capitol Hill. Samantha will be bringing her legislative and Hill expertise to anchor a new policy-focused newsletter. Reach out and say hello: samantha@punchbowl.news.
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Introducing Instagram Teen Accounts: a new experience for teens, guided by parents.
Instagram is launching Teen Accounts, with built-in protections limiting who can contact teens and the content they can see. Plus, only parents can approve safety setting changes for teens under 16.
So parents can have more peace of mind when it comes to protecting their teens.
Michigan Dems brush off reports of Black voters shifting right
DETROIT — Black voters, long one of the most reliable pro-Democratic blocs, are shifting away from the party this cycle, according to polling. But Democrats on the ground in Michigan aren’t buying it, arguing there will be no boost for former President Donald Trump and GOP candidates in 2024.
Both sides agree that Michigan will be close in November. Democrats can’t afford to lose out on too many voters who backed the party four years ago when President Joe Biden carried the Wolverine State by just three points. Democrats are already concerned that Arab American voters in Michigan are souring on the party thanks to U.S. support for Israel during the deadly war in Gaza.
Republican and Democratic campaigns are both making plays at Black voters by holding events in Detroit, the state’s largest city and hub of its Black community. But the parties are taking different paths to wooing those voters.
Trump handed out signs pledging to “Make Detroit Great Again” at his Detroit rally on Friday, days after he publicly disparaged the city and compared it to a “developing nation.”
While rallying for Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) at Detroit’s Cass Technical High School earlier Friday, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) criticized Trump’s Detroit diss and told voters Trump had a history of racism.
Warnock also acknowledged the “chatter” that Black voters were moving right.
“We’re not a monolith,” Warnock added, before predicting that “You will not see waves of Black men voting for Donald Trump.”
The Democratic pitch: Speaking to us after the Warnock rally, Slotkin said her pitch to Black voters centers around “trust.”
“Who do you trust to actually listen to you, learn from you and then take the fight to Washington?” Slotkin said. “I’m someone who has done this for five years, who has, in particular, a strong African American community in Lansing and East Lansing.”
In 2020, Biden won 94% of Detroit’s vote. Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.), who represents Detroit in the House, echoed Warnock’s optimism that Democrats will continue to do well.
“Largely the African American community is with Kamala Harris,” Thanedar said, describing reports of Black voters going to the GOP as “just isolated incidents.”
GOP optimism: But at an event for GOP candidate Tom Barrett in Lansing, Speaker Mike Johnson made a bold statement that cut against Democratic beliefs.
“I’m convinced you’re going to have a record number of Black and African American voters,” Johnson said. “These demographics of people have not, historically in large numbers, been in our camp. They are going to be this time because everybody is feeling the cost of living, rising crime rates and the wide open border.”
— Max Cohen
Weekday mornings, The Daily Punch brings you inside Capitol Hill, the White House, and Washington.
Listen NowCONSERVATIVE CORNER
The unusual alliance between HFC and NRCC
The once-strained relationship between the House Freedom Caucus and the House GOP’s campaign arm has turned an unexpected corner this cycle. The two sides, which have long been adversarial, have formed an unusual alliance to help conservative candidates across the country.
Senior sources within the NRCC and HFC confirmed their working relationship to boost candidates including Joe Kent in Washington, Nick Begich in Alaska and Neil Parrott in Maryland – all key offensive opportunities for House Republicans. The NRCC and HFC have also been in close coordination to help Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), a former Freedom Caucus chair hoping to fend off Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.
HFC members transferred more than $1 million to the NRCC this past month alone, which includes a $500,000 check from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), according to multiple sources. The contributions were described as “unprecedented” by both camps since the ultraconservative group has typically stiffed the GOP on campaign cash.
Meanwhile, the NRCC is allowing lawmakers to receive credit for their membership dues if they donate to Perry’s campaign through them, several sources told us.
A sea change: The Freedom Caucus sees the NRCC as a tool of the Republican establishment that favors moderates over conservatives, while GOP leaders counter that HFC members oppose everything they do but still want campaign donations and organizational help.
Yet the NRCC, and by extension Speaker Mike Johnson, need these conservative members to prevail to retain and expand their majority. Johnson is also trying to earn chits with hardliners to keep his speaker’s gavel if House Republicans are still in the majority come January.
And the Freedom Caucus recognizes the value of receiving reinforcements from the NRCC, as well as the top super PAC aligned with Johnson — another organization conservatives once railed against. The NRCC has spent over $8 million on ads for Begich and Kent alone. The Congressional Leadership Fund poured $2 million-plus into Perry’s race.
