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THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning.
On Capitol Hill, members of Congress and their staff are judged in the moment. Every day, senior party leaders are making decisions on tactics and strategy that have major implications for all their colleagues.
By this measure, Speaker Mike Johnson is having a relatively good start to the second week of his speakership.
What’s more, it came as Republicans were openly attacking each other on the floor of both the House and Senate. A group of New York Republicans tried and failed to expel indicted fellow New York GOP Rep. George Santos (although they gave themselves some political cover). And Senate Republicans angrily went after Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) for hours over his military promotions embargo.
Overall, not a great look for the GOP. Johnson did OK, though.
After doubting all Wednesday whether they’d be able to pass the Legislative Branch spending bill, the House cleared the bill easily with four Democrats voting yes. Sure, this wasn’t Johnson but rather the whip team and, to a lesser extent, the majority leader’s team that got it done. Yet Johnson’s leadership crew rolled the dice on a partisan spending bill and got a win.
The Santos’ vote was also a win of sorts for Johnson, although not one he’d brag about. Johnson’s leadership team worked hard to stop Santos’ expulsion for the moment — and their efforts succeeded. The House Ethics Committee says it will release an update on its Santos probe in the next two weeks. This could lead to the freshman lawmaker’s expulsion.
Although Johnson’s $14 billion Israel aid bill adds to the deficit, faces oblivion in the Senate and resembles a Republican Study Committee work product rather than a leadership-driven bill, conservatives are largely backing him up in his first big legislative showdown. The proposal slashes $14 billion from the IRS to offset its cost, which is why the Democratic-run Senate will reject it and President Joe Biden has vowed to veto it if the measure ever reaches his desk.
We never thought House Republicans would make their support for Israel conditional on anything, let alone cutting IRS funding. Still, Johnson’s standard here is worth noting because it could inform further debates.
Senate Republicans including Sens. Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Rick Scott (Fla.) hosted Johnson at a largely laudatory GOP lunch Wednesday. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who thinks Johnson’s plan to leave Ukraine funding out of the bill is wrong, sat quietly during the meeting.
Johnson had a good conversation with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries Wednesday too. Now, this should be unremarkable. Grown adults who have differences of opinion should be able to meet without much fuss.
But when it looked like Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) may become speaker, Jeffries’ team was clear that they wouldn’t be able to work with him. Both leaders emerged from the session Wednesday saying the right things.
And finally, Johnson hosted Fox News’ Sean Hannity for a session in the Capitol Wednesday night with other GOP lawmakers. This is the second lengthy sitdown the new speaker has done with Hannity already, which shows you exactly who Johnson is trying to play toward since taking over for Kevin McCarthy.
But let’s jump back to Planet Earth for a moment. Johnson still has some potentially very rough days and weeks ahead.
The House GOP leadership has told us they may have to push back consideration of the $14 billion Israel aid package because of expected attendance issues today. Several lawmakers are flying to Texas for former President Donald Trump’s rally in Houston.
Two appropriations bills up this week are also proving to be tough lifts. The New York GOP delegation has raised concerns about the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development bill due to steep spending cuts — and the leadership is skeptical they have the votes to pass it. The Interior spending bill is running into stiff resistance too.
Johnson’s biggest jam in the medium and long term is Ukraine funding. Johnson told Republican senators he can’t move a combined Ukraine-Israel aid bill. The speaker repeated that stance to Hannity on Wednesday night.
But that’s exactly what McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer want. And President Joe Biden too. So what will Johnson do if that gets dropped into his lap?
Johnson has softened his position on Ukraine overall. After voting against assistance for Kyiv in September, Johnson is now privately telling people he is in favor of sending more cash to the Ukrainians. This will land him in hot water with House conservatives.
And in 16 short days, the government will run out of money. Johnson is pitching a stopgap until the middle of January. It’s far from clear to us that the Senate will go for that.
Some news on the staffing front: Johnson is bringing back Josh Hodges as his national security adviser. Hodges worked for Johnson in 2017-18 before decamping for the Trump administration. Hodges worked at the Energy Department, USAID and served two stints on the National Security Council, where he eventually became the senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
Join Punchbowl News founder & CEO Anna Palmer and MSNBC host Symone Sanders-Townsend for a conversation with Reps. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) and Nikema Williams (D-Ga.) on Tuesday, Nov. 14, starting at 5 p.m. ET. They’ll discuss disparities impacting Black women, including those in health, finance and education. The program will be followed by a cocktail reception with drinks and light bites. RSVP now!
