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IN THIS EDITION

Inside the warring Senate GOP

The tax bill is out. And House GOP leadership is in a tough spot.

HFC rallies behind Good in tough primary

Rosendale preps for Senate launch

THE TOP

Inside the warring Senate GOP

Happy Wednesday morning.

The Senate Republican Conference is starting to sound like their House GOP counterparts — a complete mess.

Private Senate GOP meetings have devolved into testy exchanges over immigration, Donald Trump and Ukraine, including Tuesday’s closed policy lunch.

Some GOP senators openly called out Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell during that session, questioning whether the Kentucky Republican is using a tentative immigration and border security package as an end run with Democrats to help push through more money for Ukraine. Republicans will hold another private meeting focusing just on Ukraine today.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who led calls for the discussion about Ukraine, argued that Republicans “haven’t really talked about this at all.”

Johnson — a McConnell critic — bizarrely claimed earlier this week that McConnell “couldn’t negotiate his way out of a paper bag,” which we pointed out has never, ever been said about the Kentucky Republican before. Other stuff, yes. But not that.

Inside the room: At Tuesday’s lunch, McConnell pushed back on the Ukraine criticism, pointing out that his Republican colleagues have talked for months about the war with Russia and what the U.S. should do to help. McConnell has been Ukraine’s most vocal defender on Capitol Hill during the fall and into early 2024, even as opposition has grown among Hill Republicans on new aid for the embattled U.S. ally.

Yet McConnell’s hold on the Senate GOP Conference isn’t what it was. McConnell faced an unsuccessful challenge to his leadership following the 2022 elections. And McConnell’s repeated health problems last year led some Republicans to suggest he should be replaced by one of the “Three Johns” — Senate Minority Whip John Thune, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) or Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). McConnell’s health has improved markedly in recent months.

But Trump’s growing strength in the GOP presidential race is another concern for McConnell, especially after Tuesday night’s win in New Hampshire. Trump and the 81-year-old McConnell — the longest-serving party leader in Senate history — have a bleak relationship. McConnell committed the ultimate sin of acknowledging Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. Trump countered by urging Republicans to replace McConnell, but the Senate Republican Conference ignored that. It will become tougher to ignore Trump’s missives as the year unfolds, however.

Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) — who has called himself “deeply skeptical” of the tentative border security package — also clashed loudly during Tuesday’s lunch, senators told us.

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) briefed his fellow Republicans on the status of the bipartisan talks over immigration and border security he’s holding with Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.). Lankford offered few details before telling them that a bill wouldn’t be ready this week.

A “testy” Lankford complained that he hadn’t asked for the assignment but had been drafted into it, according to three senators who were at the lunch.

“Everybody wants to be able to go through it and to say ‘We’ve got all these questions, when can we see it?’” Lankford said following the closed-door session. Lankford remains hopeful that the text of the proposal can be released this week despite ongoing problems with parole provisions and funding levels.

At one point during the lunch, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) suggested that senators may need several weeks to go through any proposal before the Senate begins floor action. Lee plans to offer a resolution today in the GOP Ukraine meeting opposing cloture “on any supplemental spending bill containing border provisions without adequate time to offer and vote on floor amendments.” Remember that McConnell has urged quick passage of the measure.

Yet the growing chorus of complaints from hardline conservatives about the still-unreleased Murphy-Lankford-Sinema proposal may actually turn the politics of this issue on its head.

Republicans have made the migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border into the biggest political issue in the country, according to recent polls.

But with Biden and Hill Democrats now agreeing to major concessions sought by GOP leaders, opposition to a deal from hardline conservatives could help stymie efforts to pass a proposal to address the crisis. This could play into Biden’s hands — Democrats sought a solution to the issue, yet Republicans wouldn’t agree to any compromise. This is what Senate Republican leaders have been warning privately for weeks, especially to those GOP lawmakers up for reelection in 2024.

Department of Falling in Line. Trump won the New Hampshire primary Tuesday night. And, quite predictably, a handful of Senate Republican holdouts are now rallying around him.

Last night alone, Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) and Cornyn both endorsed Trump.

Cornyn’s statement started out like this: “To beat Biden, Republicans need to unite around a single candidate, and it’s clear that President Trump is Republican voters’ choice.”

This will make for an interesting dynamic in the Senate Republican Conference.

McConnell, of course, hasn’t endorsed Trump and seems barely interested in saying his name. Thune likewise is holding out still. Trump threatened to try to primary Thune last election cycle. However, Thune won his primary by 52 percentage points and reelection by 43 percentage points. Thune had endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) in the presidential race. Scott, though, is now backing Trump.

Barrasso, who publicly backed Trump two weeks ago, called him “our presumptive nominee for President of the United States” following Tuesday’s win in the Granite State.

— John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

The tax bill is out. And House GOP leadership is in a tough spot.

At about 8 p.m. Tuesday night, the House Republican leadership posted the much-anticipated tax bill negotiated by House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.).

We’ve covered this bill for a while now, but the gist of it is this: It extends a whole host of business tax breaks and expands the child tax credit with a focus on lower-income families. It’s also got some other measures including affordable housing incentives and disaster tax relief.

In usual times, a bill like this could be a slam dunk for House Republican leaders, though it’s worth noting that tax legislation is always somewhat trickier on its own. Still, it was approved by the Ways and Means Committee 40-3.

Yet House Republican leadership has struggled a bit with how to handle the bill.

What you need to know: The plan, as of now, is for the House Republicans to put the bill on the floor next week under suspension of the rules, a fast-track procedure that requires a two-thirds majority for passage. That’s why the House GOP leadership noticed the bill late Tuesday night; they need to give five days for bills considered as part of the suspension calendar.

GOP leaders will want to use suspension of the rules for a couple of reasons:

1) The House Rules Committee includes several hardline conservatives, which makes reporting a rule out of the committee nearly impossible.

2) Speaker Mike Johnson also has a SALT problem. Some New York Republicans will take down any rule that doesn’t include the ability for them to try to roll back the Trump-era limits on the state and local tax deduction.

If GOP leadership gave New York GOPers a vote on rolling back the SALT limits, it could pass, imperiling the final passage of the bill.

So Johnson and his leadership team will have to work this week and next to mollify New York lawmakers and other blue state Republicans whose constituents have been hit very hard by the $10,000 SALT limit.

To be fair, GOP leaders often force blue-state Republicans to vote on all sorts of measures that could imperil their reelection. So this will be familiar territory for all involved. Let’s see if New York Republicans do anything but bellyache.

There will be some hardline conservatives who complain about moving a massive tax bill through the fast-track suspension process, as well.

Some key members of the Senate GOP have also been critical of parts of the tax package and held off on backing it publicly. The uncertainty on the Senate side — where Republican votes would be crucial for this to pass — doesn’t make the House’s decision-making any easier.

We do expect plenty of outside pressure to get this done. It’s a huge priority for businesses, and it’s also drawn support from groups that back expanding the child tax credit and aiding lower-income families.

— Jake Sherman and Laura Weiss

PRIMARY WATCH

HFC rallies behind Good in tough primary

Between a top campaign adviser to former President Donald Trump, an angry House GOP Conference and now Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) has made a lot of enemies.

But Good’s far-right allies in the HFC are lining up to help him beat back a primary challenge from state Sen. John McGuire. Several HFC members said they’d host fundraisers or send maximum donations to Good’s campaign to keep him in Congress.

“If there’s anyone that knows how to win in difficult circumstances, it’ll be Bob Good,” said Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who preceded Good as HFC chair. “He’s a good member and his votes are great. Why wouldn’t we help him?”

In fact, there’s little evidence Good knows how to win a tough race. In 2020, the Congressional Leadership Fund spent $1.8 million and the NRCC spent nearly $1.3 million to help Good beat Democrat Cameron Webb, a physician who ran against him.

But now Republicans in leadership believe Good is in real danger of losing his seat.

Trump World turned its ire on Good after the Virginia Republican endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over the former president. Once DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race over the weekend, Good quickly endorsed Trump.

That hasn’t stopped McGuire’s camp from painting Good as an anti-Trumper. McGuire is also slamming Good as a fake conservative who votes more with Democrats than Republicans. This is a pretty big stretch given Good is one of the most conservative members of the House.

“Bob will stab Trump in the back again the first chance he gets. Never Trumper Bob Good is only good for Joe Biden, not for the patriots of Virginia’s 5th Congressional District,” McGuire told us in a statement.

McGuire has also attacked Good for helping to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Good dismissed McGuire’s challenge, adding that his Freedom Caucus allies will be “100%” behind him.

“The people in the 5th District of Virginia like what I’m doing. I’ve kept my word. I’ve been the kind of consistent conservative that they elected me to be,” Good said in an interview.

Good’s confidence, however, hasn’t stopped him from asking for some early help behind the scenes.

Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) said Good reached out to him a few weeks ago to host a fundraiser. The two held a campaign event in Jetersville, Va., on Jan. 13.

Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said they’d also go to Good’s district if he asked them. Norman also contributed to Good’s campaign.

“I’ll do whatever it takes to help Bob Good,” Norman told us. “Any fundraiser, we’ll step up.”

The flip side: McGuire is gaining support from members of the GOP conference who are angry at Good for ousting McCarthy and continuing to obstruct the legislative process.

Greene endorsed McGuire on Monday, after going on a tirade that Good is an “angry, disloyal, MAGA traitor.” The Georgia Republican was booted out of HFC last year.

Republican Reps. Morgan Luttrell (Texas), Derrick Van Orden (Wis.) and Ryan Zinke (Mont.) have also endorsed McGuire. All four men were Navy SEALs. Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) has not formally endorsed McGuire but has donated to his campaign.

Van Orden said he is backing McGuire because Good’s tactics have helped lead to chaos within the House Republican Conference.

“In order to fix something, you can’t just burn it down,” Van Orden told us. “This guy has been throwing bombs around, and look at what we’ve accomplished. The answer is nothing.”

– Mica Soellner

CONSERVATIVE CORNER

Rosendale preps for Senate launch

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) has been making calls to House conservatives asking for money for a future Senate run, per multiple GOP lawmakers and Republican insiders. The filing deadline is less than two months away.

Rosendale has also been dialing up vendors for campaign materials and eyeing potential staff hires, sources said.

One Freedom Caucus member told us they already donated to Rosendale. The contribution goes to Rosendale’s House campaign, which can then be used for a Senate race if Rosendale jumps into that race.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) confirmed Rosendale reached out to him, but he has not yet donated. Norman told us he plans to support Rosendale.

Rosendale is a vocal member of the House Freedom Caucus and is one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

But Senate GOP leaders are strongly opposed to Rosendale’s potential candidacy, seeing as how he already lost to Democrat Jon Tester in 2018. Senate Republican leaders and the NRSC have thrown their support to Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and wealthy business executive.

Here’s Aashka Varma, Rosendale’s deputy chief of staff:

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) will be in Bozeman, Mont., on Friday for a rally with Rosendale, according to the Daily Caller.

— Mica Soellner and John Bresnahan

THE CAMPAIGN

Calvert’s haul: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) raised $780,000 in the last quarter of 2023, bringing his total yearly haul to $3.5 million. Calvert has $2.5 million on hand.

Calvert is facing a vigorous challenge from Democrat Will Rollins, who outraised Calvert in Q4 with a massive $1 million tally. But Calvert’s yearly haul is $700,000 more than Rollins’.

In any event, the cash that will be poured into the Calvert-Rollins rematch will be staggering. Remember, this is a top target for Democrats, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was fundraising with Rollins this week.

Blackburn backs Moreno: Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) is endorsing Bernie Moreno in the Ohio Senate primary. Blackburn is the latest top Republican to line up behind Moreno’s bid to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). Former President Donald Trump notably backed Moreno last month.

“Bernie is a true conservative, and I am confident that he will fiercely defend the American values that make our country so special,” Blackburn said in an endorsement statement.

Deluzio’s war chest: Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.), a vulnerable Democrat in a competitive seat, will formally kick off his reelection campaign tonight with a speech at a local union hall. Deluzio will announce he is sitting on a war chest of over $1 million split between his campaign and victory fund coffers.

The Pennsylvania Democrat won an open seat last cycle by running a populist campaign. True to form, Deluzio will say at his campaign launch today that he’s “proud that corporate jagoffs like the Kochs, Big Pharma and powerful railroads want me gone.”

Pennsylvania Republicans are coalescing around GOP state Rep. Rob Mercuri as their candidate to take on Deluzio.

— Max Cohen

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