The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

China hawks, big biz tensions will shape tech agenda

What’s really likely to happen on Tech

Mapping the AI lobby

Members to watch on key tech issues

THE TOP

China hawks, big biz tensions will shape tech agenda

Happy Wednesday morning.

Welcome to a special edition of our newly launched Tech coverage! We’re here to give you all the news you need to know about tech policy in Washington.

In this edition, we dive into the debates that will dominate the agenda this year. We also break down the lawmakers, administration officials and industry players who will be key to what does — and doesn’t — get done.

It promises to be a busy year for tech policy. We’re thrilled to serve as your guide.

If you’re interested in getting more of our tech coverage, you can sign up here to become a Premium Policy member.

Now, let’s get into our special edition…

President Donald Trump has a lot on his domestic policy plate for the short and medium term: confirmation battles, executive orders and the whole tax-border-energy bill agenda to coordinate with Hill allies.

When it comes to tech policy, the emerging theme that will shape so much policy is the tension over two, at times, competing priorities: cracking down on China and giving emerging technologies leeway to flourish.

“It’s going to be a difficult dance,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told us. He cited his own efforts to restrict outbound U.S. investment in China as an example.

A compromise on outbound investment fell short of making it into end-of-year bills in the last Congress. Republican foreign policy leaders wanted to restrict a wide array of tech investments, while GOP lawmakers sympathetic to industry concerns wanted a more targeted approach.

“You have people sort of in both camps,” Cornyn said. “We all pledge allegiance to the Constitution of the United States and this is where our loyalty lies, and I would hope that that remains paramount.”

How Republican-controlled Washington navigates the warnings of China hawks and the desires of tech enthusiasts will be key to what does and doesn’t get done in Trump’s Washington on tech policy.

Let’s break it down.

Foreign Commerce: Tech’s role in trade and export controls promises to be a flashpoint.

In the waning days of President Joe Biden’s term, his administration issued a rule to expand export controls on the most advanced semiconductors. Some Republican China hawks loved it, but others, like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), were outraged at the scope of the policy.

Cruz, who is debating trying to use Congress’ power to rescind last-minute regulations, epitomizes the split. He’s long favored tough-on-China stances, but he’s also the new chair of the Senate Commerce Committee. In other words, he’s got a lot of business interests under his jurisdiction.

Other GOP lawmakers have suggested their affinity for both sides of the debate. It’s a reminder there aren’t necessarily fixed groups, with hawks on one side and an opposing camp that wants an easier playing field for business.

Rather, Republicans move between the two poles. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), a key member of the Senate’s artificial intelligence working group, said he was torn on the Biden administration’s AI chips rule.

Here’s what Rounds told us:

Or take TikTok. The app is currently operating in legal limbo thanks to Trump’s own sometimes-contradicting stances on how to best confront China versus attending to the worries of the business community. Under a law passed last year by wide bipartisan margins, TikTok was supposed to face a ban from U.S. app stores on Jan. 19 since it’s still owned by a Chinese company.

Trump, who loves how popular he is on the app, hinted he’d save it by invoking a reprieve that’s available under the divestment law. Many Republican China hawks objected to this idea.

Instead, Trump issued an executive order that provides 75 days for him to examine a way to save the app while promising his Justice Department will not go after companies that don’t comply with the law. It’s unclear if this approach will hold up against legal challenges.

The sweet spot: The House, in particular, has sometimes managed to bring the camps together.

Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio) pointed out the original TikTok law was popular among all kinds of Republicans. Latta said it showed how Republicans — and GOP-led committees in particular — worked together on national security and economic concerns.

“I think that we’ll have good relations with our committees here,” said Latta, who helped get the TikTok bill through the Energy and Commerce Committee. “We all have the same goal in mind. So I really believe that it won’t be really a problem.”

Latta also previewed that Republicans will have to tackle some of these issues to address network security this year.

“We know what happened with Huawei and ZTE,” he said, referring to Chinese companies that made cheap telecom gear that is now ubiquitous in U.S. networks and are subject to replacement efforts. “We don’t want to have technology out there that comes from Communist China, which is truly an adversary.”

— Ben Brody

THE AGENDA

What’s really likely to happen on Tech

Republican control of both the White House and Congress means the next two years could mark a sea change in tech policy with much more being done than has been the norm in recent years or, really, recent decades.

That being said, nothing is ever easy in the Capitol, and nothing is ever guaranteed in President Donald Trump’s Washington. In particular, Speaker Mike Johnson’s razor-thin majority means House leadership can’t push every priority through.

Here’s where we expect the Hill to make headway on tech policy and where getting something done remains a long shot.

Easy: The TAKE IT DOWN Act was Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) bipartisan bill to tackle nonconsensual explicit images, both those that are real and those created via artificial intelligence. We were first to tell you Cruz, now Senate Commerce Committee chair, reintroduced that bill last week.

The measure would criminalize the spreading of such images and force online platforms to create a way to get the pictures and videos taken down. The bill cleared the Senate handily late last year, but it didn’t cross the finish line. It was included in the initial version of the year-end continuing resolution but fell out when congressional Republicans had to slim down the measure under pressure from Trump and Elon Musk.

It’s still a bipartisan proposal that leadership has vetted (despite some concerns from civil liberties groups). Cruz told us it’s a priority.

More measures on similar issues — the DEFIANCE Act and the SHIELD Act — made it pretty far last year as well.

