The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Inside Johnson’s funding options

Who to watch in Mayorkas impeachment hearing

Schumer, McConnell say don’t forget about Ukraine

Get ready for a big day in tax policy

House GOP moves forward with Hunter Biden contempt

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Inside Johnson’s funding options

Happy Wednesday morning.

Let’s get smart quickly on where we stand on government funding nine days before the first partial shutdown deadline.

→	There’s a bipartisan, bicameral topline spending deal. It’s precisely what we thought it would be — the Fiscal Responsibility Act with some slight tweaks.

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Whip John Thune and most otherwise seasoned and honest Republicans and Democrats are now saying that Congress needs to pass a short-term stopgap funding bill to avert a partial shutdown next weekend. Thune went as far as suggesting Washington should punt the funding fight until March, a strategy that has support on both sides of the Capitol.

→	Speaker Mike Johnson, who has been the subject of widespread anger from conservatives over agreeing to the FRA levels, is still saying very little about his next move.

In a closed-door GOP leadership meeting Tuesday evening, Johnson repeatedly made the case that Republicans need to avoid a government shutdown. But he’s saying nothing about a CR.

We spoke to Johnson Tuesday night, and here’s what he told us:

Johnson may have many skills, but he’s no magician. The appropriators Johnson is talking about know that they won’t be able to finish by next week.

We spoke to several House GOP leadership sources about what options are available to the Louisiana Republican.

1) The cleanest option is to pass a CR next week and move the deadlines for all 12 spending bills to March. This would allow the appropriators to get the funding bills done in a rational way. The downside here is that this would effectively undo the “laddered” approach to government funding that Johnson has been bragging about. All the bills would come to the floor around the same time. House GOP conservatives will be mad, but they won’t vote for the spending bills anyway.

2) Johnson can pass a CR next week to avoid a Jan. 19 shutdown. According to leadership sources, Johnson doesn’t appear ready to do this. But it seems like a decent option if the right erupts.

3) The four bills that expire Jan. 19 are Agriculture, Energy and Water, MilCon-VA and Transportation-HUD. Johnson could let those departments shut down next weekend while appropriators continue to try to hash out the bills covering those agencies. There’s absolutely no upside to this at all, or at least none that we can see.

4) Johnson could just ignore both deadlines and let everything shut down. Again, nothing gained here for any Republicans.

The question Johnson needs to try to answer is what is it that he’s trying to achieve. If Johnson wants to fund the government while fighting for GOP policy changes at the same time, he’s not going to be able to do that by next week. In fact, Johnson may not be able to do that at all. But the more time he has, the better off he is. Johnson has already effectively taken a shutdown off the table. So the next logical step is choosing a CR strategy.

The GOP leadership needs to move quickly. If Johnson wants to have a say in this process, he will have to make a decision and get moving or else the Senate will jam him.

Among some in the House GOP, Johnson is on thin ice. House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) got into a heated discussion with the speaker during Tuesday night’s meeting. Here’s what Good told us about the prospect of a stopgap afterward:

One question that’s bouncing around the leadership is whether hardline conservatives will try to dump Johnson over this deal. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) has openly raised the possibility, while Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) — one of the eight GOP lawmakers who pushed for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ouster — acknowledged “A lot of people are talking about it, but not yet. I think they’d like to see something on the border.”

Yet despite the complaints over the spending deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — and there are a lot — Johnson still has broad support within the conference.

“People are emotional all the time and say all sorts of different things,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said of the backlash. “For us, it’s about just getting the [spending] bills done.”

House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) doesn’t like the spending deal and is likely to vote no but also sees no serious effort to dump Johnson.

“I don’t think there’s any focus on that at all,” Jordan said, adding that he still backs Johnson.

Also: Former Speaker John Boehner will host a fundraiser for Johnson next month.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

Who to watch in Mayorkas impeachment hearing

The Homeland Security Committee will officially launch today what’s expected to be a quick impeachment proceeding into DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. In reality, Republicans have been building toward this moment for months.

The panel will hold its first impeachment hearing at 10 a.m. Three GOP state attorneys general who have been critical of the Biden administration’s border policies will testify. We have more about the hearing’s witnesses here.

Meanwhile, the White House has been holding direct calls between senior staff and Mayorkas on the political strategy to combat the impeachment effort.

A list of talking points, obtained by Punchbowl News, is being circulated to television hosts, Hill Democrats and outside liberal groups. And DHS put out a memo this morning referring to the impeachment as “baseless.”

We’ll note that it’s very unusual — but not unprecedented — for any impeachment case not to be run through the Judiciary Committee. But that panel is busy with its own impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, so Republicans are using the Homeland Security panel instead.

Here’s who to watch today:

Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.): Green will lead the debate, painting Mayorkas as a lawless tyrant who has purposefully encouraged open borders.

Green has been under pressure from fellow House conservatives, who felt he was moving too slow on his investigation into Mayorkas. Green spent a year probing what he said was Mayorkas’ dereliction of duty overseeing the border. His five-phase investigation wrapped in December.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.): Greene has been one of the Mayorkas’ loudest critics and biggest foes. Greene filed a privileged resolution to impeach Mayorkas back in November, which was referred back to the Homeland Security panel. Greene was assured by Speaker Mike Johnson that Republicans would move ahead with impeaching Mayorkas.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas): Gonzales, who isn’t always aligned with his party on the border, has been fully supportive of the Mayorkas’ impeachment push. Gonzales helped whip votes for Greene’s resolution to impeach Mayorkas and has been a confidant to the Georgia Republican. Gonzales’ district lies on the border and includes Eagle Pass.

Ranking Member Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.): Thompson has consistently called Green’s investigation a farce. The committee’s top Democrat accused Green of pre-planning an impeachment effort into Mayorkas long before the probe was wrapped up. Most, if not all, Democrats share Thompson’s view.

Reps. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), Lou Correa (D-Calif.) and Glenn Ivey (D-Md.): These three Democrats are all lawyers and have experience in impeachment cases and congressional investigations. Goldman was the lead counsel in the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump. Ivey goes back to the Whitewater investigation as a Senate aide. Correa served in the Judiciary Committee for Trump’s impeachment.

Their take — there’s no “there” there. While not downplaying the problems at the southern border or U.S. immigration policy, these Democrats say there’s no “high crime or misdemeanor” that would warrant Mayorkas’ removal.

— Mica Soellner and John Bresnahan

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

Schumer, McConnell say don’t forget about Ukraine

Congress cannot pass additional Ukraine aid without first reaching an agreement on border security and immigration. As a result, much of the focus inside the Capitol has been on the latter.

But the top Democrat and Republican in the Senate are spending a lot of time urging their colleagues to not lose sight of Russia’s ongoing assault on Ukraine.

Their comments underscore how that war has been overshadowed by recent headlines about the border talks stalling out, Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s failure to disclose his medical condition.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer warned Tuesday that the Ukrainians are “running out of ammunition.” Minority Leader Mitch McConnell criticized what he called the “fickleness” of Western support for Ukraine.

According to several attendees, McConnell spoke during the GOP lunch about the need to pass a national-security supplemental funding package, mentioning Ukraine multiple times.

Minutes later at his weekly press conference, McConnell didn’t mince words about the state of global affairs:

McConnell also noted this week that Russia is escalating its attacks on Ukraine, including with ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea. And he mentioned the steady rise in Iranian proxies’ attacks on Israel as well as on American troops in the region.

Biden administration officials have been sounding the alarm on Ukraine’s dire outlook for months, and that hasn’t accelerated the glacial border talks.

The border security portion remains a must-have for even the GOP’s most vocal Ukraine hawks including McConnell, regardless of the dim prospects for House passage of an eventual border-Ukraine deal.

