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The Hegseth vibe shift

Missing: House Republican women chairing committees

The Vault: Outbound inbound? Here’s what to know

What Guthrie means for Energy and Commerce

Progressives want major DNC reforms

THE TOP

The Hegseth vibe shift

Happy Tuesday morning.

The vibes around Pete Hegseth’s nomination to lead the Defense Department have shifted during the last few days.

Buoyed by continued support from President-elect Donald Trump, the crisis atmosphere enveloping Hegseth’s nomination has cooled somewhat, although the former Army National Guard officer and Fox News host is still far from a sure thing for confirmation.

After the most prominent Senate GOP critic of Hegseth, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), signaled on Monday that she would not oppose his nomination, there’s a growing sense among Senate Republicans that Hegseth has survived a stunningly bad rollout period that threatened to completely derail his confirmation prospects.

Let’s be clear here — there’s no guarantee that Hegseth will be confirmed. Hegseth faces a potentially brutal public hearing with Democrats ready to tee off on him. Other damaging revelations beyond the devastating series of initial reports alleging sexual assault, alcohol abuse and financial mismanagement could emerge. Even his own mother raised concerns about his treatment of women. And the woman who alleged Hegseth sexually assaulted her in 2017 could go public.

But there’s a sense that Hegseth isn’t stepping aside and Trump isn’t abandoning him. So the process will move forward.

“He’s doing exactly what he needs to do,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) of the 44-year-old Hegseth. “Pete is up here every day, he’s meeting with [senators], he’s answering the tough questions, he’s not running away from them. He’s facing it.”

More Mullin: “The idea isn’t to put yes’s on the board. It’s to keep no’s off the board.”

During an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Monday night, Hegseth accused Democrats and the media of trying to destroy his nomination using “smears,” “anonymous sources” and “flat-out lies.” GOP senators also have been using the “anonymous sources” line to rebut questions on the Hegseth allegations.

“The left is trying to turn this into a trial in the media, a show trial. We’re not going to let that happen,” Hegseth said. “I’m going to walk in the door of every one of these senators as an open book, willing to answer their questions because they deserve answers.”

Hegseth was accused in October 2017 of sexual assault, although no criminal charges were filed. Hegseth has denied any wrongdoing. Hegseth later reached a financial settlement with the accuser to avoid a lawsuit.

Hegseth is scheduled to meet this week with two critically important Republicans for his nomination — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska). Their views on the DoD nominee will be very closely watched.

Here’s how Collins justified her meeting on Wednesday with Hegseth despite the allegations against him: “How else am I going to get a sense of him and ask him questions?”

The Maine Republican also said she would carefully review the FBI background report on Hegseth, as well as the nominee’s response to the questionnaire from the Senate Armed Services Committee. Collins is focused on how Hegseth handles his public questioning too.

Murkowski was more tightlipped about her Tuesday sitdown with Hegseth. She confirmed the meeting, and then said this about Hegseth: “Don’t you want to know who your accusers are?”

In addition, Hegseth will meet with GOP Sens. John Cornyn (Texas), Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.) and Steve Daines (Mont.) today.

After widespread Senate GOP opposition sank former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) bid to be attorney general, Hegseth appeared to be next in line to get dumped. By late last week, the nomination was teetering on the brink of collapse, with rumors rampant on Capitol Hill that Trump would pull the plug on Hegseth and go with another nominee, possibly Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Yet Ernst’s about-face on Hegseth is a good encapsulation of the shifting in mood among Senate Republicans around this nomination.

On paper, Ernst appears to be a tough sell for Hegseth. Ernst is a survivor of sexual assault; Hegseth is accused of sexual assault, which he denies. Ernst served in Kuwait and Iraq during the Iraq war; Hegseth has been critical of women serving in combat roles.

But after meeting Hegseth on Monday, Ernst said she’d support him through the nomination process and praised Hegseth for taking the meetings seriously.

Here’s incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune: “[SASC] is going to do the process, and we’ll ensure that he gets a fair process and that he has the opportunity to make his case. And I think that’s kind of where things lie right now.”

