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IN THIS EDITION

It’s shutdown week. Johnson faces big challenges

On a border deal, it’s Johnson vs. McConnell

Young conservative strives to be part of HFC’s next generation

GOP chairs plan to issue new Hunter Biden subpoena

THE TOP

It’s shutdown week. Johnson faces big challenges

Happy Monday morning.

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day. We’ll only have one issue today, but we’re back on the regular schedule tomorrow.

Part of the federal government is set to shut down on Friday. House and Senate leaders released a stopgap funding bill Sunday night that extends the government’s spending authority until March 1 and March 8.

In unveiling the plan to House Republicans, Speaker Mike Johnson and GOP leaders made it crystal clear that they won’t touch any border security and immigration deal coming out of the Senate. Lots more on this below.

The stopgap package is meant to give appropriators more time to write spending bills to adhere to the topline deal that Johnson cut with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. That deal is effectively the Fiscal Responsibility Act with some additional cuts — $16 billion — tacked on for this fiscal year. It will be a challenge for House and Senate appropriators to draft and pass all 12 bills in the 40-something extra days this CR affords them.

This CR is otherwise pretty straightforward. It extends the shutdown deadline until March 1 for the Agriculture, Energy and Water, MilCon-VA and Transportation-HUD spending bills. Funding for the remaining federal agencies expires on March 8.

There was some grumbling during Sunday night’s House GOP call, and the House Freedom Caucus is already opposed, of course:

Here are a few dynamics we will be watching for this week.

Senate challenges: First, the funding bill will start in the Senate. Schumer has filed cloture on the legislative vehicle on which the CR will ride. That vote will happen Tuesday. Schumer will then move to substitute this CR.

If senators take up all the available time, that will extend this process into the weekend. Nodding to the tight timeline, Schumer said this in a statement Sunday evening: “To avoid a shutdown, it will take bipartisan cooperation in the Senate and the House to quickly pass the CR and send it to the President’s desk before Friday’s funding deadline.”

House challenges: We’re all aware of all the challenges in the House. Johnson spent last week huddling with hardline GOP conservatives who want him to abandon the spending deal he just made with Schumer. Johnson has been speaker for less than three months and sometimes it’s hard to discern what he’s doing. Hardliners thought he was open to abandoning the spending deal. Johnson later announced that the “topline agreement remains.”

Johnson’s challenge this week will be multifaceted.

First, the speaker has to again convince the right flank of the House Republican Conference that this delay allows him to fight for the inclusion of conservative policy riders in the annual spending bills. In reality, this is nothing more than a delay tactic because the Senate, House and White House Democrats are never going to accept any meaningful policy changes. And since Johnson needs House Democratic votes to pass the CR and avoid a shutdown, he’s at their mercy.

Here’s what Johnson said in a statement regarding the CR:

Second, Johnson has to corral a decent number of Republican votes for this CR. We expect nearly every House Democrat to vote yes. It’s a clean CR that gives Republicans nothing, so why wouldn’t they?

Johnson is going to have to bring this bill to the floor under suspension, a procedure that requires a two-thirds majority vote for passage. If every House Democrat votes yes, Johnson has to put up 77 Republican votes. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.), the dean of the House, is expected to miss the week due to a car accident over the weekend, giving Republicans a 218-213 margin.

But Johnson will want to put up closer to 110 votes, which represents half of the House Republican Conference. This will take a big push.

Looking ahead: Now, let’s project into the future a bit. President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address is scheduled for March 7, just six days after the first funding deadline and one day before the second. We’ll have to see if the SOTU will be delayed because of a government shutdown.

Many House Republicans are already insisting on border security and immigration legislation as part of the funding bill. With the Senate’s border security proposal already as good as dead, government funding bills become the main vehicle for all policy dreams.

Two more things: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said on Sunday’s call that the House is still moving forward with a contempt vote against Hunter Biden this week. We’ve got more on this below. Also: With a snowstorm expected in D.C. tonight, votes Tuesday could be canceled. We’ll stay on this.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Don’t miss: Our special edition of The Tally will go out later this morning, just in time for the Iowa caucus. Check your inboxes and our website for analysis on what the nation’s first nominating contest of this presidential election cycle will mean for the rest of 2024 and what Iowa’s congressional lawmakers think.

Events are back: Join Punchbowl News for an interview with Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) on Thursday, Feb. 29, at 9:30 a.m. ET about the news of the day and AI policy. The conversation is presented by Johns Hopkins University, and features a fireside chat with the university’s experts. RSVP!

THE BORDER

On a border deal, it’s Johnson vs. McConnell

Speaker Mike Johnson and his leadership team gave the clearest signal yet that the emerging Senate deal on border security and immigration is DOA in the House.

On a House GOP conference call Sunday night, Johnson said Congress can’t solve the crisis at the border until Donald Trump or another Republican is in the White House. And Johnson reiterated that his position is that H.R. 2 — the hardline House GOP border-security bill — is the House Republicans’ negotiating position.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise also said the Senate border deal goes in a different direction than H.R. 2 and is a non-starter in the House.

