⚡️ Tally 2026: The battle for the House is on

IN THIS EDITION

Sizing up the battle for the House

How Senate Democrats could pull off the impossible

Congress braces for AI’s campaign ‘bazooka’

The Tally Power Matrix

Democrats revive 2018 health care playbook

THE TOP

Sizing up the battle for the House

Welcome to Tally 2026, our special election-focused newsletter tracking every moment of the battle for control of Congress. We’re one year out from Election Day.

In a typical midterm election, it would be easy to say Democrats were favored to take back the House.

Historically, the incumbent president’s party loses seats as voters choose divided government over one-party control. However, 2026 is shaping up to be anything but normal. And President Donald Trump is hardly a typical president.

There are always uncertainties a year out from an election. But that’s especially true this cycle with an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting scramble and a looming Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act.

So could Republicans keep their majority solely because of newly drawn maps?

“The honest answer is they could,” said Rep. Steny Hoyer (Md.), the former No. 2 House Democrat. “And that’s why they’re doing it. Because I think that’s the only way they can. I think otherwise we’ll have a 2018 election.”

Democrats had a wave in 2018 as an anti-Trump backlash propelled them to the House majority. In 2026, they’ll need just three seats to reclaim the gavel.

For now, the most likely scenario is Republicans netting between five and seven seats with new congressional lines. Democrats could overcome that and seize control of the House next year, but it gets harder as the number of battleground seats shrinks.

The redistricting calculus. Four states have already redrawn maps to favor the GOP. California voters are almost certain to pass a ballot initiative today that could give Democrats’ five new seats and help even the scoreboard.

Elsewhere, however, final maps are impossible to predict right now. Referendum campaigns, court challenges and reluctant state legislators are stymying both parties in the redistricting race.

We are trying to answer a very difficult question: how many seats do Democrats need to flip to retake the majority, under different redistricting outcomes?

To determine this, we estimated the range of seats each party could gain in redistricting.

Republicans are on track to secure a slew of new red districts in Texas, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. If they are also successful in Indiana and can beat Democrats’ referendum in Missouri, Republicans are looking at between nine and 12 new red districts.

If the Supreme Court strikes down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by early next year, Republicans can get up to another half dozen seats, bringing them to a total of 18.

Democrats will likely neutralize at least some of the GOP’s gains with new maps of their own.

Yet the number of possible pick-ups for Democrats is more limited. If they can land new maps in California and Virginia, Democrats could see five to seven new blue seats.

Democrats’ ceiling is probably no more than 10, and that’s if they can wrangle new maps in New York, Maryland and Illinois.

The final score. A worst case for Democrats is that they don’t get much more than California, and Republicans succeed nearly everywhere. In this scenario, Democrats would need to net as many as 17 seats after redistricting to win the majority. That’s tough.

But if Democrats can keep fairly even with Republicans in the redistricting wars — or catch a string of successes as the GOP hits roadblocks — then the House is firmly in play. Democrats could win it by flipping 8 to 10 seats. If Republican redistricting goes really badly, Democrats might need to flip even less.

Let’s turn to how Democrats could win those seats.

The battlefield. The number of competitive House seats shrank considerably with the post-2020 census redistricting. This latest round has made it even smaller.

In that condensed crop of battleground seats, however, Democrats are so far doing a stronger job of recruiting and fundraising. They’ve landed well-funded challengers (who raised between $300,000 and $1.2 million last quarter) in 15 GOP-held swing districts from Arizona to Michigan to Pennsylvania.

Democrats are also trying to put some long-shot seats in play with formidable recruits, in case a wave forms. For example, a Tejano music superstar is running against Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas).

One concern for Democrats: They have primaries in many of their best pickup opportunities. Plus, Democrats have a few recruiting holes, too.

In an open Detroit-area district that Rep. John James (R-Mich.) is vacating, no Democratic candidate raised more than $270,000 last quarter. Republicans, meanwhile, are close to recruiting Michael Bouchard, an Army captain from a powerful Michigan family.

And Bob Harvie, the much-ballyhooed Democrat running against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), raised just $218,000 last quarter. Fitzpatrick has nearly $7 million in cash on hand.

Still, Republican recruiting overall has been less fruitful. Several cash-rich GOP candidates are in seats that were redrawn to be more favorable for Republicans.

Beyond that, about another half-dozen Democratic seats are currently in play. Reps. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) have all landed serious challengers. Reps. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.) are fundraising poorly and could give Republicans an opening.