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THE SENATE
Inside Senate Republicans’ decision to unload on Tuberville
Nine months of pent-up anger — and a contentious lunch meeting — gave way to an extraordinary fight Wednesday night between Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and his GOP colleagues on the Senate floor.
Republican defense hawks unleashed their fury on Tuberville. They spent four-plus hours haranguing him as they tried to confirm dozens of the more than 300 military promotions the Alabama GOP senator has been blocking over his opposition to the Pentagon’s abortion policy.
“Their careers are being punished over a policy dispute they had nothing to do with and that they have no power to resolve,” said Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), a Marine reservist who co-led the offensive on the floor.
It was a moment months in the making. But one that came together abruptly on Wednesday after GOP senators tussled over their party’s inaction on the crisis during a private meeting, according to multiple sources.
“We’re each getting calls from military families that are being impacted by this hold, and we recognize that there is personal suffering as well as issues of military readiness,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) told us late Wednesday. “So we need to act.”
But it quickly became clear that not even a parade of angry GOP hawks could convince Tuberville to back off. Tuberville stayed on the floor the entire night, objecting to each promotion as his fellow Republicans extolled the credentials of 61 different nominees.
Republicans prefaced their remarks on the floor by saying they, like Tuberville, oppose the Pentagon’s abortion policy. But they quickly abandoned any niceties as the evening dragged on, vowing to continue pressing their case in the coming days.
As Tuberville continued to object, Sullivan said at one point that Tuberville was on a “national security suicide mission.”
Three hours in and dozens of objections later, Sullivan lost it: “Xi Jinping is loving this. So is Putin. How dumb can we be, man?”
Just past 10 p.m., Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), an Army combat veteran who co-led the floor effort, insinuated that Tuberville isn’t a man of his word.
“We have done the best we can to honor the request of a fellow senator that these nominations be brought to the floor and voted on individually,” she said. “I really respect men of their word. I do not respect men who do not honor their word.”
So why now?
Sullivan and other Republicans were using procedural tactics over the last week to force floor votes on individual high-level military promotions as a way to circumvent Tuberville’s blockade. The war in Israel also played a role because several CENTCOM positions are among those Tuberville is blocking.
But Sullivan said there’s been no progress toward a solution. “The world is a dangerous place,” Sullivan added, “so tonight we’re taking a different approach.”
Republicans had been sitting on the sidelines while Democrats took to the Senate floor on a near-weekly basis all year to hammer Republicans for “enabling” Tuberville. Some GOP senators spoke out against Tuberville’s tactics, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but Tuberville never faced real pressure to back down.
Last week, things began to change. We scooped that Democrats were crafting a resolution that would temporarily allow many of the stalled promotions to be confirmed en bloc. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has since announced he’d bring it to the floor.
Republicans are skittish about this, fearing it could set a precedent that weakens individual senators’ power. At the GOP lunch Wednesday, senators complained that they didn’t have a strategy of their own to counter it. Ernst had told us she worried Democrats would try to “shove [a rules change] down our throats” if Tuberville’s blockade continues.
By 6 p.m., Sullivan and Ernst had commandeered the floor, and the nine-month saga entered a new phase with an entirely different strategy: Publicly shame Tuberville.
“We’ve been reading off these names just as fast as our staff can get them to us,” Ernst said, underscoring the last-minute nature of the proposal.
Schumer reiterated he still plans to hold a vote on the resolution. Tuberville’s continued intransigence could lead some Republicans to support it as a last resort.
— Andrew Desiderio
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Is the Biden impeachment inquiry entering the home stretch?
House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) is signaling his panel’s impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden is entering the final phase. That got us thinking: With a looming government shutdown deadline in two weeks, could Speaker Mike Johnson entice his far-right flank to put up with a continuing resolution if he offers major action on impeachment?
The idea isn’t concrete yet, to be sure. And many Democrats we spoke to don’t see how Republicans can wrap up the impeachment inquiry so quickly.
But Johnson has made clear that he intends to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open until mid-January. This could incense a small band of conservatives who oppose CRs in any form.
And a note of caution for Johnson: We’ve been here before. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy officially launched the impeachment inquiry into Biden in September. Many saw the move as an attempt by McCarthy to throw a bone to his right-wing detractors. But the appeal fell flat and McCarthy was ousted less than a month later after passing a short-term funding bill.
Comer, for his part, has ramped up his investigative work in recent weeks by releasing records of payments from Biden family members to the president.
“We’re in the downhill phase of this investigation,” Comer told right-wing podcast host Benny Johnson recently, expressing a desire to issue a final impeachment report “as soon as possible.”
