October 8, 2025
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Will Congress or the W.H. do anything to pay the troops?
Happy Wednesday morning.
Fly Out Day this week: Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) will be our guest on Fly Out Day this week. We have a tremendous amount to talk to him about — the shutdown, the NDAA and his political ambitions.
The guests for our reporter conversation are two of the best: Igor Bobic of HuffPost and our legendary co-founder, John Bresnahan.
This is Day 8 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution to the crisis in sight.
We want to focus this morning on military pay. Whether and how to pay soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines has become a huge flashpoint as this funding showdown grinds on.
One week from today, Oct. 15, some 1.3 million active duty service members will miss their next scheduled paycheck if nothing is done first. Tens of thousands of deployed or full-time National Guard members and thousands of Coast Guard personnel face the same threat.
There needs to be some resolution to the funding impasse by Monday, Oct. 13, for military personnel to get paid. That’s not looking promising.
Where things stand: President Donald Trump has already threatened to lay off many of the 750,000 civilian federal employees who are currently furloughed. Top Trump administration officials have even questioned whether these federal workers deserve back pay once the shutdown is over, a major break from previous funding lapses.
Remember: During the 2018-2019 shutdown, the Pentagon was funded, one of the reasons the stalemate lasted as long as it did.
Trump has promised that troops won’t miss a paycheck. Most lawmakers in both parties want to avoid that outcome, too.
The only problem? No one in power has done anything yet to ensure it won’t happen. The House hasn’t even voted since Sept. 19, as GOP leaders believe it’s a better strategy to keep their members home than in Washington.
The logjam. Inside the White House, senior aides are looking at ways to make Trump’s statement a reality. One option would be to repurpose the $150 billion in Pentagon funding approved by Congress as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
But Sen. Jack Reed (R.I.), the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, told us he wants to see Congress pass a standalone bill instead. Using reconciliation money to cover military personnel salaries, Reed said, wasn’t “ever intended or envisioned” when lawmakers approved the package.
“I hope that Congress would pass the standalone bill because the difficulty with reconciliation is it’s turning into a slush fund where anything they need, they pull out,” Reed said. “I’d rather have Congress direct that.”
News here: Ten House Democrats, led by Reps. Gabe Vasquez (N.M.) and Derek Tran (Calif.), are sending a letter today to Speaker Mike Johnson calling on him to bring the House back before Oct. 15 to pass a bill to pay the troops.
Other Democrats signing onto the letter include Reps. Wesley Bell (Mo.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Steven Horsford (Nev.), Susie Lee (Nev.), Ted Lieu (Calif.), Pat Ryan (N.Y.), Andrea Salinas (Ore.) and Tom Suozzi (N.Y.). We expect more House Democrats to sign onto this letter.
Where are the Senate UCs? By this point in the shutdown, you may have expected to see senators marching to the floor to ask for unanimous consent to mitigate certain impacts of the funding lapse. That could be anything from paying troops or air traffic controllers or funding a vital federal program like WIC. Typically, these requests are used as a cudgel to make the other party look bad for objecting.
But none of that has happened during this shutdown. That’s because both sides are so entrenched in their positions and would view standalone “fund this, fund that” efforts as wrecking their leverage.
Republicans don’t want to give Democrats cover to continue holding up passage of their clean funding bill. And Democrats don’t want to make it seem like they’re cracking under the pressure of a shutdown.
So both parties are largely staying on message. After Johnson said he’d be “open” to a standalone bill to pay the troops, Thune immediately dismissed that idea, noting that the House-passed CR would accomplish the same goal. Leading Senate GOP defense hawks have echoed Thune’s sentiment.
“I think the Democrats need to vote to open the government so we can pay our military,” Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.).
Speaking of staying on message, here’s what Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said when we asked about the possibility of using reconciliation funds to pay service members during the shutdown: “They’re clearly trying to figure out a way not to talk about health care.”
Other Democrats, however, signaled they may be open to the Pentagon tapping into reconciliation funding to cover service members’ salaries during the shutdown.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told us he’d want the Defense Department to “come make that case” to lawmakers before acting. But Kaine added he doesn’t “immediately have a red flag that goes up against it.” And Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) said she is “open to a bunch of creative options” to pay troops.