There’s still time for Republicans to contest more seats. But for now, their offensive map has noticeable holes.

The GOP doesn’t yet have credible or well-funded candidates to take on Reps. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Calif.), Nellie Pou (D-N.J.) or Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), three candidates in Trump-won districts.

Beyond that, Reps. Adam Gray (D-Calif.), Derek Tran (D-Calif.) and Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.) don’t have challengers who raised more than $200,000 last quarter.

– Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

SENATE MAP

How Senate Democrats could pull off the impossible

The prospect of Democrats winning back the Senate in 2026 was once a pie-in-the-sky idea. While still an uphill battle, it’s become slightly more realistic over the last few weeks.

Democrats see a glimmer of hope in their candidate-recruitment and the GOP’s bungling of health care policy. The minority party is on track to recruit enough candidates across the map to stretch Republican resources thin.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) summed up his party’s mood when he told us Democratic chances of winning the majority are “dramatically better than six months ago.”

“It’s still less than 50/50, but the directional arrow is still going north,” Kaine said.

Republicans scoff at the idea. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso told us he’s focused on “building on this Republican majority.”

The outlook: Let’s run through the best-case scenario for Democrats. There’s Michigan and Georgia, where Democrats need to protect their seats in states Trump carried last November.

Then there’s Maine and North Carolina, where Democrats need to flip GOP seats in battleground states. Democrats also need to win New Hampshire, where former Sen. John Sununu’s (R-N.H.) entrance makes the state competitive.

The taller task for Democrats is winning two additional seats in deep-red states that went to Trump in 2024. Here’s the state of play in the Democratic reach opportunities, all featuring states Trump won by double digits last fall.

Ohio (Trump +11): Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is running again after losing to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) last fall. Brown is now facing Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio). Ohio is shifting further to the right, but Brown is a monster fundraiser and has served three terms. So he will at least force Republicans to spend big in the state.

Iowa (Trump +13): Republicans view Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) as a stronger candidate than Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who is retiring. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Josh Turek is the establishment-favored candidate, but he faces primary challenges from state Sen. Zach Wahls and populist outsider Nathan Sage.

Alaska (Trump +14): Senate Majority PAC has been spending in Alaska for months now, signaling Democrats view Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) as particularly vulnerable. Their top target, former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), is inching closer to a “yes,” we’re told. Another potential shake-up: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is exploring a gubernatorial run.

Texas (Trump +14): Should Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton win the GOP primary, Democrats can dream in Texas. There are two potential strong candidates — 2024 nominee Colin Allred and progressive star James Talarico — running in the Democratic primary.

Kansas (Trump +16): Democrats could get a top recruit if redistricting causes Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) to challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). But if Davids stays put in the House, all eyes will turn to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. Kelly isn’t likely to run, though.

Nebraska (Trump +21): 2024 candidate Dan Osborn is running again, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.). There’s heavy skepticism that Osborn’s independent image can take the GOP — and Ricketts, who’s a more popular incumbent than Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) — by surprise.

Kentucky (Trump +31): We don’t think Democrats have any chance of winning Kentucky, now an open seat with Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) retirement. Still, this seat could cause Republicans to spend some if Amy McGrath raises tons of cash.

— Max Cohen, Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

POLICY PLAY

Congress braces for AI’s campaign ‘bazooka’

The largest players in artificial intelligence want to match the crypto sector’s 2024 campaign spending playbook. They’ve got a $100-million-powered super PAC waiting in the wings. Capitol Hill is nervous.

The crypto industry deployed well over $100 million in the last election, including an eye-watering $40 million to help defeat former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). The scale of that spending was unprecedented in modern politics.

The results speak for themselves. Congress has already passed one significant piece of crypto legislation — the GENIUS Act — which became law in July. And more crypto-friendly changes are in the works.

More than a year out, artificial intelligence players from OpenAI and Meta are already pledging similar amounts to what helped deliver crypto’s biggest policy asks.

“Sometimes industries need a big bazooka so they’re not being ignored,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), one of crypto’s foremost advocates on the Hill. “And that’s a big bazooka.”

The strategy. The AI and venture capital industries are betting on the Republican Congress moving quickly to establish a single set of easy-to-live-with rules that would preempt tougher state regulations.

There are actually at least two bazookas, to use Lummis’ description.

One is a network of super-PACs with more than $100 million behind them. Those super-PACs have the backing of OpenAI President Greg Brockman, the venture firm Andreessen Horowitz, Perplexity and others. They’re starting with bipartisan pro-AI candidates in states — including blue New York and California — and then ramping up to federal elections.