Doable: Digital protection for young users took up a lot of the oxygen last Congress. Johnson and House GOP leadership had concerns about how the Kids Online Safety Act, which would regulate social media design, would affect free speech.

Musk helped the Senate sponsors develop a new version, and Donald Trump Jr. got behind the idea. KOSA has clear political oomph, enough so that Johnson had to say he wants to get to “yes” this year.

Still, free speech concerns can be hard to overcome, and Republican leaders had other worries.

Renewing the Federal Communications Commission’s authority to auction electromagnetic spectrum is a priority for House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) and Cruz. This proposal is being pushed as part of the filibuster-proof reconciliation bill, or bills, that Congress wants to move quickly to enact key parts of Trump’s agenda. It would raise money for the government, which would help offset the cost of pricier policies.

But there will be challenges from Republicans who are closely aligned with the Pentagon. The Defense Department has control of a lot of mid-band spectrum, which carriers say is the sweet spot to boost 5G service, and it doesn’t want to give it away easily.

Sens. Mike Rounds (S.D.) and Deb Fischer (Neb.) will be key Republicans to watch during these negotiations as they have historically aligned with the DoD’s position.

Difficult: Comprehensive online privacy — for all users — has been eluding lawmakers for years, arguably even decades. Cruz told us he has no interest in the draft that circulated last Congress.

Starting from scratch will take time and political will — both of which are not in abundance right now.

Tougher than a burnt steak: Republicans want nothing to do with comprehensive AI safety rules right now.

— Ben Brody and Diego Areas Munhoz

FEELING AI-RIGHT

Mapping the AI lobby

President Donald Trump and his new administration are going to be on the receiving end of a lot of lobbying on artificial intelligence. Tech companies, trade associations and multi-client lobbying firms will all be very active in practicing the arts of the influence industry.

But there isn’t, really, one single AI lobby. Big and Little Tech are competing against one another, as are purveyors of open- and closed-source models. Still, there are going to be clear power players and places where the industry will be pulling together.

Here’s who’s going to be doing the talking on AI:

Companies: The armies of traditional Big Tech lobbyists have already spent the last few years pivoting to AI issues. Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta are all making big plays — and most of their leaders snagged plum seats at the inauguration Monday to show off their power. By sheer numbers, Big Tech is pretty much guaranteed to be at the front of the AI lobbying pack — and lobbying spending — for a while.

There are new players in town, though. OpenAI has been on a hiring spree. The company’s policy operation is headed by D.C. veteran Chris Lehane.

OpenAI also recently unveiled its first policy priorities, with an emphasis for the Trump administration — export controls that focus on adversaries while leaving things pretty free with allies. The company also highlighted boosting energy production and kids’ protection. CEO Sam Altman will be in town next week to walk Washington through the document.

But don’t sleep on a16z, the venture capital firm also known as Andreessen Horowitz. We’ve told you about their Washington staff-up, which especially focuses on their AI and crypto portfolios. The policy team works hard to speak for “Little Tech.” General partner Marc Andreessen has also become a prominent Trump supporter.

Trade groups: With China, trade and even procurement as top issues, the Information Technology Industry Council is poised for an important lobbying role. The group specializes in those topics, though it was sleepier in recent years when issues like competition were hotter.

The Business Software Alliance also has the benefit of the most undiluted focus on companies selling AI to other businesses in its membership. Key members include Microsoft, Oracle and IBM — all of which are known as veteran D.C. game-players.

Consultants: Top multi-client lobbying firms that are allied with Trump will be players in the AI policy influence space as well. Miller Strategies, for instance, is headed by GOP mega-lobbyist and Trump fundraiser Jeff Miller. Its clients include OpenAI and Oracle.

— Ben Brody

WHO’S WHO

Members to watch on key tech issues

As Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) know all too well, we at Punchbowl News Tech stay quite close to the leaders of the Senate Commerce and House Energy and Commerce committees.

But those two chairs aren’t the only lawmakers involved in tech policy.

Here are a few members we’ll be keeping an eye on (and seek answers from frequently):

– Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), as the chair of E&C’s Communications and Technology subcommittee, will have a lot of say over all things telecom, privacy, data, cybersecurity and Section 230. He’ll be a key figure in negotiations over renewing the FCC’s spectrum auction authority. His panel’s first hearing, on wireless, takes place tomorrow.

Hudson is also chairing the House GOP’s campaign arm again, giving him more leverage than your average subcommittee chair.

– Reps. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) are chair and ranking member of the House’s China committee. As competition with Beijing becomes an even more important issue in tech policy, Moolenaar and Krishnamoorthi will take an outsized role.

The two are relatively in sync too, despite being from opposite sides of the aisle. That rare bit of bipartisanship gives them a little more heft. But Moolenaar will have to deal with Donald Trump’s meandering approach to TikTok and any other tension points over China when it comes to the new president’s relationship with congressional Republicans.

– Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) isn’t a chair, but he’s become a key voice for — you guessed it — China competition. He has an independent streak and was also one of the key figures behind the CHIPS and Science Act as well as a member of the Senate’s AI working group. We expect him to keep talking about funding CHIPS priorities and basic research in other areas concerning the tech of the future.

– Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) was a member of the bipartisan AI working group too. This year he’ll also be the ranking member on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Given comprehensive energy permitting reform will likely have to come through bipartisan legislation, he will be an important player in those negotiations. As we’ve been reporting, the power demand of AI will be a key aspect of energy and tech policy for the years to come.

— Ben Brody and Diego Areas Munhoz