The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Welcome back. The December rush is here

Inside the House Dem contests for top committee posts

Johnson’s shrinking majority: Which races are still in play?

Inside New Jersey’s right-wing shift

What we’re watching

THE TOP

Welcome back. The December rush is here

Happy Monday morning.

… And we’re back. Happy December. The Senate returns today and has votes scheduled for this evening. The House will be back in town on Tuesday.

There are 18 days until government funding expires. The new Congress will be sworn in 32 days from today. And President-elect Donald Trump will take the oath of office for the second time in just 49 days.

Congressional leaders, Trump and President Joe Biden — on a three-day trip to Africa — face immediate challenges finding a deal on a short-term government funding bill. House Republicans have been floating a mid-March end date, less than two months into Trump’s new term. This is also before the April sequester kicks in under the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act, which would lead to tens of billions of dollars in cuts to defense and non-defense spending. Both sides want to avoid that, of course.

We’ll note upfront that there’s no deal yet on a CR. But there’s also not going to be a shutdown either. Democrats have no interest in it, and Republicans want to avoid anything to derail their move toward full control of Washington once Trump is back in office. Senior Hill aides say a deal could come together this week.

Yet finding a new end date isn’t going to be easy. Trump and OMB nominee Russell Vought have promised big spending cuts next year while also extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts. The CR vote sets a new deadline for that political struggle to move into hyper speed.

The other big issue is the topline for the FY2025 spending bills. By pushing a CR, Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to avoid upsetting conservative hardliners before a floor vote for speaker in early January. But that could lead to big spending cut fights early next year. Or do Trump and top Hill Republicans try to do it all via reconciliation, despite their potentially historically thin margin of control in the House (see below)? It’s going to be an enormous challenge for Hill Republicans, however this comes together.

There are two more issues to keep in mind for the CR — the farm bill and disaster aid.

This is news: The House Republican leadership plans to attach a one-year farm bill extension to the CR. There’s a chance that the leadership will add the farm bill to the annual defense authorization bill — also a must-pass package this December — but GOP aides and lawmakers seem to be leaning toward coupling it with the CR.

The straight one-year extension is a suboptimal result for the House and Senate, given that both chambers have their own agriculture policy proposals. But clearing the legislation will give Trump and the Republicans the opportunity — and challenge — of crafting a farm bill when they have the Washington trifecta next year.

News here: Republican governors wrote House leaders today, railing against a one-year extension.

In addition, Biden has requested nearly $99 billion in disaster aid to deal with deadly hurricanes in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, as well as other catastrophes. There’s no way the full $99 billion gets approved, but even GOP senators want a vote on a standalone disaster bill.

Whatever the final amount is, it’s likely to be attached to the CR. Meaning that is going to be one complex floor vote with some really interesting political dynamics.

And let’s not forget two other storylines for this week:

Matt Gaetz. Circumstances have made it less dire, but the House Ethics Committee meets Dec. 5 to consider whether to move forward with releasing the report on former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).

Gaetz has withdrawn from consideration as Trump’s attorney general nominee, so this isn’t quite as urgent now. Yet Gaetz could be in the mix for another administration post. This means Democrats have a real interest in seeing that any report gets released. Plus, they loathe Gaetz and see hitting the former lawmaker as hitting Trump.

For their part, Republicans will argue that Gaetz is no longer under the jurisdiction of the Ethics panel and no report should be released. This already has gotten ugly; just see Democratic ranking member Susan Wild’s (Pa.) comments following the frantic last meeting of the Ethics Committee.

Kash Patel. We will be watching closely how Senate Republicans react to Trump’s selection of Kash Patel to lead the FBI. This is a controversial nomination that will tell us how willing Republicans actually are to take down a nominee. In this case, a conspiracy theorist whose stated goal is to “clean up” the FBI while also threatening to go after the media.

One more thing: Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who will take over as majority whip in the next Congress, has named Dan Kunsman as his chief of staff for the whip office. Kunsman has served as Barrasso’s chief of staff since 2010 and is his top adviser.

“Asking Dan Kunsman to lead the Whip office is an easy decision,” Barrasso said in a statement. “He has steered me in the right direction since my time in the Wyoming State Senate. Dan has served Wyoming’s elected leaders selflessly for many years, including as my Chief of Staff.”

