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IN THIS EDITION

Congress races to the finish – sorta

Gardner to chair SLF, ushering in Thune era for the super PAC

Kentucky, Missouri eye House gavel dominance

Top Democratic staffers in Congress blame Biden for party losses

THE TOP

Congress races to the finish – sorta

Happy Monday morning.

There are 11 days until government funding expires.

There’s a lot to run down about this week, the next-to-last in the legislative year. There are a ton of lingering issues that need to get wrapped up by Dec. 20, with two big packages dominating the debate — the annual defense policy bill and the CR aimed at funding the federal government until March. Both of these will carry several ancillary policies, including a farm bill extension and disaster aid. There’s also a late push on a children’s online safety bill from Elon Musk. And, several of President-elect Donald Trump’s controversial Cabinet nominees will be making the rounds in the Senate.

Let’s get into it.

NDAA. House and Senate leadership released the annual defense authorization bill on Saturday. You can read the 1,800-plus-page bill here.

The House Rules Committee will meet this evening to prep the NDAA for floor action. Speaker Mike Johnson’s first challenge is getting the measure through the Rules Committee, which is controlled by hardline conservatives from the House Freedom Caucus.

If the Rules Committee can’t approve a rule, Johnson will have to take the NDAA to the floor under suspension, which requires a two-thirds majority vote. GOP and Democratic leaders should be able to get the bill over the finish line but they’ll face some serious headwinds from rank-and-file Democrats, who take umbrage with language dealing with transgender children and blocking IVF expansion for military service families. So getting 290 votes isn’t a given.

CR. There’s no deal yet on government funding. Both sides are playing it close to the vest, which means they’re serious about getting an agreement. We still expect a CR running until at least mid-March. Anything longer risks running up against mandatory spending cuts under the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act.

Language overhauling rules dealing with outbound investment in China fell out of the NDAA because of last-minute snags. But it seems like the Four Corners have varying levels of interest in squeezing this into the CR. We’ll see if Trump weighs in against this. He may not want legislation dealing with China ending up in a bill that President Joe Biden will sign.

KOSA. On Saturday, Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) announced they’d negotiated a new version of the Kids Online Safety Act with Musk. The Senate overwhelmingly passed KOSA in a 91-3 vote this summer, but it has stalled in the House.

The latest version pulls back on the emotional and mental harms for children that the proposed legislation had previously tried to counteract. It also deemphasizes the role of the Federal Trade Commission. Donald Trump Jr. then jumped in on Sunday to give the full MAGA boost, calling on the House to pass KOSA “ASAP.”

But the changes — and public support from Trump world figures — haven’t moved the needle with House GOP leadership, who remain opposed to the legislation. Critics also say they continue to have free speech concerns over KOSA, while Republicans are once again reluctant to hand Biden a win on his way out of office.

Reconciliation. Stephen Miller, who’ll be Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy, voiced support for incoming Senate GOP Leader John Thune’s two-step strategy on reconciliation. During a Sunday appearance on Fox News, Miller said both border security and taxes will go under the fast-track process but suggested the Senate could first pass a border funding package by the end of January or early February. Miller said it would be the “biggest domestic policy win in at least 50 years.” As we’ve reported, Thune developed this strategy in consultation with Trump’s team.

Top House and Senate Republicans have clashed over this idea. House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has argued Hill Republicans should also include taxes in the first reconciliation package, with some GOP leaders worried they might not get a second chance.

But if Trump puts his weight behind the border-first strategy and is eager for a quick win on a top campaign issue, House Republicans may have no choice but to fall in line.

Nomination meetings. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said she’ll meet again this week with Pete Hegseth, Trump’s embattled nominee to lead the Department of Defense. Ernst, who has come under intense pressure from the right to back Hegseth, also said she believes Hegseth deserves to have a confirmation hearing — a sign his nomination is still alive, at least for now.

Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), Trump’s controversial pick to be the director of national intelligence, will begin her meetings with senators today. After the upheaval in Syria over the weekend, expect Gabbard’s views on the now-fallen regime of Bashar al-Assad to come under even heavier scrutiny. Her meetings today will be with GOP Sens. James Lankford (Okla.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Mike Rounds (S.D.). And Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is meeting with Kash Patel, Trump’s pick to run the FBI.

Committee organization. The House Republican Steering Committee will begin meeting this week to decide contested committee chairmanships. The Democratic Steering and Policy Committee will meet on Tuesday to consider ranking members for exclusive committees, as well as the Budget panel.

– Melanie Zanona, John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Ben Brody

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THE SENATE

Gardner to chair SLF, ushering in Thune era for the super PAC

News: Former Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) will become the chair of the board of the Senate Leadership Fund, the beginning of incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s takeover of the organization.

Steven Law, the long-time executive director of SLF, the top Senate Republican super PAC, and a close ally of outgoing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, resigned last week.

Johnny DeStefano and Paula Dukes, who run Thune’s outside political operation, will work with Gardner to lead a process to find the new CEO and president. Law’s eventual replacement will be the first new leader in the organization’s 11-year history.

Gardner, a former chair of the NRSC, is expected to take an active role in SLF. He will raise money and communicate with the constellation of stakeholders in the super PAC. But Gardner won’t bring aides or consultants to SLF.

Gardner was elected to the Senate in 2014, the same class standing for reelection this cycle. Gardener chaired the NRSC during the 2017-18 cycle when he worked with former President Donald Trump to increase the Senate GOP majority by two seats. Gardener lost in 2020 to Democratic Sen. John Hickenlooper, who is up for reelection this cycle.

“Cory understands the complexity of midterm elections and modern campaigns, and he knows firsthand the importance of working hand in glove with President Trump and his team to defeat Democrats”, said DeStefano, a longtime Republican hand who oversaw the political operation in the White House in Trump’s first term.

Both SLF and the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House Republican super PAC, will have new leadership next year. Dan Conston, who ran CLF for six years, resigned from his post last week. Chris Winkelman, who was the NRCC executive director this cycle, is taking over CLF.

— Jake Sherman

GAVEL WATCH

Kentucky, Missouri eye House gavel dominance

Louisiana took over the House GOP Steering Committee last month, and now two other state delegations are poised to amass a huge amount of gavel power compared to their ranks.

Kentucky and Missouri, here’s looking at you.

House Republicans will begin sorting out contested gavel races this week. The House Republican Steering Committee is expected to deliver even more committee might to two states with relatively small delegations.

Two Kentucky Republicans are considered top contenders in their respective gavel races. Rep. Andy Barr is the member to beat for the Financial Services gavel, and Rep. Brett Guthrie has momentum in the race to take over the House Energy and Commerce Committee. They’d join House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.), marking three House gavels held among the five-member Kentucky Republican delegation in the House.

The development would come at an opportune time for Kentucky. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is leaving his longtime role as Senate Republican leader, which lessens the Bluegrass State’s power in that chamber. But McConnell will still chair the Defense subcommittee on the Senate Appropriations Committee, while Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) will chair the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

And for Missouri, Republican Rep. Ann Wagner is seen as a favorite to bring home the House Foreign Affairs Committee gavel. Fellow Missouri GOP Rep. Jason Smith already holds one of Congress’ most powerful gavels atop the Ways and Means Committee. Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.) got a waiver to run for another term as House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee chair. If Graves prevails over Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), Missouri Republicans could hold three gavels among its six members.

The have-nots: These states could wield more committee power than delegations with far larger membership, particularly Texas and Florida.

Four Texans currently chair House standing committees, but Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul is term-limited. Rules Committee Chair Michael Burgess is retiring, though Texas Rep. Pete Sessions is one of several members vying to replace him. Only two Texans — Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington and Small Business Committee Chair Roger Williams — will hold onto their gavels.

No Floridians are guaranteed to wield a gavel next year out of a delegation with 19 Republican members. Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) is also running for the Foreign Affairs post.

State representation is a dynamic that comes up in gavel races, but the heated contests to win committee chairmanships hinge on other considerations. Personal relationships, leadership alliances and fundraising are all dominant factors.

Of course, none of the gavel races are over yet. Upsets or unexpected twists in any of the open races could shake up which states come out on top. But things are looking sunny for the Heartland.

— Laura Weiss, Brendan Pedersen and Ben Brody

Top Democratic staffers in Congress blame Biden for party losses

Top Democratic staffers on Capitol Hill are pointing fingers at President Joe Biden for the party’s embarrassing election losses.

Our latest survey, The Canvass Capitol Hill, found that 61% of Democratic senior staffers say Biden cost them the White House and both chambers of Congress in November.

After the elections, Democrats and party talking heads were quick to blame Biden for not dropping out of the race sooner and giving Vice President Kamala Harris just 107 days to run her presidential campaign.

The majority of GOP and Democratic respondents (77%) said the main reason for Democrats losing key races was because the party focused its election strategy on issues that didn’t matter most to voters. Polls leading up to Election Day showed the economy was the number one issue driving voters.

However, throughout the election cycle, Democrats focused on tying former President Donald Trump to the threat to abortion and reproductive rights. That strategy helped Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections following the overturning of Roe V. Wade, but polls showed abortion was no longer at the very top of voters’ minds this time around.

On the other hand, 66% of respondents believe Trump is most responsible for helping Republicans win key races. Most (59%) also attributed Republican victories to the GOP focusing on issues that mattered most to voters.

Throughout Trump’s campaign, the former president successfully united his party behind him and galvanized his support base as he faced mounting legal troubles and two assassination attempts. Despite polls showing Trump and Harris locked in a tight race before Election Day, the majority of voters said they trusted Trump over Harris to fix the economy.

The Canvass Capitol Hill was conducted Nov. 12-29 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.

Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues Washington is dealing with. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

– Donna Baeck

DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD

Chris Gray is leaving the American Bankers Association and joining Citigroup. Gray served in the first Trump administration and will focus on third-party public engagement at Citi.

– Brendan Pedersen

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