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IN THIS EDITION

Johnson and Jeffries hop between key battlegrounds in last week of the election

Casey’s unfamiliar journey: A close Senate race

The Vault: It’s Crapo’s moment. Can he seize it?

​​Commerce Committee says ‘positive’ talks around Tech’s AI priority

THE TOP

Johnson and Jeffries hop between key battlegrounds in last week of the election

Happy Tuesday morning.

We’re now one week from Election Day. Here’s a good primer on where the presidential race stands. It’s as close as you think. The Senate landscape got rocked on Monday when a poll showed independent Dan Osborn within striking distance of knocking off Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.). Senior Republicans are rushing to Nebraska to try to boost Fischer. Races in Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all coming down to the wire.

But this morning, we’re going to focus on the fight for control of the House. Key players in both parties say the election is on a knife’s edge, with dozens of races currently polling within the margin of error. Whichever party takes control of the chamber will likely only enjoy a narrow majority. That makes every single seat critical.

The leaders. Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have been circling the country for the last six weeks, raising hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign donations while trying to sell the country on their respective agendas.

For Johnson and Jeffries, the stakes personally couldn’t be higher. The 52-year-old Johnson ascended to the speaker’s chair following the stunning ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in October 2023. He’s aligned himself and House Republicans even more closely with former President Donald Trump — if that’s possible — in a bid to save the often chaotic GOP majority, as well as hold onto his own job.

Jeffries, 54, is seeking to become the first Black speaker in U.S. history. Jeffries helped save Johnson’s job from a Republican uprising when he didn’t do that with McCarthy. Now it’ll be seen how those momentous decisions play out.

How and where Johnson and Jeffries are spending these last weeks is telling. The two will even descend on the same district on the exact same day.

Sources tell us Johnson and Jeffries will both make campaign stops Friday in New York’s 19th District, where GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro is locked in a razor-tight race largely seen by both parties as a bellwether contest. Molinaro’s race against Democrat Josh Riley is rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

The seat could not only determine the House majority but also who wields the speaker’s gavel. So it’s no surprise that Johnson and Jeffries will spend their time there during the election’s critical final stretch.

Johnson has been to more than 235 cities in 40 states since becoming speaker. He’ll be in New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, Louisiana, North Carolina and Virginia over the next week.

The state that sticks out to us on that list is Connecticut, where Republicans haven’t won a federal election since 2006. But Johnson will be in the great Nutmeg State to fundraise for GOP challenger George Logan, who is running against Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.). This fundraiser has been on the books for some time. Most Republicans think this race in the 5th District is out of reach for the GOP.

Of course, New Jersey has one marquee race — GOP Rep. Tom Kean against Democrat Sue Altman. Pennsylvania has a host of competitive races, including Democratic Rep. Susan Wild against Ryan MacKenzie, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright against Rob Bresnahan and GOP Rep. Scott Perry versus Janelle Stelson.

New York features a ton of competitive races: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) versus former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) versus John Avlon, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) versus Laura Gillen, Molinaro versus Riley and Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) versus John Mannion.

North Carolina has Democratic Rep. Don Davis against Laurie Buckhout. And Virginia has Republican Derrick Anderson facing off against Democrat Eugene Vindman.

Jeffries will be in New York, as well. But he’s also heading to Michigan, the home of three competitive races: Republican Tom Barrett versus Democrat Curtis Hertel, Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet versus Republican Paul Junge and GOP Rep. John James versus Carl Marlinga.

Jeffries will travel to Alabama, too. Democrat Shomari Figures, a former Obama White House aide and Justice Department official, is favored to pick up a seat where minority voters make up nearly half the electorate.

Jeffries will have visited more than 30 states throughout the cycle and traveled 25,000 miles — or a trip around the Earth — from the middle of September through Nov. 5.

House leadership election. House Republicans announced they will hold their leadership elections on Nov. 13, as we reported nearly two weeks ago. The deadline for getting into a leadership race is Nov. 12 at noon. On Nov. 14 and Nov. 15, House Republicans will consider their conference rules.

