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January 4, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
The House begins today in a state of crisis. A small but growing faction of House Republicans – 10% of the Republican conference – has repeatedly voted against Kevin McCarthy for speaker, leaving him 16 votes short of winning.
Right now, there’s no speaker, no committees and no rules in place for the House. There are members-elect, but the chaos Tuesday prevented any lawmakers from being officially sworn in. Nothing resembling this has occurred in more than a century.
And McCarthy is teetering. It’s less clear than ever that he can become speaker. The 20 GOP lawmakers opposed to the California Republican – led by Reps. Scott Perry (Pa.), Chip Roy (Texas) and Matt Gaetz (Fla.) – have shown no sign of relenting. In fact, these dissenters seem emboldened and energized by the sustained opposition to McCarthy.
Here’s what’s going on inside GOP leadership: Late Tuesday, McCarthy dispatched top emissaries to begin negotiating with members of the 20-person group. He enlisted key allies including Reps. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), French Hill (R-Ark.), Garret Graves (R-La.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.) to try to cut a deal with the conservatives – to the extent that is possible. They met with McCarthy opponents for several hours. No deal was reached.
These McCarthy allies were also instructed to share the conservatives’ demands with the entire conference. McHenry, a top leadership lieutenant during the Trump presidency, told us this about his task:
Elect a speaker today? We’re not so sure that will happen.
McHenry is one of the smartest inside players in the House and a potential speaker should McCarthy falter. He and the rest of the McCarthy emissaries are working to socialize exactly what the conservatives want so everyone can “come to terms with getting the 20 [no votes] on board.”
There is a lot of horse-trading going on right now. Or, as McHenry put it:
One of the keys here is that it’s not only McCarthy and his top aides involved in the talks now – it’s a wider swath of members with different skills and different relationships. The conservatives have a lot of scar tissue with McCarthy. Widening the circle could help with reaching an accord.
McCarthy allies don’t believe they’ll get anywhere with Perry and Gaetz – both of whom are dead set against McCarthy being speaker. But they think there’s a chance to cut a deal with lawmakers such as Roy and Reps. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), Mary Miller (R-Ill.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.).
Here’s the caveat: Why would conservatives want a deal right now? If they stand pat, McCarthy has to drop out at some point.
Roy, appearing on Fox News’ “Ingraham Angle” Tuesday right, railed against McCarthy’s hardline tactics at a GOP conference meeting earlier in the day, before all the drama on the floor unfolded. Roy accused McCarthy of rejecting a list of conservative demands on committee assignments.
GOP leaders walked back Rogers’ comments, but this exchange demonstrates again how hard it’s been for McCarthy to nail down an agreement.
Yet there’s still hope inside McCarthy world that they can neutralize some of the opposition. The leadership is trying to thread the needle between accepting even more of the conservatives’ demands and selling them to a wary House Republican Conference.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
CHEAT SHEET
What McCarthy needs to happen today
Here are the dynamics to watch as the House gavels back into session.
| → | Kevin McCarthy needs movement today. The House will gavel in at noon. If there’s been progress toward a deal, GOP leaders will move for another vote for speaker. If not, they will need to try to adjourn again until later in the day or even Thursday. Remember: Any attempt to adjourn has to be done by unanimous consent or is subject to a vote of the House. |
It is absolutely imperative that McCarthy shows progress today. We don’t think a deal will come together quickly. But the California Republican has to demonstrate there’s forward momentum in resolving this standoff.
On the third vote Tuesday, McCarthy went in the wrong direction, with Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) joining the rest of the conservative dissenters in voting for Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). This came after Donalds had backed McCarthy during the first two rounds of voting.
| → | How much time has McCarthy bought himself? Twenty opponents is a lot. At a minimum, McCarthy would have to flip 11 Republicans and get the other nine dissenters to vote present to win the speakership. This is a tall task. |
We agree with Team McCarthy that there’s a large group of supporters willing to sit on the floor and vote for the California Republican for a long time. But patience is going to run out, even among his allies. So the question is how many more days do they give McCarthy?