Let’s unpack this: For starters, it puts Johnson and Scalise — the top two House Republicans — on a completely different wavelength than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. As we scooped Thursday, McConnell told GOP senators during a closed-door meeting that they need to “take the deal” that Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) is negotiating with Democrats.

McConnell also explicitly said there’s no way a border deal materializes with Trump in the White House. The time for action is now, with Democrats at the negotiating table and willing to accept serious border restrictions in exchange for foreign aid.

So when it comes to the legislative strategy, Johnson and McConnell are diametrically opposed to one another.

Senate GOP leaders have been operating under the assumption — or the hope — that a big bipartisan vote with significant Republican support would put enough pressure on the House to take up the bill. That’s not going to happen now.

Remember, Johnson was at the U.S.-Mexico border with dozens of House Republicans less than two weeks ago highlighting the urgency of the migrant crisis and arguing it’s an emergency that must be addressed. His position — that the Senate pass H.R. 2, a bill that can’t clear the 60-vote threshold — ensures that nothing will get done. No Democrats voted for that measure in the House, and Senate Democrats and the White House are strongly opposed.

It also allows President Joe Biden to say that Republicans blocked Congress’ best shot in years to address the broader problems with border security and immigration reform. To be sure, the migrant crisis has been a political liability for Biden, but this move could effectively throw him a lifeline.

Here’s what a frustrated Senate GOP aide told us late last night:

The view of McConnell and most of the Senate is that the stakes are too high for Congress to fail to address the border situation. The national security challenges laid out in Biden’s initial funding request — Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan – are vital to U.S. security as well.

Perhaps most significantly, this could signal the end of the road for U.S. aid to Ukraine, a major Biden administration priority that’s shared by McConnell and a majority of lawmakers in both chambers.

And there are now serious doubts about the path for U.S. aid to Israel and Taiwan.

— Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

PRIMARY WATCH

Young conservative strives to be part of HFC’s next generation

Twenty-nine-year-old Brandon Gill could shift another seat in Congress to the right in his bid to replace retiring veteran lawmaker Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Texas).

Endorsed by former President Donald Trump, Gill has raised more than $500,000 for his election bid and more than $1.5 million through his PAC. Gill also has plenty of connections in the conservative world.

“I plan on being in the House Freedom Caucus on Day One,” Gill told us in an interview. “I think that’s what this district is looking for.”

Gill is running in a crowded primary to succeed Burgess in Texas’s deep red 26th District. More than a dozen candidates have filed to run for that seat, including Luisa Del Rosal, who formerly served as Rep. Tony Gonzales’ chief of staff.

Scott Armey, a former Denton County judge, is also in the race. Armey’s father, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, held the seat for 18 years before Burgess.

The race is likely to be a pivotal test between old-school conservative appeal versus Trump’s “America First” brand.

Gill has secured several heavyweight conservative endorsements, including Reps. Troy Nehls (R-Texas), Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and the House Freedom Fund, HFC’s campaign arm. Gill is also married to prominent conservative filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza’s daughter, Danielle D’Souza.

Gill said he wants to focus on holding Republicans accountable to conservative promises, agreeing with the tactics House hardliners have taken that have led to chaos during this Congress.

“Most people, definitely outside of Washington, would like to see some fresh faces here,” Gill said. “Oftentimes, we’ve had the same people doing the same things for a very long time and people are looking for a change. I think a new generation is helpful.”

Of course, Gill would serve as quite the shift from Burgess’s mild-mannered presence in Congress. Burgess, a doctor, has been far from a flamethrower and has kept a low profile with the media. The veteran lawmaker has primarily focused on health care policy while in office.

Burgess told us he’s not weighing in on candidates in the race and doesn’t plan on backing anyone.

“Washington should not pick our representatives. People should,” Burgess said. “There’s a lot of folks in it and I’ll have to make a decision to vote for somebody because it’s my district, but I’m not planning on endorsing.”

The Texas primary is March 5.

– Mica Soellner

GOP chairs plan to issue new Hunter Biden subpoena

Hunter Biden appears set to testify as part of the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, a major development in the marquee House Republican investigation.

The chairs of the House Oversight and Judiciary committees on Sunday said they were preparing to issue a new subpoena “in the coming weeks” to compel Hunter Biden to testify. It’s a critical pledge that seeks to satisfy an offer Hunter Biden’s lawyer made on Friday.

Hunter Biden had resisted a subpoena to testify behind closed doors for weeks, instead demanding a public hearing to avoid selective leaks. House Republicans rejected this and moved to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena.

In a bid to stave off contempt, Hunter Biden’s legal team said he would “comply for a hearing or deposition” if the House GOP issued a new subpoena.

Still with us? Good. We’ll have to see how the newfound cooperation will affect the ongoing contempt proceedings. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told GOP lawmakers on Sunday night that the House is still planning to go ahead with a contempt vote this week but that the schedule may change depending on whether a deal is reached between the two sides.

It remains unclear how much information Hunter Biden will even divulge if he testifies. It’s a distinct possibility Hunter Biden may just plead the Fifth given the number of federal tax and gun charges he’s facing.

— Max Cohen

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