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November 29, 2022
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
News: The Biden administration has quietly begun preparing for Congress to pass a one-year stopgap funding bill, the worst possible outcome for some federal agencies – especially the Pentagon – and a political problem for Democrats and the White House.
Government funding runs out Dec. 16. That deadline could be pushed back a week until Dec. 23, as we reported in Monday’s AM edition. But at some point, Democrats are going to want to pass a funding bill that keeps the federal government open until the end of September 2023.
An omnibus would allow Democrats to put their imprint on another big federal spending bill, maybe the last one for two years as Republicans take over the House. An omnibus would also include earmarks, which Democrats revived under their watch.
But GOP and Democratic appropriators haven’t even agreed on a topline number for FY2023, the first step in the process. Appropriators would still have to draft and pass 12 appropriations bills, with an omnibus package the most likely vehicle for doing so, all while resolving dozens of policy disputes. This would take three to four weeks. That timeframe would put Congress up against the Christmas holiday and maybe even the new year if a deal is reached today. And the 118th Congress starts Jan. 3.
Faced with this situation, OMB has begun “preparing technical assistance for Congress that would minimize severe disruptions to government services in the event of a full-year CR.” On Capitol Hill, this is called preparing “anomalies” – a list of changes that need to be enacted in order to keep federal agencies operating if current spending levels are extended. In this case, for the rest of FY2023.
Here’s what a source familiar with the process told us:
As we scooped Monday AM, the Pentagon isn’t pleased with the prospect of extending the FY2022 funding levels for another year. Unlike other federal agencies, the Pentagon has never operated under a full-year CR. The two parties usually reach some bipartisan deal to boost defense dollars.
According to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, “operating under a CR moves our budget backward, not forward, reducing our topline by at least $3 billion per month below the level President Biden requested.”
Earmarks would also disappear, since they wouldn’t be included in an CR, a blow to members and senators in both parties.
Now some of this is political positioning. Senior lawmakers in both parties and the White House are raising the stakes in the fight in order to bolster their negotiating position. We expect the “Four Corners” – the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate Appropriations panels – to have some discussions this week. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the ranking Republican on the panel, badly want a deal. Both are retiring at the end of this month following long careers.
Senate Republicans, though, appear to be “slow-walking” the process past the Dec. 6 Senate runoff in Georgia, which we predicted several weeks ago could happen.
However, there’s real concern from budget and appropriations pros that the FY2023 omnibus has fallen through the cracks. The Georgia runoff, leadership challenges and big changes in the House and Senate have distracted all relevant parties. We know OMB is concerned, and there’s definitely concern at the Pentagon as well, especially since the FY2023 defense authorization bill – another “must-pass” legislation – hasn’t been completed either.
In memoriam: Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.) suddenly passed away on Monday night, his office announced. The 61-year-old McEachin had been suffering from colorectal cancer for several years. A longtime member of the state legislature, McEachin was elected to Congress in 2016. His wife Colette McEachin, a lawyer, is the Commonwealth’s attorney for the city of Richmond. The couple have three children.
The Coverage
| → | Richmond Times-Dispatch: “Congressman Donald McEachin dies at 61,” by Michael Martz |
Also: The Senate will vote this afternoon on codifying same-sex marriage into law. There will be several amendment votes and then final passage. The historic measure will pass and then go back to the House. It could end up on President Joe Biden’s desk by the end of the week.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
TODAY: Our virtual conversation with Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) about the future of democracy, voting rights reforms and much more starts at 9 a.m. ET. Tune in to watch here!
THE QUEST FOR 218
The stare down: McCarthy plans to take speaker fight to House floor
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is vowing to allies and advisers that he’ll take his quest to be the next speaker to the floor no matter how many GOP lawmakers threaten to vote against him. McCarthy won’t drop out and plans to force a floor vote – or multiple floor votes – under any circumstances, according to sources close to the California Republican.
There are 35 days until the Jan. 3 floor vote.
This kind of floor fight hasn’t happened in a century, when Rep. Frederick Gillett (R-Mass.) had to face down GOP insurgents over two days to get reelected speaker. McCarthy is hoping history doesn’t repeat itself.