| → | Can Team McCarthy split the right? The House, at its core, is a body built on coalitions. Breaking up those coalitions is hard work. That’s what McCarthy and his allies have to do. Some lawmakers have vowed to stick together. Others could claim victory – or even progress – and vote present or back McCarthy. But don’t underestimate the challenge this represents. |
| → | When do the “unity” talks begin? This isn’t “The West Wing,” so we don’t think a unity speaker – a candidate supported by Republicans and Democrats – is imminent. But you should expect that these types of conversations will begin soon. McCarthy and his allies may even encourage these talks to light a fire under the leadership-brokered discussions with the right. Congress abhors a vacuum. When lawmakers feel like they’re trapped in time and don’t know what to do, they talk about things that could happen or things that may never happen. |
| → | Scalise and Jordan are frozen in place: Both House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Jordan will have to consider bids for speaker should McCarthy eventually abandon his candidacy. For now, both have to stand by as long as McCarthy stays in the game. |
Not a single conservative has offered Scalise’s name on the floor as a candidate for speaker so far. Jordan, however, got 20 votes in the final tally on Tuesday. Scalise is seen as next in line, but he has not gotten much love from the right. Of course, the Gaetz-Perry-Roy crew is enamored with Jordan. And Scalise’s natural voting base is loyal to McCarthy. But watching Scalise and Jordan over the next few days will be very interesting.
| → | And what about majority leader? If Scalise were to become speaker, this opens up the job of majority leader. We wanted to throw out a few names to pay attention to here – Reps. Tom Emmer (Minn.), Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) and Richard Hudson (N.C.). |
Emmer is line to be majority whip. Whip would be his first big leadership job, so insiders doubt he’d make a play for majority leaderf. He hasn’t even whipped a vote yet. Emmer may have to also overcome qualms about his close ties with McCarthy. That could be a problem if the California Republican is out of the leadership picture.
Stefanik is set to serve as GOP conference chair this cycle, but she could move up if the majority leader post opens. Stefanik is among the strongest candidates for the job. She has an existing leadership whip operation and has won two races thus far.
Hudson was elected as NRCC chair for the next cycle, a vital post tasked with defending a thin majority during a presidential election cycle. Hudson also has strong conservative credentials, including on issues such as gun rights. But it’s a big jump from not even being in leadership to becoming majority leader. Plus, Hudson would have to jump over several colleagues.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
THE QUEST FOR 218
McCarthy: I can still win
While Kevin McCarthy’s emissaries tried to cut a deal on his behalf Tuesday night, the California Republican was holed up in a small office just off the House floor. The one-time Hill aide huddled with staff and his family. He spoke with former President Donald Trump and other supporters, all of whom were focused on the same thing – how to win over 20 conservative dissidents who refused to back him on the floor.
“Today, is it the day I wanted to have? No,” McCarthy told reporters late Tuesday in an enormous understatement. “If you look at the last 70 years, no one has ever had this slim of a majority to try to become speaker for the first time.”
Here’s what to understand about McCarthy at this moment – the veteran lawmaker believes he has nothing to lose. McCarthy insists he’s in a showdown against a small group of disaffected lawmakers who aren’t emblematic of the larger Republican conference. And McCarthy repeats over and over again that no other House Republican can get 218 votes for speaker if he’s not able to do it.
“Is there anybody in the conference that can win?” McCarthy added. “I don’t think that’s there. So we can go ‘round and ‘round. It will either turn out that someone will make a mistake and they’ll elect a Democrat or we’re going to find a way to work together to be able to govern.”
McCarthy ticked off ways that he’s helped the Freedom Caucus and other conservatives, despite their opposition to him. The California Republican pointed out that he’d put Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) – who conservatives back for speaker over him – on the Oversight Committee in the first place. His political operation has spent more than $70 million boosting Freedom Caucus members during their political campaigns.
McCarthy added that he’d tapped Freedom Caucus members for spots on Appropriations and Steering committees because there weren’t enough conservatives on these panels. “I want all views to be represented, it’s just working through that,” he added.
The California Republican said Trump “has already reiterated his support” for him, but played down the impact that might have on his colleagues.