Kate Noyes will serve as communications director for the whip office. Noyes is currently communications director for the Senate Republican Conference, which Barrasso leads.

– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

NEW POWER PLAYERS: Join us tomorrow at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Sens.-elect John Curtis (R-Utah) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). We’re discussing the news of the day and bipartisanship in the lame-duck session and the new Congress. You can still RSVP here!

THE POWER

Inside the House Dem contests for top committee posts

Maryland Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin may launch a bid to become ranking member on the House Judiciary Committee this week, setting up a challenge against longtime Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler (N.Y.).

It’s one of several contests among House Democrats for top committee posts, part of the fallout from the Nov. 5 elections. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) is challenging Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) for ranking member of the Natural Resources Committee. On the Agriculture Committee, Reps. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and Angie Craig (D-Minn.) are looking to supplant the ailing, 79-year-old Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), who has long drawn concern over his ability to handle the post.

If Raskin challenges Nadler — which we scooped for you back on Nov. 21 — he stands a good chance of winning. That would set off a succession struggle atop the Oversight Committee that could lead to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) emerging as the ranking member, depending on who gets into that race.

House Democrats’ Steering and Policy Committee is likely to organize this week, we’re told. The ranking members for the “exclusive committees” — Appropriations, Energy and Commerce, Financial Services and Ways and Means — would then be approved. That’s Democratic Reps. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), Frank Pallone (N.J.), Maxine Waters (Calif.) and Richie Neal (Mass.) respectively, all four of whom are expected to be reupped by acclamation.

Final decisions on the contested committees would then be pushed to next week.

Raskin has refused to say what his plans are yet, but he didn’t rule out a challenge to the 77-year-old Nadler during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.

“We’re just getting back into that now as we form the Steering and Policy Committee,” Raskin told guest host Kasie Hunt. “So I’m not ruling anything out at this point. And we’re engaged in conversations, all with the purpose of creating a strategic focus and capacity within the Democratic members of the House, so that we’re going to be a really effective and muscular opposition.”

For his part, Nadler said he is “ready, willing and able to take on Donald Trump and House Republicans.” Nadler spent the weekend making calls to his Democratic colleagues, we’re told.

The House Judiciary Committee — chaired by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) — will find itself in the middle of expected fights over immigration, trade, abortion and other Trump-related issues. Nadler is seen by some of his colleagues as not up to the task, while Raskin is one of the most effective messengers and public speakers in the caucus.

But Nadler has allies, and he and Raskin are personally close, which has made this a difficult situation for the Maryland Democrat. A number of top Democrats, though, privately are in favor of a switch.

The Oversight post is one to watch if Raskin takes the Judiciary spot. AOC, as well as Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), are all in the mix as potential Raskin successors. AOC — just in her third term — would be viewed as a strong choice by many Democrats.

The House Republican Steering Committee will meet just once this week — Dec. 3 at 3 p.m. — to consider Rep. Sam Graves’ (R-Mo.) request for a waiver to continue serving as the chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. The steering committee has turned sharply against granting waivers for lawmakers to circumvent the six-year term limit.

The GOP steering panel will move to the contested gavel battles next week.

– John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

THE HOUSE

Johnson’s shrinking majority: Which races are still in play?

Speaker Mike Johnson spent all campaign season vowing that Republicans would grow their numbers in the House. But the House GOP majority could shrink to as little as one seat in January, as tight as it can possibly get and still remain in Republican control.

Two years ago, Republicans won 222 House seats. The most the GOP can win this time around is 221.

The only uncalled House race in the country is in California’s 13th District, where Democrat Adam Gray leads Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) by 190 votes. Per California law, county election officials must finalize the final results by Dec. 5. Eight days later, the California secretary of state will certify the results.

There are no automatic recounts in California, so one of the campaigns must request a recount.

Last week, the Associated Press called Iowa’s 1st District for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) and California’s 45th District for Democrat Derek Tran. Tran’s win marked another blue flip in Southern California and unseated Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.).