Remember: In 2015, McCarthy dropped his bid to replace John Boehner as speaker before the conference vote, never coming close to forcing a roll call on the floor. This time around, McCarthy raised more than $500 million for House Republicans, spent months on the road, and brought the party to the majority – albeit by a small margin.
This aggressive strategy is aimed at trying to call the bluff of any GOP opponents and upping the pressure on them to relent. In McCarthy’s view, there’s only a handful of lawmakers saying they’ll oppose his candidacy. To the McCarthy camp, the decision on who will be the next speaker shouldn’t be dictated by the whims of a small group of lawmakers at the expense of the vast majority of the conference.
Furthermore, McCarthy allies say they have upwards of 150 lawmakers who won’t vote for anyone but the California Republican for speaker, making the dissenters task more daunting. It’s worth noting that McCarthy’s opponents haven’t rallied around another candidate for speaker. They just are opposed to McCarthy.
McCarthy’s most fervent opponents are Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Bob Good (R-Va.). Others in the anti-McCarthy camp include Reps. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas).
Biggs told a conservative podcast on Monday that there are 20 firm “no” votes against McCarthy. McCarthy’s team strongly disagrees with this assessment. But with only 222 Republican-controlled seats in the next Congress, there is little room for error.
At the same time, McCarthy warned on Newsmax that if Republicans “play games” during a floor vote, the Democrats could end up picking who the speaker is.” McCarthy is alluding to the fact that 10 or so Republicans could band with Democrats to elect a speaker of the House.
So this is a staring contest at the moment between McCarthy and conservative hardliners. And it will all come to a head in a very public way.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
SOUTH CAPITOL STREET REPORT
Who will Jeffries tap for DCCC?
As House Democrats move toward a rules change that will give their leader the power to nominate a DCCC chair, all eyes are turning to see who Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) – the presumptive Democratic leader in the next Congress – will back.
On Monday evening, the Committee on Caucus Procedures voted to favorably report a proposal to have the top House Democrat select a DCCC chair. The rule also allows any five members to nominate a candidate as well. The full caucus would have to ratify the nomination. Under the current procedure, members run for the post.
The full Democratic Caucus will vote on the changes when it meets Wednesday.
Reps. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) and Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) spearheaded this rule change. It comes after outgoing DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney lost his own reelection bid, something rank-and-file Democrats don’t want to see happen again.
The leading candidate at the moment appears to be California Rep. Ami Bera. Also in the mix is California Rep. Tony Cárdenas.
| → | In other leadership news: The only other contested leadership position is the caucus vice chair slot. The New Democrat Coalition is endorsing Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) for the post. Other contenders include Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Congressional Black Caucus Chair Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) and Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.). |
New Dems are also endorsing the DCCC appointment rules change and Rep. Susie Lee’s (D-Nev.) proposal to create a Battleground Leadership Representative position. That rules change was also favorably reported on Monday by the Committee on Caucus Procedures.
– Max Cohen
AND THERE’S MORE DRAMA …
Biden wants bill to avert rail strike passed by next Friday
President Joe Biden asked Congress Tuesday evening to send him a bill to avert a railroad strike “well before” Dec. 9.
Yes, that’s next Friday. Well before Dec. 9 would be, well, sometime between now and the middle of next week.
Biden is asking Congress to codify into law the agreement that railroad unions and management reached in September. This agreement locked in a 24% pay increase, but had just one day of paid sick leave. The unions pushed for 15 days. Since then, some leading labor unions have backed away from the agreement. Raising the possibility of a potentially calamitous strike in the middle of the holiday season.
Here are some highlights from Biden’s statement:
Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced on Tuesday night that the House would move this week to codify the agreement. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer would have to move to take up the legislation as soon as possible to prepare it for final passage next week. The Senate votes today on a same-sex marriage bill, clearing an opening for potential floor action, although there are other pressing legislative matters as well.
The Senate would need 60 votes to clear this legislation.
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY INSTAGRAM
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
| → | Former Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) has registered to lobby for Billerud Americas Corporation, a paper company, to build “support for the pulp and paper industry in the Midwest.” |
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY INSTAGRAM
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Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.