Trump nominees’ schedule: Trump’s pick to serve as FBI director, Kash Patel, will meet with Mullin and GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) today.

Former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s pick to head up the Office of National Intelligence, will meet with GOP Sens. Tom Cotton (Ark.) and Jim Risch (Idaho). Cotton will chair the Senate Intelligence Committee next year, while Risch will oversee the Foreign Relations Committee. Gabbard faces questions over her interactions with toppled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — who has fled to Moscow — as well as her stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Former Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Texas), who Trump wants to run the CIA, will meet with Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, on Wednesday. Other meetings include Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and GOP Sens. Mike Rounds (S.D.) and James Lankford (Okla.).

– John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

THE GAVELS

Missing: House Republican women chairing committees

House Republicans started to select their committee chairs this week. And as the top spots start to fill out, there’s one group glaringly absent from their roster: GOP women.

On Monday, Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) lost her bid for the House Foreign Affairs Committee gavel to Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.), which guarantees that no Republican women lawmakers will serve as elected committee leaders next year.

Wagner, vice chair of the Foreign Affairs panel and a former U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg, was the only woman running to chair a committee in the House. The two Republican women who currently hold committee gavels are set to vacate their posts after this Congress. House Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) is retiring, while House Education and Workforce Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) is term-limited and will give up her gavel.

Foxx, however, is seen as the front-runner to lead the House Rules Committee. But that’s a post appointed solely by Speaker Mike Johnson, not an elected position. Johnson is expected to wait until the new year to make those selections, according to a source familiar with his thinking.

At the start of the 118th Congress, retiring Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) was chair of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, but the 81-year-old stepped down from her top spot after Congress passed a government funding package in March. House GOP leaders tapped Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) to take Granger’s place.

There are 34 Republican women members in this House during this Congress, compared to 93 Democrats.

House Democrats have five women who hold the top slot on committees: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.) on Appropriations; Rep. Susan Wild (Pa.) on Ethics; Rep. Maxine Waters (Calif.) on Financial Services; Rep. Zoe Loefgren (Calif.) on Science, Space and Technology; and Rep. Nydia Velazquez (N.Y.) on the Small Business Committee.

Senate Democrats currently have five women serving as committee chairs, while Senate Republicans could have four women wielding gavels when they take over in January.

House Republicans have long struggled to elect and elevate GOP women, though they’ve made progress in recent years. Inside the House GOP leadership, a Republican woman has never served higher than the role of conference chair, the No. 4 post when Republicans hold the majority.

That job will be held by Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) next year after House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik was nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Anti-“DEI” rhetoric, or diversity, equity and inclusion, has increasingly become a rallying cry in the GOP. Last month, when asked whether Johnson may push for Wagner because of the lack of female committee chairs in the GOP, one key House Republican told us: “Our speaker would not do DEI. He would get rid of it.”

And House Republicans aren’t faring much better when it comes to promoting members of color to top spots. The top three Republican leaders will all be white men again next year, while Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Utah) is the only Black Republican running for a committee gavel.

Owens will face off against Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) on Thursday to chair the Education and Workforce Committee. If Owens wins, he’d be the first Black Republican to chair a House panel, as far as we can determine.

— Melanie Zanona and Jake Sherman

The Vault: Outbound inbound? Here’s what to know

It’s been a strange few days for lawmakers itching for a bipartisan deal to restrict outbound investment.

A Friday night deal backed by congressional leadership fell out of the annual defense authorization package posted on Saturday. At this point, we’re not sure where the effort may land in the year-end CR.

There’s been a lot of finger-pointing in the direction of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for seemingly objecting to outbound’s inclusion in the NDAA over the weekend. Some have speculated that the New York Democrat was reacting to language in the defense package restricting gender-affirming care for the children of military families. Jeffries’ aides haven’t responded to multiple requests for comment.

Others point out that Jeffries will have more leverage in CR negotiations than in the NDAA, meaning Democrats could extract a sweetener or two in exchange for Democratic votes on final passage. That’s what matters to some Republican staff we’ve spoken to this week. Dealmaking enthusiasm has been tempered by the whiplash.