Johnson will campaign for Kent on Thursday for the second time since August. The speaker also stumped for Perry earlier this month — an offer he made after polls showed the Pennsylvania Republican down.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is also expected to campaign for Parrott in Maryland later this month.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said there’s been a change in the overall HFC-leadership relationship since Johnson, who is more ideologically aligned with the conservative wing of the party, became speaker.
“[Kevin] McCarthy looked at us as adversaries, but with how close our numbers are, they need everybody and we’re working well together,” Norman said.
Conservatives’ concerns: Still, some HFC members have privately grumbled about leadership coming in too late to help their candidates. Plus, the NRCC has struggled to close the fundraising gap with Democrats, meaning there are fewer resources to go around.
“It is frustrating that they seem to give little priority to members of the Freedom Caucus because, at the end of the day, we’re gonna make the majority,” Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) told us.
There’s also still plenty of angst, particularly around Perry’s race. The HFC is desperate to prevent another high-profile loss, after their former chair, Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), lost his primary race. Expect a lot of finger-pointing if Perry goes down too.
— Mica Soellner and Melanie Zanona
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THE MONEY GAME
Two scoops: Leadership to MSG with Trump and Stefanik’s money dump
News: Speaker Mike Johnson will join former President Donald Trump at his rally in New York City on Sunday, according to GOP sources, in what will be their last appearance together on the campaign trail before the election.
The sold-out event at Madison Square Garden, which will also serve as a massive fundraiser for Trump, has become a hot ticket for members and donors. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and other GOP lawmakers are also expected to attend.
First in Punchbowl News: Stefanik is transferring another $1.5 million to the NRCC and her New York Battleground Fund in the final sprint before the election. The Empire State is expected to play a major role in determining the balance of power in the House.
Stefanik has now contributed a total of $15 million to candidates, the NRCC and her battleground effort, which is a joint fundraising agreement between Stefanik and the New York GOP designed to boost incumbents and candidates in the state. Stefanik, a top Trump ally, has raised over $37 million this cycle.
“New York is one of our most important states to grow the majority, and Elise has been an outstanding partner for the NRCC in helping win these critical races,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said in a statement.
Other NRCC news: The group’s independent expenditure arm is airing a new attack ad against Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) all about sex change surgeries, transgender sports and drag queens. We covered this growing trend on Tuesday.
— Melanie Zanona
The Vault: Dems urge Direct File expansion for citizens abroad
First in Punchbowl News: Dozens of Democrats in both chambers are urging the IRS to expand its Direct File program to cover U.S. citizens living abroad.
Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) are leading a letter to IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel asking the agency to include this group as it adds new functions and states to the free online tax filing platform for next year.
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The letter says that the roughly 9 million U.S. citizens who live outside the country can’t use many of the IRS’ tax season resources and end up having to pay for tax preparation services. It adds that many citizens living abroad don’t need to file state taxes, which would make the federal Direct File system simpler to apply.
Here’s more from the Democrats’ plea to Werfel:
“Expanding Direct File to allow access for taxpayers abroad would demonstrate the IRS’ commitment to providing free, fast tax preparation options to as many taxpayers as possible, using technology to scale customer service, and assisting historically underserved populations like Americans abroad.”
Taxes for Americans abroad are getting the attention of late. In another one of his many, many campaign tax promises, former President Donald Trump pledged to cut taxes for U.S. citizens living overseas. There’s been a recent wave of new lobbying registrations for work on that issue this year, as we reported.
Meanwhile, the IRS is working to expand Direct File for the 2025 tax season to 24 states, doubling the number of states eligible this year.
— Laura Weiss
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MOMENTS
ALL TIMES EASTERN
12:30 p.m.
President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
1:25 p.m.
Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Philadelphia, arriving at 2:10 p.m.
1:30 p.m.
Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will brief.
9 p.m.
Harris will participate in a CNN Town Hall in Chester Township, Pa.
CLIPS
NBC
“’Turning the page’: Harris says America is ready for a female president of color”
– Alex Seitz-Wald
NYT
“As Election Nears, Kelly Warns Trump Would Rule Like a Dictator”
– Michael S. Schmidt
NYT
“Bill Gates Privately Says He Has Backed Harris With $50 Million Donation”
– Theodore Schleifer
WaPo
“Northern Gaza conditions ‘beyond catastrophic,’ U.N. official says”
– Washington Post Staff
AP
“Israel says it killed a Hezbollah official expected to become the group’s next leader”
– Farnoush Amiri and Sarah El Deeb in Beirut
Politico
“Dems see warning signs for Harris with youth vote in Arizona”
– Megan Messerly in Phoenix
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Introducing Instagram Teen Accounts with automatic protections for teens.
Instagram is launching Teen Accounts, with built-in protections limiting who can contact teens and the content they can see. Plus, only parents can approve safety setting changes for teens under 16.
This means parents can have more peace of mind when it comes to protecting their teens.
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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