— Briana Reilly, Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
Happening tomorrow at 9 a.m. ET: Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) will join us for a discussion about the news of the day, 5G and spectrum policy. There’s still time to RSVP!
THE SPEAKER
When will Johnson swear Grijalva in?
OK, we’ll bite. Why isn’t Speaker Mike Johnson swearing in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.)?
Grijalva was elected two weeks ago to succeed her father, the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), in a deep blue district. No one is questioning her victory as the younger Grijalva won nearly 69% of the vote.
Johnson could swear Grijalva in during a pro forma session. But he refuses to do so.
Why?
We’re going to present to you two sides to this argument — one voiced by Democrats and the other by the House Republican leadership and the White House.
Democrats. Pretty much to a person, Democrats see Johnson’s unwillingness to swear Grijalva in as a ploy to stall the discharge petition that would force a vote on the bill to release the Jeffrey Epstein files.
The petition has been stuck on 217 signatures since Sept. 10. Grijalva has said she’d be the 218th supporter, triggering an automatic floor vote.
Democrats also note that Johnson swore in Florida GOP Reps. Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine during a pro forma session, so the speaker should have no problems extending the same courtesy to Grijalva.
Republicans. Johnson said publicly that his unwillingness to swear Grijalva isn’t related in any way to the Epstein files discharge petition. Here’s Johnson on Tuesday during a news conference in the Capitol:
However, the House Republican leadership later reversed its position and said Johnson wouldn’t swear Grijalva in “as soon as she wants.” It’s only going to occur when the government reopens. And no one is sure when that will happen at this point.
Privately, House Republican leadership sources swear the White House hasn’t pressured them to hold off on swearing in Grijalva to slow the Epstein discharge petition. But the Trump administration has been very worked up about the effort, which four House Republicans have signed onto.
Republicans told us that they won’t swear Grijalva in during a pro forma session because it sets a precedent that they don’t want to have to uphold. Patronis and Fine were sworn in during a pro forma session after the regular House session was canceled. Patronis’ and Fine’s families were already in town.
Is that a compelling argument? Not completely. Special elections are relatively rare. It’s not as if the speaker would be swearing in new members each time the House is out of session.
Regardless, it’s also convenient for House Republicans that the Epstein discharge petition won’t nudge its way into a news cycle where the GOP thinks they have the advantage.
– Jake Sherman
REDISTRICTING WARS
GOP fears mount in California redistricting fight
California Republicans have significantly scaled back their TV advertising against Proposition 50 amid increasing pessimism among the GOP that they’ll be able to defeat Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot measure.
To date, Newsom’s group boosting Prop 50 has spent nearly $43 million on TV, radio, digital and streaming ads. The two GOP groups opposing Prop 50 have spent a combined $27 million so far. That’s a $16 million gap.
No on Prop 50 – Protect Voters First, an anti-Prop 50 group funded by GOP donor Charles Munger Jr., has spent $20.1 million on ads so far. However, the group isn’t airing any TV ads this week, with a little less than one month away from the Nov. 4 election, per AdImpact.
No on Prop 50 – Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab, an allied group led by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has spent a little less than $7 million on ads in total. It slashed its spending from $4 million last week to less than $2 million this week so far.
Privately, many Republicans believe it’s growing more likely that Prop 50 will pass. That’s thanks to the spending advantage, as well as the fact that Democrats have successfully nationalized the race with ads featuring President Donald Trump, according to multiple sources in both parties tracking the campaign.
Fundraising for the anti-Prop 50 effort isn’t going as well as hoped. Republicans in Washington are privately miffed that McCarthy said he planned to raise $100 million for the effort but has spent less than $7 million on ads.
The McCarthy-aligned group said in a statement that it is “continuing to invest the necessary resources to run a data-driven campaign” that can reach key voters efficiently with available resources.
“No amount of campaign cash, clever spin, or all-caps posts can hide the truth: Prop 50 strips power from the people and hands it to greedy politicians at great taxpayer expense while pretending it’s for democracy,” Ellie Hockenbury, an adviser to the group, said.