– Jake Sherman and Melanie Zanona

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ON THE ROAD

Casey’s unfamiliar journey: A close Senate race

PHILADELPHIA — Democratic Sen. Bob Casey (Pa.) isn’t a firebreather. The no-frills, mild-mannered Pennsylvanian just doesn’t operate that way.

That’s why Casey’s speech to a crowd of carpenters at a union hall here was so jolting.

“I’m a little bit sick of talking about this guy,” Casey quipped about his GOP opponent Dave McCormick, before haranguing McCormick over his business record, residency and opposition to the infrastructure law.

“He’s a creep!” someone in the crowd yelled. Casey responded: “He might be worse than that.”

That Casey was campaigning out of character during the final sprint was undoubtedly a reflection of the long, exhausting slog this cycle has been. Yet Casey’s unfamiliar posture underscores the uniquely unfamiliar position he finds himself in.

After toppling a GOP incumbent in 2006, Casey won his next two reelection bids — in 2012 and 2018 — by comfortable nine- and 13-point margins respectively. But this year, with Pennsylvania as ground zero in the fight for the White House, was always going to be different. McCormick is now within striking distance of what would be a huge pickup for Republicans.

Casey’s strategy: Democrats struggled in 2022 to capitalize on the bipartisan legislative achievements of the previous two years, in part because they hadn’t been implemented and were therefore abstract concepts to voters.

Now that they’re being implemented — especially infrastructure projects — Democrats are looking to use this to their advantage in battlegrounds. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has touted this.

“Sometimes when there isn’t something that’s manifest and right in front of people, it’s harder to conceptualize,” Casey told us after his speech. “But my sense is people are seeing more activity, they’re seeing the investment.”

Casey is also using some of this year’s failed messaging votes — another Schumer-driven strategy — to criticize McCormick. Casey‘s doing this with the bipartisan border security deal in arguing McCormick will do whatever former President Donald Trump tells him to do — in this case, opposing the bill.

It’s also an effort to counteract McCormick’s stated goal of attracting voters outside the Trump base, which is of course necessary to win a battleground state. Casey called McCormick’s border-related attacks “bullshit.”

The presidential race: Like other Senate GOP challengers, McCormick has hitched himself to Trump. Yet McCormick also knows he needs to grow his vote share in the suburbs, which may require breaking from Trump at times, although he has yet to do so in a major way.

Casey, however, is running an ad statewide highlighting his opposition to President Joe Biden’s decision to pause liquified natural gas exports. But he’s still tying himself closely to Vice President Kamala Harris.

McCormick says he’s thrilled Harris replaced Biden, calling Pennsylvania “the one place” where Democrats would’ve preferred Biden.

“Say what you want, but Biden had campaigned in Pennsylvania for 50 years, calling himself Pennsylvania’s third senator, Scranton Joe, knew every union leader, county commissioner,” McCormick told us. “Kamala Harris comes on the stage, gets this bump of media euphoria. Then people start to look at her and what she’s said in her own words.”

Casey’s explanation for the race’s tightening? Money.

“It’s not anything [McCormick] did. It’s what his billionaire backers did,” Casey said “When that happens, when they rain down that much in negative ads, it’s going to make the race closer… But they’re not going to knock me down.”

— Andrew Desiderio

The Vault: It’s Crapo’s moment. Can he seize it?

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) is poised to step into the biggest moment of his more than three-decade career in Congress. Washington is about to find out if he can handle that spotlight.

The Senate is likely to flip to a GOP majority next year, elevating Crapo to Finance Committee chair with a massive, high-profile mandate: extending the Trump tax cuts.

Low-key and mild-mannered, Crapo is a close ally of the Senate Republicans’ long-time leader, Mitch McConnell. He also has strong relationships with Senate Minority Whip John Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), both Finance members and leading contenders to succeed McConnell. And Crapo notably kept Republicans in line earlier this year to kill the Wyden-Smith tax deal.

Looking to 2025: Crapo generally wants to extend the Trump tax cuts and keep the corporate rate low. But the Idaho Republican’s views on the whole package are murkier. This could frustrate some tax watchers but also come in handy; it’s sometimes easier to negotiate when you aren’t on the record with your every thought.