With the California 13th District race still undecided, Republicans control 220 seats and Democrats have won 214. Now comes the tricky part — Republicans are set to lose as many as three members next month as members leave office or head to the incoming Trump administration.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has announced he will retire and won’t serve in the 119th Congress. Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) will serve as President-elect Donald Trump’s national security adviser. Waltz is expected to resign on Jan. 20, after Trump is sworn in.

Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has already set special elections on April 1 for both the Gaetz and Waltz seats.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is set to become the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul will set a special election date after Stefanik leaves office.

So Republicans will either control 217 or 218 seats in the opening months of 2025, depending on whether Duarte can pull off a late turnaround.

And remember, a tie vote in the House loses. So Republicans will have the tightest possible margin possible for a couple months. Any single member can swing a vote if all the Democrats show up.

– Max Cohen and John Bresnahan

GARDEN STATE

Inside New Jersey’s right-wing shift

The fact that New Jersey is dominating the political conversation weeks after the election is bad news for Democrats. After President-elect Donald Trump improved his showing by 10 points in four years, GOP gains in deep-blue turf are forcing Garden State Democrats to grapple with an erosion of working-class support.

Democrats are blaming inflation and a global anti-incumbency backlash for their struggles. Republicans are newly emboldened by what they see as a radical realignment among traditionally Democratic voters.

By the numbers: Vice President Kamala Harris won New Jersey by just six points (the same margin as in New Mexico), whereas President Joe Biden won by 16 points in 2020. A New Jersey Globe breakdown of the state’s 9th District showed how the plurality-Latino seat swung from backing Biden by 19 points to voting for Trump by one point this cycle.

Democratic explanation: Sen.-elect Andy Kim (D-N.J.) told us there’s a prevailing sense of “frustration” among voters, egged on by high costs and “really shitty public transit challenges.”

Hanging over all of the voter anger, according to Kim, are deep-lying trust issues.

“I’m here in the U.S. Senate in part because of a corruption scandal that has no doubt had impacts on the Democratic Party brand,” Kim said, referring to former Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-N.J.) conviction on corruption and bribery charges.

Sen. George Helmy (D-N.J.), a former top gubernatorial aide appointed to fill Menendez’s seat, blamed Democratic messaging problems.

“I think the party of the working people, which is the Democratic Party, needs to just do a better job of getting the message to the working people,” Helmy added.

Just take a look at Rep. Josh Gottheimer’s (D-N.J.) omnipresent “lower taxes” messaging in his gubernatorial bid for a sense of which way Democrats think the political winds are shifting.

GOP optimism: Many scoffed when Trump held a May rally in Wildwood, N.J., that attracted tens of thousands of supporters. But Trump’s focus on New Jersey may have paid off by energizing voters in a way Democrats never did in the state.

In a triumphant post-election call with House Republicans, Conference Chair Elise Stefanik declared New Jersey was now “a swing state.”

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), a Democrat-turned-Republican, said Republican gains were due to “a lot of hard-working people getting tired of corporate taxes.”

Van Drew singled out increases in GOP support from “people of color, Hispanics, blue-collar workers, union workers” in a shift that could mark “a new time for New Jersey.”

“Nobody on the ground thought we would hold it to five points,” Van Drew said. “Usually in New Jersey in a presidential year, you’ll lose by 15 to 20.”

— Max Cohen

📆

What we’re watching

Tuesday: The Senate Intelligence Committee will get a closed briefing at 2:30 p.m. The House Rules Committee will meet to prepare a pair of bills for floor consideration.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), the incoming GOP policy chair, will host a policy retreat for Senate Republicans at the Library of Congress. Budget reconciliation is on the agenda.

In the morning, Senate Democrats will meet behind closed doors for their leadership elections.

Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee has a hearing about how technology is shaping the future of finance. The House Judiciary Committee has a hearing to probe U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

Thursday: The special committee investigating the attempted assassination of Donald Trump has its final hearing.

Ronald Rowe, acting director of the Secret Service, will be the sole witness for the hearing. The task force will also then mark up its report following the hearing.

Some news: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) will convene the first meeting of the newly formed Senate DOGE Caucus with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy on Thursday. Musk and Ramaswamy will also attend a meeting with all House and Senate Republicans.

Ernst is the chair of the DOGE Caucus and recently met with Musk, Ramaswamy and Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Mica Soellner

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