Why MTG's missive rang true for House GOP

IN THIS EDITION

What MTG got right

CIA in Mexico raised concerns about Crenshaw to Langley

Can Congress actually pass Russia sanctions now?

Ernst eyes NDAA for small biz push

THE TOP

What MTG got right

Happy Monday morning. Happy Thanksgiving week. We are only publishing AM editions through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday are company-wide holidays.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who will retire from Congress in 42 days, announced the end of her House career Friday night in a manifesto, of sorts, that sounded many of the notes of concern we hear about President Donald Trump’s second term.

The crux of MTG’s message is that Trump and House Republicans are abandoning all of the president’s priorities, falling into complacency and are on the brink of squandering their razor-thin majority.

Let’s dispense with the caveats. MTG has never been representative of the House Republican Conference writ large. She clearly has a bone to pick with Trump and the leadership. MTG may have her eye on the governorship — that chatter picked up again over the weekend. She was also never a fan of Speaker Mike Johnson.

MTG’s four-page note was stinging for House Republicans. Why? Because the message rang true to so many in the House GOP.

In fact, a few other GOP members messaged us over the weekend saying that they, too, are considering retiring in the middle of the term.

Here’s one particularly exercised senior House Republican:

Of course, Johnson’s team points out they have impossibly small margins and believe they are doing what they can with the hand they were dealt.

But the idea that Republicans could lose their majority this Congress is no longer far-fetched. If Johnson were to lose another House Republican in the middle of this term to retirement, death or illness, there’s a decent chance that the GOP can end up in the minority at some point in 2026.

The math. Republicans have 219 seats and Democrats have 213. There’s a special election in Tennessee on Dec. 2 to fill former Rep. Mark Green’s (R-Tenn.) seat. Democrats and Republicans are pouring piles of money into that district, which Trump won by more than 20 points.

If Republicans win, their margin will remain the same after MTG’s retirement.

But Democrats will gain a seat in Houston at the end of January when voters choose the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s (D-Texas) replacement. And on April 16, New Jersey voters will choose Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s replacement. That’s a seat that former Vice President Kamala Harris won by nine percentage points in 2024.

Let’s say Democrats are able to steal the Tennessee seat based on subpar GOP turnout — unlikely but possible — Johnson would have 218 members to Democrats’ 214. Texas and New Jersey would bring Democrats to 216. If any members retire or fall ill, Johnson would be sunk.

House retirements and resignations are common after holidays. How appealing is it to return to the Capitol when the House spends most of its time voting on censure resolutions or meaningless messaging bills?

The calendar. The legislative climate is brutal. Enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies expire at the end of December. Trump is expected to propose a new plan in the coming days that may include an extension of the subsidies so Republicans can come up with their own long-term proposal. This will split the GOP on Capitol Hill. We first reported on this effort last week.

Government funding expires Jan. 30, and House lawmakers already privately acknowledge they will get jammed by the Senate.

Johnson is facing a restive rank and file. Lawmakers have filed discharge petitions on health care, Russia sanctions and, after the recess is over, Republicans and Democrats will likely file one to ban stock trading in Congress.

Discharge petitions are, by nature, a cry of discontent from the rank and file.

It’s gotten so bad that Johnson said he wants to change House rules to make it harder to file discharge petitions. This will never pass. But it does underscore just how frustrated the leadership is with losing control of the House.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed Congress July 3 — 144 days ago. Since then, the House has been wracked by fighting. Redistricting is blowing up in the GOP’s face, as the party faces a significant challenge to its map in Texas and seemingly unmovable state lawmakers in Indiana.

Trump most recently cozied up to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani in the Oval Office, raising questions about whether the GOP can follow up on their plans to run a nationwide campaign against the democratic socialist.

The midterm elections are 344 days away.

– Jake Sherman

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WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

CIA in Mexico raised concerns about Crenshaw to Langley

News: CIA officials in Mexico City sent a cable to the agency’s headquarters in Langley, Va., alarmed at Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s (R-Texas) behavior during a congressional delegation meeting in August, according to multiple sources in the administration, intelligence community and on Capitol Hill.

CIA officials raised concerns about Crenshaw’s seemingly unprofessional behavior linked to drinking and decorum in the presence of the Mexican officials, according to these sources. Crenshaw was in Mexico in August as part of his role as the chair of the House Intelligence Committee’s cartel task force. He no longer chairs that task force, which has since been disbanded.

The CIA declined to comment for the record.

The meeting also included Democratic Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.). Crenshaw took part in a toast that included crude language, which made women in the room uncomfortable, according to multiple sources.

We reported last week that Speaker Mike Johnson and House Intelligence Committee Chair Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) banned Crenshaw from taxpayer-funded congressional delegation travel for 90 days after the incident. Crenshaw also gave up his role as chair of the cartel task force.

Crawford wanted to remove Crenshaw from the Intelligence Committee, but Johnson vetoed that effort. Crawford was also aiming to strip Crenshaw of his subcommittee chairmanship overseeing defense intelligence. Crenshaw still holds that position.

