The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

The January leader look

Schumer tries to guide Dems out of the wilderness

GOP senators to Gabbard, RFK Jr.: Help us help you

Chavez-DeRemer’s path to confirmation may depend on Dems

THE TOP

The January leader look

Happy Friday morning.

Today is the last day of January. This makes it the perfect time to take a look at the four leaders at the center of our coverage at Punchbowl News: Speaker Mike Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

We interviewed Schumer on Thursday afternoon. We’ll get into that in a minute. Let’s start with the others.

Speaker Mike Johnson. It was Johnson’s birthday on Thursday. He’s now 53 years old. Happy birthday, Mr. Speaker.

House Republicans just wrapped up their legislative retreat at Trump National Doral Miami. And it was a modestly successful event. There were no big screaming matches, at least not in person. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance entertained the GOP rank-and-file.

But we think Johnson’s public prediction that he’ll be able to pass a massive reconciliation package by the Easter break is wildly optimistic — and that’s putting it nicely. Johnson has started telling people that May is a more realistic deadline, and we’re even uncertain of that.

Some senior House GOP aides now doubt that Johnson will be able to get the budget resolution needed to unlock reconciliation out of the Budget Committee next week. Remember: Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) sit on the panel, and Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) can only lose two votes.

Johnson has several problems right now. Rank-and-file House Republicans feel as if they have no idea where the reconciliation process is going. It seems exceedingly unlikely that Republicans will be able to craft a single package that lifts the SALT cap, extends the Trump tax cuts, slashes the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, eliminates taxes on tips, Social Security and overtime, fixes the border and boosts military spending while also cutting social spending. With Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) expected confirmation next week, House Republicans will only have a one-vote margin until early April.

Johnson also made the decision last year to extend government funding until March. We noted at the time that this could be a strategic blunder. Now the shutdown deadline is approaching with no funding deal in sight. And not only does Johnson have to fund federal agencies in the midst of the reconciliation fight, he has a president who wants the debt limit raised until 2029. Plus, Congress must pass an expensive California wildfire aid package in the coming months. Johnson will need Democrats for this.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Thune is only a few weeks into his new role and he’s already facing some big challenges.

Managing confirmation of Trump’s Cabinet nominees is going well overall; eight have been confirmed so far with more votes looming next week. But some significant hurdles remain, including former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii) for director of national intelligence, Kash Patel for FBI director and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS secretary.

Gabbard’s nomination, in particular, looks to be in serious trouble. More on that below.

Getting a massive reconciliation package through the Senate will be difficult. Senate Republicans are still pushing for two bills — one with defense, border security and energy provisions, the second focused on extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts. As we noted, House and Senate Republicans are nowhere close to agreeing on an FY2025 funding topline among themselves, much less with Democrats.

Yet Thune and his new leadership team — Majority Whip John Barrasso and GOP Conference Chair Tom Cotton — are grinding through it. Thune also gets credit for trying to speed up Senate votes, which had become an ordeal by the last Congress. And he helped muscle the Laken Riley Act through the Senate, giving Trump an early win.

The MAGA wing of the Republican Party will never love Thune. He’s too conciliatory and too honest for them. But his GOP colleagues are giving him solid support so far. Wait until Trump gets on Thune about recess appointments and ending the filibuster, however.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Like Schumer, Jeffries has come under pressure from both his moderates and progressives over how to confront Trump and the GOP-run Congress. All the problems playing out in the broader Democratic Party are playing out inside the House Democratic Caucus. It’s a tough time to be a Democratic leader.

Jeffries remains popular with his colleagues, who see him as a speaker in waiting. Johnson will also need Jeffries to pass disaster aid, government funding and a debt-limit hike. What Jeffries can get in return — if anything — is the big question.

As the highest-ranking Black elected official in the country, Jeffries has a special role to play in the Trump era. He’s the voice of minority voters everywhere who look at Trump’s triumphant return and wonder what the future holds. Jeffries was especially upset when Trump blamed Wednesday night’s deadly air crash at Reagan National Airport on DEI with no evidence to back that up:

House Democrats want more of this from Jeffries going forward.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

Want to make sure your whole office has the full Punchbowl News experience? We have team plans available for companies, organizations, classes, Capitol Hill offices and more. Fill out this form and find out if your team is eligible for a discount.