Crapo is the type of Finance Committee leader who tries to elevate his members’ opinions. And while a staunch conservative, Crapp also still looks for ways to work with Democrats. But Crapo and fellow Republicans will follow former President Donald Trump’s lead on taxes if he’s back in the Oval Office.

Crapo’s biggest deal was cut when he was chair of the Senate Banking Committee. Crapo worked with a handful of Democrats to ease some banking regulations during the Trump administration. Of course, the task in 2025 will be much more daunting.

Who’s got Crapo’s ear? Crapo’s orbit is small. He’s got a handful of close confidants and some very long-serving staffers who hold sway.

Gregg Richard, staff director at Finance, and Susan Wheeler, chief of staff, have each been working for Crapo for decades. Wheeler even worked on Crapo’s first congressional campaign.

Downtown, Will Hollier, Crapo’s former chief, and John Anderson, a former senior policy adviser, are key. Hollier recently brought former Finance tax staffer Mike Quickel on at his firm, Hollier & Associates. Anderson is at Rich Feuer Anderson.

In the Senate, Crapo’s home-state bond with fellow Idaho GOP Sen. Jim Risch is notable. The two generally align for votes and coordinate closely.

Crapo and the House: Bonds between House and Senate counterparts often get forged in big legislative moments. One of Crapo’s biggest moves at Finance has been scuttling the deal that the House passed overwhelmingly. That package was negotiated by Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.).

It was a rocky start to the Smith-Crapo relationship, to say the least.

Crapo and Smith will be in an easier spot if they’re both chairs working toward Trump’s goals. Still, there’s relationship building for Crapo to do whether it’s Smith or Rep. Richie Neal (Mass.), Ways and Means’ top Democrat, leading the House panel.

— Laura Weiss

TECH REPORT

​​Commerce Committee says ‘positive’ talks around Tech’s AI priority

Senate Commerce Committee leaders are having “positive” talks with their House counterparts about formalizing a key Commerce Department AI initiative by the end of the year.

Included in these discussions is the Future of Artificial Intelligence Act from Sens. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), who chairs the committee, and Todd Young (R-Ind.). The measure would formalize the AI Safety Institute at Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology, which has already been operating as a Biden administration effort.

“There is real enthusiasm for working out an AI package to be included in any end-of-year bill,” Tricia Enright, communications director for the majority, said in an email.

The potential to make AISI permanent in the lame-duck session is a top lame-duck priority for the industry.

“Chair Cantwell’s team has been having positive conversations with House Science Committee staff about the bills passed by both committees,” Enright added.

Tech views AISI as developing formal approaches to AI safety and security that will make for smarter regulation down the road. There’s also concern that former President Donald Trump would undo President Joe Biden’s approach to AI, including AISI, if he’s elected.

Of course, nothing is ever guaranteed to move in the precious few legislative days of late November and December. Still, an AI package means AISI isn’t the only topic under discussion.

In addition to AISI, the Commerce panel has advanced several AI bills, including legislation that would direct the National Science Foundation to award more grants and scholarships to study AI and quantum computing.

In the House, the Republican-controlled Science Committee has pushed for guidance for small businesses on using algorithms, AI education in schools and research funding.

— Ben Brody

THE CAMPAIGN

Money game news: Troy Downing, the Republican running to succeed retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), has chipped in $232,100 to other GOP candidates, the NRCC and Republican efforts in Montana. It’s a sign that Downing is seeking to be a team player before heading to Congress.

Ad watch: Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) will have a new ad out today highlighting his military experience. The ad features several veterans who served with Perry and attacks his Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson for having “no idea what it’s like to be a service member.”

The ad includes an appearance by Jessica Wright, who served as the undersecretary of Defense in the Obama administration.

Veterans issues have become a flashpoint in the PA-10 race. Stelson has attacked Perry on his record on veterans in several of her own ads and has campaigned with veterans opposed to Perry.

Perry, a retired U.S. Army National Guard brigadier general, has a military career that spans nearly 40 years. He deployed to Iraq from 2009-2010.

— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

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