“You guys ask me that same question a lot,” McCarthy responded when queried once again about whether he will drop his bid to be speaker. “I’ll let you know when that happens.”
– John Bresnahan
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INFRASTRUCTURE WEEK
McConnell, Biden to celebrate ‘mutual accomplishment’ in Kentucky
Something strange will happen later today: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will appear alongside President Joe Biden in Kentucky to tout infrastructure funding.
McConnell, of course, has played a major role in stifling many of Biden’s legislative priorities and regularly criticizes the administration’s handling of everything from the border to inflation to the Afghanistan withdrawal.
But the GOP leader, in defiance of former President Donald Trump, was pivotal in delivering the necessary Republican votes for the bipartisan infrastructure bill in 2021 – a signature legislative accomplishment for the White House.
Today, Biden and McConnell will travel to Covington, Ky., to highlight upgrades to the Brent Spence Bridge, a major span that connects Covington to Cincinnati, Ohio.
It’s an interesting strategic choice for McConnell, who in November easily quashed an insurgent group of Republicans who argued in part that the Kentuckian was too willing to agree to more government spending — and work with Democrats to achieve that.
Biden is also expected to use the event to argue that his economic policies, which McConnell has consistently blasted, are working.
And it’s yet another contrast between House and Senate Republicans, who diverged on key legislation during the first two years of Biden’s presidency. It comes as McConnell is riding high after breaking Mike Mansfield’s record as the longest-serving leader in Senate history — and while House Republicans remain paralyzed.
Most of the Senate Republicans who opposed McConnell in November’s leadership race were no-shows on the first day of the 118th Congress. The few members of that group who were at the Capitol yesterday indicated to us they don’t have an issue with the McConnell-Biden event. The real concern, they say, is that the omnibus funding package was approved in the first place.
“My problem is that we’re not adhering to conservative principles and we’re just whistling by the graveyard in terms of the massive deficit spending and debt,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who opposed McConnell for GOP leader. “That’s not what the people who elected me want Republicans to do.”
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who won’t be joining Biden in his home state, said he supports funding for the bridge but opposed the infrastructure package because it wasn’t fully paid for. That’s the argument several other conservatives made against the bill at the time. Trump, meanwhile, framed it as a matter of denying Democrats — and Biden — a victory.
McConnell has shown time and time again that he’s unmoved by Trump’s relentless criticism. And McConnell has a long history of working closely with Biden, even before he became president. More recently, for example, the two men have been in lock-step on Ukraine funding and worked together on the U.S. response to the military coup in Burma.
“In a time of divided government, you try and find things that you can do together,” Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) told us. “And at least for the both of them, this is an issue that they feel is a mutual accomplishment.”
Other Republicans will join McConnell and Biden, according to the White House, including Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and now-former Ohio Sen. Rob Portman. DeWine served with Biden and McConnell in the Senate.
— Andrew Desiderio
THE CAMPAIGN
Where your Republican senators are going to be fundraising
We got our hands on an NRSC document detailing the major fundraising events senators are holding this year. Here are some that stood out to us:
| → | Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is hosting a winter ski weekend in Jackson Hole, Wyo., from Feb. 24-25 to benefit his Common Values PAC. |
Ski trip fundraisers are a theme for GOP senators. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) is inviting donors to Park City, Utah, from Jan. 5-8 along with special guest Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) for his LEE PAC.
Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) is hosting a fundraiser in Vail, Colo., from Jan. 13-15. Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) is also bringing donors to Sun Valley, Idaho, for a fundraiser from Feb. 17-19.
| → | More outdoors fun: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) is hosting a fishing trip for his True North PAC in Seward, Alaska, from Aug. 9-10. |
| → | Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) is hosting a weekend getaway in Palm Beach, Fla., from Feb. 24-26 for his ARKPAC. Senate Minority Whip John Thune and Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) will be special guests at the event. |
| → | Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) is celebrating Mardi Gras with a weekend event for his CASS PAC in New Orleans. Guests will stay at the Ritz Carlton from Feb. 17-19. |
— Max Cohen
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