THE SENATE

Schumer tries to guide Dems out of the wilderness

The last few months have been rough for Democrats. Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris. Republicans took control of the Senate and held onto the House, giving them total control of Washington. And it was a group of Democrats who cast the deciding votes that gave Trump an early legislative win on immigration.

In just 10 days in office, Trump is pumping out executive orders and statements at breakneck speed. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer finds himself under pressure from his own senators and outside Capitol Hill — including Democratic governors — to combat Trump at every turn. He’s being hit for not using every legislative procedure to slow down Trump’s nominees.

Schumer must balance these demands from the anti-Trump left — where a lot of donations and volunteers come from — with his need to support moderates and a tough 2026 Senate map.

But Trump’s federal aid freeze this week, which backfired badly, may have given Democrats a blueprint for countering Republicans moving forward.

“We started Jan. 20 really down in the dumps,” Schumer told us in an interview. “Our constituency has really been given a lift by our example… We knew that [Trump] had really screwed up. And we just pounced.”

Vote on Vought: Schumer prefers zeroing in on a handful of problematic nominees rather than blanket opposition to all of them. Schumer’s strategy is to focus on Russell Vought, Trump’s nominee for OMB director and a key architect of Project 2025. Democrats boycotted Vought’s Budget Committee vote Thursday and held a press conference instead.

“We’re not going to vote no on [all of them] — some people get up there and say, ‘vote no on everybody!’ No,” Schumer said. “This fight is over the executive orders — this is at the heart of what they want to do.”

Democrats see Vought as the one pulling the strings on key elements of Trump’s agenda. And they believe that once he’s confirmed, nearly every dispute will run through Vought. Vought’s nomination is expected on the Senate floor as soon as next week.

“He is just so bad,” Schumer said of Vought. “He’s going to be a focus for a very long time. And Trump is going to learn that he’s a liability — not as a person, as a symbol — for his policies. Already they’ve had to back off.”

Vought, though, isn’t widely known outside of Washington. And Democrats’ Project 2025-related messaging in last year’s election clearly didn’t resonate enough with voters.

But with the aid freeze, Senate Democrats undertook a coordinated messaging strategy. Schumer did several local TV interviews and urged his colleagues to do the same in order to “localize” the issue.

On the floor: Schumer was especially happy that Democrats banded together to filibuster a GOP-drafted Israel bill earlier this week after negotiations to tweak the measure collapsed. The legislation, which imposes sanctions on the International Criminal Court, could still come back up. Schumer said he called the GOP’s bluff.

“We came to the conclusion that they’d rather have the issue than pass the bill. Until the end, they thought they’d get 10 Democrats,” Schumer said. “[But] it showed something way beyond ICC — that Democrats are not going to let them bully us and push us around.”

And it was much-needed. Schumer was getting grief a week ago from some rank-and-file Democrats over his hands-off approach on an immigration bill that split the party.

Schumer dismissed this as a “one-off,” noting some had already committed to backing it “because it was such a campaign issue.”

— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

NOMS, NOMS, NOMS

GOP senators to Gabbard, RFK Jr.: Help us help you

Republican senators threw two of President Donald Trump’s most endangered nominees a badly needed lifeline. Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. didn’t grab on.

Key Republicans were stunned Thursday when Gabbard, Trump’s nominee for director of national intelligence, and RFK Jr., Trump’s pick for HHS secretary, rejected multiple entreaties that would have boosted their confirmation prospects.

Republicans were practically begging Gabbard to call NSA leaker Edward Snowden a traitor. Another pleaded with RFK Jr. to reject his previous claims linking vaccines to autism. The GOP senators made it clear that doing so would help them — and other Republicans — get to a yes on their nominations.

The two nominees, however, refused to give these Republicans the answers they wanted to hear. In some cases, the senators may have been simply seeking political cover that would make it easier for them to justify a “yes” vote.

It was very much a “help me help you” situation.

“I thought that was going to be an easy softball question, actually,” Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) told us of his bid to convince Gabbard to more forcefully denounce Snowden.

Lankford even told Gabbard that Intelligence Committee members, as well as the IC workforce, want to hear her acknowledge that Snowden is a traitor. No dice.

Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), a crucial swing vote, echoed Lankford and told Gabbard it “would be helpful for the way you’re perceived by members of the committee” to say Snowden is a traitor. Gabbard still refused.

The fallout: When we asked Lankford if this was problematic for Gabbard’s confirmation chances, he responded: “I think there are a lot of questions after it, yeah.” Keep in mind that Lankford had already said he’ll support Gabbard.

And Young, who said at the hearing it was “notable” that Gabbard wouldn’t say Snowden harmed national security, was cryptic when we asked about her.

“I think I’ve got — for now, at least — all the information I need,” Young told us.

One possible silver lining for Gabbard: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a swing vote, told us she was “happy” with Gabbard’s responses to her questions, noting that Gabbard said she wouldn’t recommend Snowden be pardoned.

As for RFK Jr., he has serious problems with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). Cassidy, a medical doctor, gave RFK Jr. multiple chances to disavow his unfounded claims linking vaccines to autism. Cassidy was visibly frustrated when the nominee refused.

“Man, if you come out unequivocally, vaccines are safe, it does not cause autism — that would have an incredible impact,” Cassidy said. “That’s your power. So what’s it going to be?”

— Andrew Desiderio

MORE NOMS, NOMS, NOMS

Chavez-DeRemer’s path to confirmation may depend on Dems

Former Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s (R-Ore.) bid to become the next labor secretary is still on track despite warnings from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) about substantial GOP opposition.

The Kentucky Republican, wary of Chavez-DeRemer’s support for the pro-union PRO Act when she served in the House, said this week that Donald Trump’s nominee could face as many as 10 to 15 GOP ‘no’ votes.

“Most Republicans are for right-to-work, and she supported a bill that would get rid of and override state right-to-work laws,” Paul told us. “That’s really a deal-killer for a lot of Republicans.”

It was a notable sign of opposition to one of Trump’s Cabinet picks. Paul’s skepticism is evidence that Chavez-DeRemer, whose positions on labor policy fall to the left of the vast majority of congressional Republicans, may need to rely on Democratic votes to get confirmed.

For what it’s worth, Chavez-DeRemer has been telling senators that she isn’t against any state right-to-work laws.

“The only person that’s been public about [their opposition] is Rand Paul and Rand is claiming he has 15 ‘no’ votes. I don’t buy that number,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told us. “Maybe it’s correct, but she’ll pick up a lot of Democrats too, so she’ll be confirmed.”

Double-digit Senate Republican opposition is seen as an overestimate. We’re told it’s more realistic to expect around five to six defections.

A Cabinet pick relying on votes from the minority would be highly unusual. But Chavez-DeRemer’s predicament is a sign of growing cracks in the GOP as Trump wants to shift the party to a more populist route.

Democrats on the Senate HELP Committee universally told us they had productive meetings with Chavez-DeRemer. We’re told Chavez-DeRemer’s HELP hearing is likely to be the week of Feb. 10, but nothing is finalized.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told us he’s “positively inclined” to support Chavez-DeRemer, praising her status as a former mayor and an “implementer.” Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said she’s “favorably inclined.” Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) added he was heartened by her support for the PRO Act.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said he had an “interesting meeting” with the nominee and acknowledged that she was among the best picks Democrats could hope for.

But Murphy noted Chavez-DeRemer’s nomination doesn’t signal a complete transformation in Trump’s policy views. Trump took the unprecedented move of firing a Democratic member of the National Labor Relations Board. He also appointed Keith Sonderling, a more traditional Republican voice on labor issues, to serve as Chavez-DeRemer’s deputy.

Republicans who back Chavez-DeRemer are sure she’ll follow Trump’s agenda.

Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), who is supportive of Chavez-DeRemer despite disagreeing with her on the PRO Act, said supporting the president is “what’s most important.”

Notably, Chavez-DeRemer’s nomination has been championed by the Teamsters President Sean O’Brien. We scooped this week that O’Brien had dinner with Banks and other GOP senators.

“She’s a perfect wedge between where our party has embraced the unions now,” Mullin said. “We have a lot more in common… and we’re going to show them a little bit of love.”

— Max Cohen and Diego Areas Munhoz

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign. Here’s your semi-regular reminder that former Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) has $7.7 million in his campaign account. Corker spent just $1,513 in the fourth quarter of last year, so he’s not looking to part with the cash that quickly.

Downtown Download. UNICE USA has hired Forbes-Tate to lobby on “foreign aid.”

The Congressional Integrity Project has signed up Pioneer Public Affairs to lobby on issues “related to appropriations, budget and implementation of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974.”

— Jake Sherman

Correction: UNICEF USA hired Forbes-Tate to lobby on their behalf, not UNICEF.

MOMENTS

CLIPS