Meta, meanwhile, is putting millions behind a separate, state-based, bipartisan effort.

Neither has outlined who it’s trying to promote, or topple from public service.

The totals, though, would be big money, even in federal elections, let alone state races.

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) noted races in her home state are “going to be very expensive,” so tech money could have an impact.

Slotkin, a moderate who was one of the main Democratic beneficiaries of crypto money in the 2024 election cycle, warned it would be “short-sighted” if tech’s strategy involved funding Republicans only.

Not-a-fan club. Slotkin’s fellow Michigander, Sen. Gary Peters (D), who led Senate Democrats’ election efforts last cycle, doesn’t like where campaign finance trends are headed.

“I never like when industries put [a] massive amount of money into politics,” Peters said. “It’s usually never a good thing, whatever the industry is.”

Plenty of Republicans think state AI rules will cripple the industry and even hand over the future to China.

However, the GOP’s Big Tech skeptics are also unamused. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who helped successfully defeat a prior effort to preempt state AI laws, acknowledged the industry “will probably have a lot of influence,” which he said would be bad.

“Nothing they don’t want crosses that floor,” Hawley said, pointing to the doors of the Senate chamber.

– Ben Brody and Brendan Pedersen

WHO’S UP, WHO’S DOWN?

The Tally Power Matrix

— Max Cohen

2026 ROADMAP

Democrats revive 2018 health care playbook

It’s not a coincidence that Democrats made health care the centerpiece of their government shutdown messaging.

Sure, there was a timely element: the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits were set to expire.

But health care has also been a uniquely beneficial issue for Democrats in recent elections — and they’re using the 2018 election as a blueprint for next year’s midterms.

The 2018 cycle is most analogous to the current moment — a midterm election taking place two years into a Trump presidency. Democrats certainly hope that’s the case. They gained 40 House seats that year and won the majority.

At the time, Democrats tried to capitalize not only on backlash to President Donald Trump, but also on the ultimately unsuccessful GOP efforts to repeal Obamacare. Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), a former House member, chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for that cycle and sees clear parallels.

“In 2017, when Republicans tried to eliminate the Affordable Care Act and health care was front and center in this conversation, it clearly did not bode well for Republicans,” Luján told us.

Today, Luján said, health care is once again “top of mind” because of rising health care costs and the threat of expiring Obamacare subsidies.

Hopes for the House. Democrats are betting that elevating health care as part of that broader conversation will pay big dividends as they look to end the GOP’s power grip on Washington. Democrats’ likeliest path to doing so is by flipping the House.

The results of today’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey will also likely be instructive for Democrats as they evaluate the overall effectiveness of their messaging and the base’s enthusiasm.

Even before the shutdown, Democrats were already gearing up to use the Medicaid cuts in the GOP reconciliation bill as a focal point for their 2026 strategy.

“This has been a Manichean battle on health care between Democrats and Republicans,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told us. “My caucus feels very strongly about health care — we always have. From the days of when we fought for the Affordable Care Act back in 2009.”

The threat of rising health care premiums also dovetails with the party’s focus on affordability and overall cost of living. Democrats are already blaming the higher prices on the GOP by citing, in part, the economic uncertainty from Trump’s tariff regime.

GOP response. Democrats’ emphasis on the boosted Obamacare subsidies hasn’t swayed most congressional Republicans or GOP leadership. Republicans, particularly in the House, still largely oppose the enhanced tax credits. Many of them have argued that the entire debate has proven that Obamacare failed in its stated objective of keeping health care costs down.

But some Republicans are concerned about the politics of health care.

Some of the most vulnerable House and Senate Republicans have taken public stances in favor of extending the subsidies. The White House and Speaker Mike Johnson say they want a broader overhaul of the health care system to address costs, which would be very difficult to pull off.

Still, even Republicans who back a one-year extension of the enhanced subsidies say they aren’t moved by Democrats’ tactics.

“Democrats can say they’re fighting for health care, but they’re really just fighting for attention,” Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said.

The government shutdown and the criticism Democrats are getting for blocking a stopgap funding bill probably won’t be on voters’ minds a year from now when the 2026 polls open. Still, Republicans are highlighting comments from Democrats who have described the pain of a shutdown as their “leverage” in the health care fight.

You’ll recall that Republicans hammered Schumer after he told us in an interview earlier this month that “every day gets better” for Democrats.

— Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss