NEWS: Inside the talks to open the government

IN THIS EDITION

How Democrats may reopen the government

Inside Michael Whatley’s N.C. Senate bid

What we’re watching on Election Day

The Vault: Kennedy digs in against FDIC nom

THE TOP

How Democrats may reopen the government

Happy Tuesday morning.

Today is Day 35 of the government shutdown. This stalemate is now tied with the partial shutdown of 2018-2019 as the longest in U.S. history.

The House has been out of session for 46 days.

Today is also Election Day in New York City, California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

We want to focus this morning on the progress in reopening the government. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Monday that the Senate is “getting close to an offramp” to end the shutdown, citing bipartisan talks among a group of rank-and-file senators. We have a full in-the-room update on that.

News: The outlines of a potential deal to end the shutdown are starting to take shape, although the talks are very fragile at this point and there’s still a long way to go.

Senators and aides involved in negotiations tell us some Senate Democrats are warming to Thune’s offer to open the government and then hold a vote by a date-certain on extending the expiring Obamacare subsidies. Senators involved in these talks include Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Katie Britt (R-Ala.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.).

The shutdown has become too painful, many of these Democrats believe, and Republicans clearly aren’t going to cave by negotiating an Obamacare deal before the stalemate ends. A date-certain vote on Obamacare subsidies creates another new deadline and allows time to craft a bill that could win enough GOP support.

Now that open enrollment has begun, these Democrats say, they can blame Republicans for premium hikes — as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer did during a floor speech Monday — and use that to pressure GOP senators on the issue.

The second element under discussion involves pairing the stopgap funding bill to open the government with a three-bill minibus and other guarantees to pass full-year appropriations bills on an agreed-upon timeline.

“There’s certainly ways to do that,” Peters told us. “We all want to have a real appropriations process … We’ve passed a number of bills [in committee], broadly bipartisan. I’d like to actually see those get signed into law.”

The attractive part of this offer for senators would be to avoid a full-year CR that many hardline House Republicans and the White House want. You may have noticed that most of the senators involved in these talks are also appropriators. That’s no coincidence.

The GOP senators in the bipartisan group are explicitly framing this as a way for Democrats to not only preserve their power over the funding process, but also to push back against House Republicans and the White House.

To be abundantly clear, accepting this offer would be a cave by Democrats, who have been saying they need an Obamacare deal to open the government. But this construct would only require a handful of Democrats to break from their party.

Progressives will be livid. A commitment to vote on an Obamacare bill is far from a guarantee that it will pass in the Senate, much less in the House. It’ll be fascinating to see how Schumer handles this.

Cautious optimism. There’s good reason to be skeptical about what we just laid out. For starters, landing on a new end date for a CR to reopen federal agencies will be difficult. The Senate will vote for the 14th time today on a GOP-drafted Nov. 21 CR.

Conservatives, fearing a Christmas omnibus, want any CR to run until early 2026. Collins — desperate to make her panel relevant again — is proposing Dec. 19 instead. Collins said Monday that a January deadline makes a “disastrous” year-long CR more likely.

By suggesting Dec. 19 and saying she wants to avoid a year-long CR, Collins is reflecting Democrats’ view, too.

But House Republican leaders are extremely unlikely to agree to a December CR deadline. And the White House would much prefer early 2026. Trump administration officials pushed for that last time.

The minibus — which funds Military Construction-VA, Legislative Branch and Agriculture — being attached to the CR would force Speaker Mike Johnson to bring the House back into session for a bill that his conference certainly wouldn’t like. That’s part of the pitch from Senate GOP appropriators in the bipartisan Senate group.

The problem for Senate Republicans is that they haven’t yet been able to clear objections on their side, although they expect to be able to resolve them.

The White House will have to be deeply involved here. House Republicans aren’t going to want to swallow a minibus paired with a short-term CR. To that end, President Donald Trump will need to wholeheartedly embrace both the CR end-date and the minibus.

But you can be absolutely sure that hardline House Republicans will argue that they should only accept a straight CR needed to open the government.

The tough road for Republicans. We’ve come a long way from what Democrats were initially seeking: an Obamacare subsidies deal etched into the CR to keep the government open. Democrats were then demanding a vote on a one-year Obamacare subsidy extension — set at a simple-majority threshold — paired with a commitment to vote on a longer-term solution by a date-certain.

When the government eventually reopens, it gets very tricky for Republicans. We’ve said countless times that the GOP is going to be hard-pressed to find an Obamacare deal that they can live with.

And then there’s FY2026 spending, where Senate Republicans will find more natural agreement with Senate Democratic counterparts than House Republicans.

— Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

TODAY at 9:30 a.m. ET: House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) will join us for a conversation focused on the news of the day, FEMA reform efforts and the role that the federal government plays in disaster response and recovery. There’s still time to RSVP!

Kicking off 2026: Our election special newsletter, the Tally, is back as we gear up for the midterms, where mid-decade redistricting will reshape Congress. Look out for it in your inboxes later this morning.

THE CAMPAIGN

Inside Michael Whatley’s N.C. Senate bid

LAS VEGAS — Just before announcing he wouldn’t seek reelection, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) warned that the One Big Beautiful Bill would kick hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians off Medicaid — and that Republicans would pay a price at the ballot box.

Yet the Republican who wants to succeed Tillis in the Senate disagrees, even as he treads carefully on other affordability and cost-of-living issues like tariffs and Obamacare subsidies.