— Andrew Desiderio

Get ready for a big day in tax policy

Today’s schedule is packed with meetings that could determine the fate of a highly-anticipated bipartisan tax deal.

But even as top tax writers are on the verge of a deal, they’ll need to navigate a deeply skeptical Washington and some notable dissent from across the Capitol.

The agenda: Senate Finance Committee Democrats plan to meet this morning, while House Ways and Means Committee Republicans are set to huddle over lunch. Ways and Means Democrats will gather at 2 p.m. to talk through the potential deal.

The agreement between Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) is expected to be in the $50 billion to $80 billion range, as we scooped Tuesday.

That includes a roughly even split for reviving business tax benefits and for expanding the child tax credit — before expected add-ins like savings from addressing employee retention tax credit fraud that would lower that price tag.

Not there yet: The policy details are close, but this deal still has some major obstacles to clear.

The first question is whether all Four Corners of the tax committees will back the proposal.

Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, the top Republican on the Finance panel, told us that while he’s hopeful about talks, he’s still got questions about how to get it done.

“There is concern about both the vehicle, which impacts the politics of putting the deal together, and some concerns about substance,” Crapo said. He later added: “The absence or presence of a vehicle impacts the ability to put together the substance of a deal.”

To be clear, it’s going to be extremely tough to get this passed — whether it’s attached to a government funding deal or attempted on its own — before tax filing season begins Jan. 29.

Senate Republicans are likely to have questions about what the child tax credit expansion looks like and the scope of a deal as talks advance.

Crapo sat down with Wyden late Tuesday afternoon. Wyden said leaving the meeting that it’s “a very challenging time both in terms of policy and procedure, and we’re going to pull out all the stops to get there.”

Another hurdle: Some Democrats aren’t thrilled about accepting a smaller child tax credit expansion compared to their 2021 version. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), a top child tax credit advocate, told us Tuesday night that she was skeptical of the tax talks, saying that “the only deal on the child tax credit is to do what we did in the American Rescue Plan.”

The sales pitches did kick off on Tuesday night. Smith met with some senior GOP committee members, with some positive reviews afterward.

— Laura Weiss and Brendan Pedersen

CONTEMPT WATCH

House GOP moves forward with Hunter Biden contempt

Hunter Biden has already been indicted by a special counsel on multiple federal criminal charges related to gun ownership and tax avoidance. And today, House Republicans will take the unprecedented step of moving forward with holding President Joe Biden’s son in contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena.

But the process isn’t as straightforward as it sounds.

The House Judiciary and Oversight Committees will separately mark up a report today laying out the GOP argument for holding Hunter Biden in contempt. Both committees will then recommend that the House vote on a contempt resolution. That resolution could come up for a floor vote as soon as next week, we’re told.

The resolution seeks to refer Hunter Biden to the Justice Department for criminal contempt of Congress. It would also authorize the House to sue the younger Biden in civil court to compel his testimony.

The contempt resolution is the latest example of how the GOP impeachment investigation into the president has focused on Biden’s family members. Republicans are searching for any proof that Biden’s actions as vice president were improperly affected by his family’s business dealings.

To date, the inquiry hasn’t found any conclusive evidence of impeachable offenses.

Remember: The House Judiciary and Oversight Committees subpoenaed Hunter Biden in November to appear for a December private deposition. Hunter Biden showed up to the Capitol on the day of his scheduled closed-door interview. But he thumbed his nose at the House GOP, declining to testify privately and offering to participate in a public hearing instead.

Reps. James Comer (R-Ky.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) insisted they wouldn’t allow the targets of the investigation to dictate their probe and vowed to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress.

James Biden update: Comer told us in the Capitol Tuesday night that “we’re still trying to schedule a date” to interview James Biden, the president’s brother. “I’m still hopeful that we’ll hear from him,” Comer added.

Comer also told us Oversight staff also have an appointment to interview former Hunter Biden associate Tony Bobulinski in a number of weeks.

— Max Cohen

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