It’s been a strange few days for lawmakers itching for a bipartisan deal to restrict outbound investment.
A Friday night deal backed by congressional leadership fell out of the annual defense authorization package posted on Saturday. At this point, we’re not sure where the effort may land in the year-end CR.
There’s been a lot of finger-pointing in the direction of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for seemingly objecting to outbound’s inclusion in the NDAA over the weekend. Some have speculated that the New York Democrat was reacting to language in the defense package restricting gender-affirming care for the children of military families. Jeffries’ aides haven’t responded to multiple requests for comment.
Others point out that Jeffries will have more leverage in CR negotiations than in the NDAA, meaning Democrats could extract a sweetener or two in exchange for Democratic votes on final passage. That’s what matters to some Republican staff we’ve spoken to this week. Dealmaking enthusiasm has been tempered by the whiplash.
But Jeffries is also under real pressure to get something done while Democrats have a bigger say.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) is pushing for an outbound deal to be in the CR. DeLauro is the ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee, so her push has more weight than most.
And remember: Republicans probably won’t have too much of a problem getting this done in the 119th Congress if the lame-duck effort falls apart.
The main obstacle to agreement on outbound investment restrictions to date has been GOP infighting, with opposition led by House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.). McHenry is retiring, and one of his likely successors — Rep. Andy Barr (Ky.) — has played a key role in crafting the Republican compromise. Incoming Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C) has also played a prominent role at the negotiating table alongside leadership.
So while Democrats may have a smidge more leverage to extract other priorities in the CR, it’s not a lot. There’s a path for outbound restrictions to get over the finish line this year — just not a wide or long one.