In an interview on the sidelines of the Republican Jewish Coalition summit, former RNC Chair Michael Whatley defended President Donald Trump’s top legislative achievement, which included steep Medicaid cuts. Whatley said purging undocumented immigrants from Medicaid rolls, rooting out fraud and imposing new work requirements are popular.

“Those are widely supported in North Carolina. Those are widely supported across the country,” Whatley told us. “And I don’t see that those provisions are going to cause a political backlash.”

Whatley, who has the backing of Trump and Senate GOP leaders, will almost certainly face a barrage of Democratic attacks over his OBBB support. At the same time, Whatley is striking a delicate balance on affordability issues facing Republican candidates across the country.

The North Carolina race is a must-win for Democrats to have any hope of reclaiming the Senate majority, which is already an uphill battle. Whatley is set to face off against former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, a formidable opponent in what will be one of the most expensive Senate races in the country next year.

Tariffs, Obamacare and more. Whatley noted that Republicans’ 2024 electoral victories were fueled by Americans’ concerns about rising costs — the very same issue Democrats are looking to use to their advantage in the midterms.

“The affordability issue was the number-one driver in the 2024 election cycle [and] why President Trump was able to win all seven battleground states,” Whatley told us. “We need to make sure that we’re going to have policies that are going to be able to make everything more affordable.”

Trump’s tariffs are a lightning-rod issue for Democrats because of their impact on the price of everyday goods, plus the fact that Republicans generally don’t like them.

Interestingly, Whatley declined to say how he would’ve voted on Senate resolutions aimed at blocking Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Brazil, as well as the president’s global tariff regime. The Senate narrowly passed all three last week, with a handful of Republicans joining all Democrats. Whatley said he hadn’t reviewed the specifics of these bills.

But Whatley’s refusal to side with the vast majority of his would-be GOP colleagues was notable. Whatley said Trump’s tariffs are “a work in progress,” adding that Americans want “a trade regime that is going to work for American manufacturers, small businesses and farmers.”

Whatley also signaled support for addressing the expiring Obamacare subsidies after the government shutdown ends.

“This is one of several issues that they actually want to negotiate, they want to have that conversation on,” Whatley said of GOP leaders. “They need to figure it out. But obviously you just cannot have that conversation taking place while the government is shut down.”

Whatley vs. Cooper. Trump carried North Carolina by three points in 2024, but the state has routinely shown it can elect Democrats to statewide office. Democrats won the governorship and the attorney general race last year.

Getting Cooper, a popular two-term ex-governor, was a major recruiting coup for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

So Whatley is looking to shatter the notion that Cooper is a middle-of-the-road Democrat, accusing him of embracing soft-on-crime policies.

“Roy Cooper is a card-carrying member of the woke mob who has stood with the far left his whole career,” Whatley said.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE CAMPAIGN

What we’re watching on Election Day

Happy Election Day. Here’s what we’re watching nationwide and how the results will affect Congress.

California redistricting. Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) plan to redraw the state’s congressional maps to help Democrats pick up as many as five House seats, is on the ballot Tuesday.

This is the single-most important off-year campaign in the battle for control of Congress. But it’s also largely a fait accompli because Republicans all but ceded this race.

By the numbers: Democrats spent nearly $98 million on ads to boost Prop 50, per AdImpact. Republicans spent $38 million.

The affected Republicans: Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao, Darrell Issa and Ken Calvert. Here’s how their districts could change:

— LaMalfa’s northern California district will shift from a seat President Donald Trump won by 25 points to one former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 12 points.

— Kiley’s Sacramento-area district shifts from a Trump +4 to a Harris +10.

— Valadao’s Central Valley seat moves from a Trump +6 to a Trump +2.

— Issa’s southern California seat moves from a Trump +15 to a Harris +3.

— Calvert’s Trump +6 Inland Empire district jumps to Los Angeles and becomes one Harris would have won by 14 points.

New Jersey governor. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) faces former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli in what’s become a critical fight. Sherrill has drawn some criticism for being too rehearsed and cautious, but she’s still the front-runner here. Barely.

This race will be a big temperature check for New Jersey’s Latino population, which swung hard to the right in 2024. The margins in Latino-heavy areas will give an indication of how those voters feel about the first year of the Trump presidency.

Virginia governor. Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is the favorite to defeat GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. We’ll be tracking the vote totals in purple seats represented by Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), Eugene Vindman (D-Va.) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.).

Democrats expect Trump’s targeting of the federal workforce will harm GOP candidates in Virginia. Tomorrow will be the first test of that theory.

New York mayor. With a big win, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani can inspire his party’s left flank. Many moderate Democrats are rallying around Andrew Cuomo, concerned Republicans will tie vulnerable incumbents to Mamdani’s left-wing beliefs. We should note Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer hasn’t endorsed yet.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Three justices on Pennsylvania’s highest court have a retention election today. The current court partisan split is five Democrats to two Republicans. All three judges on the ballot ran as Democrats.

Republicans see an opportunity to flip the balance of power on a court that could decide future redistricting cases.

Maine referendum. A ballot initiative that would restrict voting access in Maine has some Democrats worried. If the referendum passes, Democrats could be in a tougher position to unseat Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) next fall.

– Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign. Zohran Mamdani features House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ photo in a new ad. In the 15-second spot, Mamdani says that it’s time to tax the 1%. The ad ends with photos of Jeffries, Gov. Kathy Hochul, Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Attorney General Tish James as a list of notable endorsements.

You can watch the spot here.

Downtown Download. Yamaha Motor Corp., the motorcycle giant, has hired Checkmate Government Relations to lobby on trade. Chris LaCivita Jr. is on the account.

– Jake Sherman

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