Some House Republicans have chipped in: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) gave $300,000. Republican Reps. Vince Fong and Jay Obernolte of California gave $100,000 each. California GOP Reps. Ken Calvert and Doug LaMalfa, who would be drawn into deep blue districts under the proposed new map, have donated as well. LaMalfa gave $250,000.
It’s hard to overstate the significance of this ballot measure. Democrats could neutralize the new Texas congressional map. Calvert, LaMalfa, Reps. Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley and David Valadao could lose reelection. This could very well sway the battle for control of the House.
– Ally Mutnick
PRESENTED BY UNITEDHEALTH GROUP
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The Vault: Why an Obamacare deal is tough for Johnson
Speaker Mike Johnson injected a dose of pessimism into the conversation around extending enhanced Obamacare subsidies Tuesday — with good reason.
Johnson said there would need to be “dramatic changes” to the enhanced premium tax credits if they were to move forward in the House. It’s not clear if even that would be enough to save Johnson from getting crushed by disgruntled members. He’d need backing from President Donald Trump, at the least.
The politics for Johnson are incredibly difficult. House GOP sources say a big majority of Republicans oppose an extension of the subsidies. These sources believe several dozen members are interested in acting but would need all kinds of changes and caveats. A sliver of the conference wants a clean extension.
The complaints. Here are the problems many House Republicans have with an extension and what, if anything, could be done about them:
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1) Let’s start with the obvious: the credits are for Obamacare, a program Republicans have never supported. That’s enough to put many Republicans off. Johnson can’t do anything about this. It’s just a bridge the GOP would have to cross to strike a deal.
2) Democrats created the enhanced subsidies during the Covid-19 pandemic, a tough association for Republicans. Once again, Johnson can’t do a thing about it.
3) An extension would be expensive — between $30 billion and $40 billion per year. Reforms to the subsidies could lower the price tag, as would a shorter-term extension or one involving a phase-out.
4) Republicans have been griping about high-income households taking advantage of subsidies. They want new income limits.
5) GOP critics argue the subsidies are rife with fraud, in part because some enrollees don’t owe anything for their health insurance premiums. Republicans could address this by requiring a minimum contribution, even a few dollars a month.
6) Anti-abortion groups and their many GOP allies are worked up about the subsidies and want Hyde Amendment language added if Republicans wade into Obamacare. Yet adding anything abortion-related would likely be a nonstarter for Democrats, so it’s a lot less likely there’s much Johnson could do.
The takeaway. This all underscores how tricky it is for House GOP leaders to guarantee an outcome on the Obamacare cliff. That makes it much harder for Democrats to trust a promise of negotiations later in exchange for ending the government shutdown now.
— Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman
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THE CAMPAIGN
Matt Van Epps won the special GOP primary Tuesday to fill former Rep. Mark Green’s (R-Tenn.) seat after a late endorsement from President Donald Trump.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. Aftyn Behn won the nod. They’ll face off in a Dec. 2 special. Trump won Tennessee’s 7th District by 22 points in 2024.
Iowa ad. Republican Main Street Partnership is airing a $500,000 ad buy to boost GOP Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd District. Nunn, a vulnerable House Republican who flirted with a statewide run this cycle, is now committed to running for reelection to the House.
The ad hails Nunn for supporting the GOP reconciliation package, singling out the bill for including “the largest tax cut in history,” increased child tax credits, and eliminating tax on tips, overtime and Social Security.
RMSP is the political arm of the Republican Main Street Caucus. Nunn’s seat is one of the most competitive districts in the country, and the incumbent won by four points in 2024.
Iowa cash. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), who is running for the Senate, raised more than $1.7 million and has $4 million in the bank. She’s been in the race for only a month.
Pennsylvania news. Unrig Our Economy is launching a $275,000 buy going after vulnerable GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan (Pa.) over Medicaid. The ad features one of Bresnahan’s constituents, who relies on the program, criticizing the freshman Republican for supporting the reconciliation bill.
Recruitment watch. Utah state Sen. Kathleen Riebe, a Democrat, is strongly considering running for Congress in Utah if a judge approves the new congressional map passed by the Utah legislature.
“If this map holds or the judge in the case substitutes another one, I’m confident there will be a winnable seat in my area,” Riebe said.
— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick
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