A spokesman from Crenshaw sent this statement:

Johnson, who kept Crenshaw on the House Intelligence Committee against the chair’s wishes, sent a statement in support of the Texas Republican. Crenshaw had tweeted the statement Saturday evening.

— Jake Sherman and Briana Reilly

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

Can Congress actually pass Russia sanctions now?

Congress may have its best chance in months to pass hard-hitting Russia sanctions when lawmakers return from the Thanksgiving recess, as top Republicans are publicly and privately panning the Trump administration’s renewed effort to end the war in Ukraine.

A weekend of chaos and confusion over what exactly the United States is pushing for, paired with GOP criticism that the administration’s proposal is too favorable to Moscow, is testing Republican leaders’ patience after a head-spinning several months of teasing legislative action.

While the U.S. and Ukraine touted progress on Sunday after talks in Geneva, there were key differences in the two sides’ readouts. And the initial U.S. proposal caused further strain in the relationship between the two countries.

But despite Republicans’ deep skepticism of President Donald Trump’s drive toward a deal, many of the same hurdles that have blunted previous momentum for congressional action could stand in the way once again.

The bullish case. The weekend began with top Republicans, including Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), saying the White House’s peace plan rewards Russia’s aggression and short-changes Ukraine.

It also prompted Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) to announce that he’ll trigger a discharge petition to pass the House’s version of a bipartisan and long-stalled sanctions bill from Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). This bill would easily pass in the House.

Shortly thereafter, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) came out in support of the sanctions effort, vowing to advance a bill that gives Trump “maximum leverage” over Russia.

Then, at the Halifax International Security Forum, three senators from both parties said Secretary of State Marco Rubio told them by phone on Saturday that the proposed peace deal actually came from the Russians.

Rubio and a State Department spokesperson later said that the plan was authored by the U.S. — though two of the senators issued statements after the fact that did not back away from their initial characterization of Rubio’s comments.

The embarrassing episode did no favors for the White House with an already-skeptical group of lawmakers, some of whom now want to see congressional review for critical elements of a potential deal.

Not so fast. Passing a sanctions bill — or any other effort to counter Russia, for that matter — has been GOP leaders’ most elusive goal this year.

That’s because Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune have deferred to the White House, saying they don’t want to undermine Trump.

House passage of the Graham-Blumenthal bill would put pressure on Thune, who would have to decide whether to take it up. If he does, it could take several days of floor time with likely objections.

Trump has plenty of allies on this issue who won’t take kindly to a sanctions effort they see as undercutting the president.

Appearing on “Fox News Sunday,” Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) said Trump’s critics “live in this fantasy world that another round of sanctions, or another round of weapons, or another round of cash is going to solve the problem.”

— Andrew Desiderio

DEFENSE

Ernst eyes NDAA for small biz push

News: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is working to shoehorn her plan to renew two small business grant programs into the annual defense policy bill.

Ernst, who helms the Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee, has attempted to enlist the help of House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chair Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) to get the language in the final version of the NDAA. Calvert’s office did not return a request for comment.

The longshot push, detailed by two people with knowledge of the effort, has drawn the ire of leading lawmakers in the House and Senate who oversee the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and complementary Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs. The initiatives are key avenues for delivering new capabilities to the military.

“By trying to bypass other chairs and ranking members, Sen. Ernst is sidestepping the standard process for bipartisan negotiations,” House Small Business Committee Ranking Member Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.) said.

Ernst spokesman Zach Kraft said the Iowa Republican “is willing to work with anyone, anytime to reform the SBIR and STTR programs to stand up to China and actually deliver for our warfighters.”

Both programs lapsed on Sept. 30. The House previously approved a clean, one-year reauthorization, but the Senate has not taken it up over opposition from Ernst.

Ernst, meanwhile, has pitched sweeping changes to SBIR. Her bill would create a number of caps in the program that critics have argued would effectively box out longstanding participants. But supporters counter that the provisions are needed to curb the influence of businesses that repeatedly win awards but fall short of generating concrete solutions.

House Small Business Committee Chair Roger Williams (R-Texas) said he “will not rush provisions that jeopardize” the success of small businesses or weaken the programs’ “proven value.”

— Briana Reilly

…AND THERE’S MORE

Coast Guard latest: Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) is leading over a dozen Democrats in a letter asking acting Coast Guard Commandant Kevin Lunday to explain how the controversial change in hate symbol policy came to be last week.

In the letter, the Democrats ask the Coast Guard how the branch intends “to rebuild trust with Black and Jewish Coast Guard members following this series of events.”

State of anger. More than 280 state lawmakers — including 105 Republicans — have written to Congress about their fury with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s plan to preempt state artificial intelligence laws in the annual defense policy bill.

During reconciliation, MAGA governors and GOP state legislators also came out strongly against a federal moratorium, which was eventually stripped out.

Scalise’s idea faces an uphill battle to get included in the National Defense Authorization Act.

New ads: Reproductive Freedom For All, the abortion-rights group, is up with new ads targeting vulnerable House Republicans.

The digital and YouTube ads have $100,000 behind them and go after Reps. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.). The ads highlight, in part, the building of a new White House ballroom amid the Obamacare subsidy cliff.

— Max Cohen, Ben Brody and Andrew Desiderio

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