But two key payments are classified as loan repayments from his brother James Biden. And House GOP investigators have yet to reveal any evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Joe Biden, despite claims of a “smoking gun.”
What’s next: Under Johnson, a key ally of impeachment investigator and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the House is taking a more aggressive stance on the matter. The speaker indicated to Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he believes Biden has engaged in bribery — there’s no evidence quite yet. Comer repeated the bribery claim on Hannity last night.
Johnson has also signaled he’s willing to subpoena Hunter Biden to come before Congress, arguing “desperate times call for desperate measures.”
Who else thinks this probe is ending in impeachment? House Republicans themselves. Hannity asked an audience of GOP lawmakers Wednesday night to raise their hands if they thought Biden would be impeached. The whole room agreed.
House Democrats say they’re waiting for more overt cues from the majority before they start intensely planning how to respond to the next steps on impeachment.
“The last two hot flashes were about how President Joe Biden, when he was a private citizen, made a private loan to his brother, which was repaid,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the panel’s top Democrat, told us. “That hardly sounds like an impeachable offense to me. I think it’s a wild goose chase in a desperate search for something to hang their hat on.”
Comer told us last month that he wasn’t likely to hold more hearings — the first one didn’t go as planned — and would instead focus on more controlled settings like transcribed interviews or depositions.
— Max Cohen
Tim Scott’s plan to ‘revitalize’ US capital markets
News: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) will release a framework today outlining a vision for Republican-led reform of U.S. capital markets. The Securities and Exchange Commission is on the menu.
Scott is the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee and a GOP presidential candidate. But this approach is in some ways a departure from previous Republican attempts at reform of capital market rules — see the JOBS Act. Scott is calling his bill the Empowering Main Street in America Act, and you can read a fact sheet on it here.
The clearest objective here is reining in the SEC, the federal markets regulator led by Chair Gary Gensler. Republicans have frequently butted up against Gensler over the past two years.
Scott promises to change that by mandating the SEC chair testify twice in both chambers of Congress, issue more reports to Congress and use more robust cost-benefit analysis tied to proposed regulations.
Beyond the SEC, we’re told the Scott plan is aimed at reforming both public and private markets. Prior efforts have focused mostly on public markets. Scott’s emphasis on private markets is intended to make it easier for a wider spectrum of small businesses to access capital.
The legislative text doesn’t quite exist yet. Scott’s team wants feedback from industry and other market participants before putting pen to paper. We’ll keep you posted.
Housing scoop: TransUnion is mounting another effort to stop the Federal Housing Finance Agency from changing its credit report requirements for mortgages.
In a letter we obtained, TransUnion urges the Federal Housing Finance Agency to abandon its plan for a “bi-merge,” which would reduce the number of credit reports a borrower needs in order for a mortgage to be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The credit bureau — one of the three big ones, along with Experian and Equifax — argues the shift will reduce access to credit, citing internal research. The FHFA under the Biden administration has argued the shift to bi-merge would expand mortgage access, but it delayed the transition in September.
Here’s the core of TransUnion’s warning:
“[A]s many as two million consumers who would qualify for a mortgage under the tri-merge system would fall below the required minimum credit score of 620 when only two credit scores are submitted to lenders. Moreover, we found that more than 50% of the consumers in this group are Black or Hispanic.’’
Senate Republicans led by Scott back in October urged the FHFA to change course in the bi-merge process.
— Brendan Pedersen
THE CAMPAIGN
Do you like skiing? Will you be hankering for a trip to Jackson Hole, Wyo., in March? Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) has you covered.
Kuster is hosting her “spring ski weekend” March 15-18 with special guests Reps. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), Jim Himes (D-Conn.) and Lori Trahan (D-Mass.). You’ll need deep pockets for this one. For PACs, it will cost $2,500. If you’re digging into your own pocket, it will set you back $1,500.
— Jake Sherman
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MOMENTS
10 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
11 a.m.: House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar and Vice Chair Ted Lieu will hold a post-meeting press conference.
Noon: Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with the Dominican Republic’s President Luis Abinader.
1:30 p.m.: Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby will brief.
2:45 p.m.: Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with Chilean President Gabriel Boric.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “Alaska Man Threatened to ‘Kidnap and Injure’ a U.S. Senator, Police Say,” by Mike Ives and Christine Hauser |
→ | “Risk of a Wider Middle East War Threatens a ‘Fragile’ World Economy,” by Patricia Cohen |
→ | “Ady Barkan, Health Care Activist, Dies at 39,” by Mike Ives |
WSJ
→ | “Justice Department Probes Live Nation’s Agreements With Venues, Artists,” by Anne Steele and Dave Michaels |
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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