But Jeffries is also under real pressure to get something done while Democrats have a bigger say.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) is pushing for an outbound deal to be in the CR. DeLauro is the ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee, so her push has more weight than most.

And remember: Republicans probably won’t have too much of a problem getting this done in the 119th Congress if the lame-duck effort falls apart.

The main obstacle to agreement on outbound investment restrictions to date has been GOP infighting, with opposition led by House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.). McHenry is retiring, and one of his likely successors — Rep. Andy Barr (Ky.) — has played a key role in crafting the Republican compromise. Incoming Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C) has also played a prominent role at the negotiating table alongside leadership.

So while Democrats may have a smidge more leverage to extract other priorities in the CR, it’s not a lot. There’s a path for outbound restrictions to get over the finish line this year — just not a wide or long one.

— Brendan Pedersen and Laura Weiss

GAVEL ’N GO

What Guthrie means for Energy and Commerce

The Energy and Commerce Committee will be Rep. Brett Guthrie’s (R-Ky.) show now.

The Steering Committee nominated Guthrie Monday evening, and the House Republican Conference vote to give him the gavel is a formality. Here’s what we expect Guthrie to do as the leader of the panel, which has jurisdiction over huge swathes of the U.S. economy.

First and foremost, Guthrie now has to hit the ground running to tee up major issues President-elect Donald Trump and Republican leaders are hoping to enact via a filibuster-proof reconciliation bill.

Guthrie told us last month he’s eager to get the GOP energy package and spectrum policies ready for reconciliation.

More broadly, Guthrie pitched his colleagues on securing the drug supply chain and doing more on the opioid crisis. Health is a huge interest of Guthrie’s. He’s been chair of the health subcommittee, and pharma and healthcare were his leading financial contributors.

On energy, the Kentucky Republican’s priorities include permitting reform and repealing EV mandates.

Guthrie has plenty of tech ideas too: Beating China to 6G, connecting more Americans to broadband and addressing Big Tech’s treatment of conservative speech. He’s talked about taking another run at overhauling privacy laws too, which failed to make it through the committee earlier this year.

The 60-year-old Guthrie will also have to decide if there are places he can move forward on artificial intelligence.

New members. Guthrie’s committee, which currently has 52 members, will be adding a lot of new faces next year.

At least seven vacancies are expected on the Republican side of the aisle between retirements and members being elected to other offices. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) would exit too if he triumphs in his bid to take over the Education and Workforce Committee.

Five members are leaving on the Democratic side.

The exact makeup of the committee will come down to future negotiations between House leaders, but it’s likely the ratio of Republicans and Democrats won’t change drastically.

Several lawmakers are interested in trying to get onto the panel: The offices of Republican Reps. Nick Langworthy (N.Y.), Laurel Lee (Fla.) and Russell Fry (S.C.) have all confirmed they’re seeking seats on Energy and Commerce.

We’ve heard Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.) wants in as well.

— Ben Brody

HOUSE DEMS

Progressives want major DNC reforms

News: Congressional Progressive Caucus leaders are calling on the DNC chair contenders to commit to major reforms aimed at improving the Democratic Party’s brand among working-class voters.

In a memo shared first with Punchbowl News, Democratic Reps. Pramila Jayapal (Wash.), Greg Casar (Texas), Maxwell Frost (Fla.) and Chris Deluzio (Pa.) demand that the DNC prohibit corporate PAC donations and “push to ban SuperPAC spending in Democratic primaries.”

The progressives are also calling on the DNC to “make rebuilding our multiracial poor and working-class base the top priority” and employ more consultants with “a demonstrated understanding of populist policies.”

Jayapal is about to finish her stint as CPC chair and Casar was recently elected as her successor. The memo is a good sense of where progressives think the party went wrong in the 2024 election.

Also: The New Democrat Coalition is holding candidate forums for the contested races for the ranking member slots on the House Oversight, Agriculture and Natural Resources Committees during the group’s lunch today.

The Congressional Black Caucus will also hold a forum for Ag committee candidates on Wednesday.

One major thing to watch: Does embattled Agriculture Committee ranking member David Scott (D-Ga.) attend?

— Max Cohen

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