⚡️ Tally: Collins on Trump and her political future

IN THIS EDITION

Collins goes all-in on reelection

What the March primaries will tell us about 2026

Who benefits from crypto’s 2026 warchest

Tally Power Matrix

ICE ads take over Dem primaries

THE TOP

Collins goes all-in on reelection

Welcome to The Tally. Our campaign and elections special edition is back now that the 2026 midterms are kicking into high gear and the balance of power in Washington is at stake.

Catching up with Collins. It was an image that surprised everyone.

There was Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) standing way off to one side of the Oval Office on Feb. 3, a red “America is Back!” hat in hand. President Donald Trump briefly praised her for helping push through a $1 trillion-plus package of FY2026 spending bills.

“You’re doing good,” Trump told Collins, a key player in this year’s brutal, seemingly endless government funding fight.

Yes, that’s the same Susan Collins who Trump said “should never be elected again” after she and a handful of Senate Republicans voted to limit future U.S. military operations in Venezuela without congressional approval.

The same Susan Collins who voted to convict Trump at his Senate impeachment trial following the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection in 2021.

“It doesn’t please any president when I disagree with them,” Collins said of Trump during an interview in her Capitol Hill office. “This president in particular will be very public about our disagreements.”

Here’s the truth — not all politics is local in the Trump era. The new adage should be “all politics is transactional.”

Collins, who made her reelection bid official on Tuesday, needs Trump as much as he does her, although in vastly different ways. Collins justified her Oval Office appearance by noting it’s “just a fact” that she needs Trump’s signature for the appropriations bills.

The two are trying to coexist in a way that allows Collins to win a sixth term in November. Collins is the only Republican who can win a Senate race in Maine. Trump and the Senate GOP need to keep Maine red to protect their majority.

Tough environment. The 73-year-old Collins is clear-eyed about the challenge she faces this fall, with Democrats determined to make everything about Trump. They accuse Collins of refusing to stand up to an overly powerful president, even when it hurts Maine. Plus, as a Republican, Collins has to deal with Trump’s falling poll numbers and the midterm pressures most presidents face.

“I don’t underestimate that this is going to be a very tough race,” Collins said.

Pulling every lever. With so much at stake, Collins is using every bit of influence she’s amassed over four decades in office to help boost her reelection chances. Collins is also leaning on the Senate GOP leadership to pressure Trump and the administration when needed.

Collins secured nearly $426 million in earmarks for 156 projects this year. That huge haul is what being chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee means, and it’ll impact nearly everyone in the Pine Tree State. But that’s still not the full picture of just how much federal money Collins is steering back home.

There are hundreds of millions of dollars — potentially billions — for Bath Iron Works and Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in defense contracts and infrastructure upgrades. Collins secured $190 million for rural Maine hospitals, part of a $50 billion fund she helped add to the One Big Beautiful Bill despite voting against the measure.

“Seniority counts,” Collins told us. “Being the chair of the Appropriations Committee gets me far more influence and clout and ability to get things done for the state of Maine and for the country.”

There are other ways Collins has sought special treatment for Maine during Trump’s tariff, funding and immigration wars.

When Trump imposed new tariffs on Canada, Collins pressured the president both publicly and privately for carveouts benefiting Maine. It’s worked in some cases, but Collins also voted against Trump on the issue, earning a public rebuke from him.

Trump just announced that he’ll allow fishing in areas that former President Barack Obama originally designated as protected, an effort he says benefits Maine fishermen.

In perhaps the most controversial move, the Trump administration scaled back Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations in Maine following Collins’ complaints. Collins pressured DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and other officials on the issue after Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who’s seeking to take on Collins in November, made ICE raids the centerpiece of her first campaign ads.

In a statement, Mills described Collins as a reliable vote for Trump’s agenda, including his “extremist” Cabinet and judicial nominees.

“Seniority without backbone is just tenure,” Mills said. “In the Senate, I’ll use my vast legislative and policy experience to get results for Maine people, and I’ll fearlessly stand up to Trump — just like I have as governor.”

Graham Platner, the progressive insurgent in the Democratic primary, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Collins won’t say whether she prefers to face Mills or Platner. Yet Collins observed that the Mills vs. Platner contest is emblematic of a broader struggle within the Democratic Party about its future.

“President Trump was elected president,” Collins said. “And I think neither of them has come to grips with that fact.”

Collins’ hurdles. One of the biggest issues facing the longtime Maine senator is the expiration of the enhanced premium Obamacare subsidies. Tens of thousands of Mainers are facing sharply higher premiums or dropping health-care coverage, a huge number in a state with only 1.4 million residents. Collins has been involved in the so-far fruitless talks to extend those subsidies.

Other affordability concerns, including inflation, food and housing, coupled with an anemic job market, are big liabilities for Collins and other vulnerable Republicans.

Despite ultimately passing nearly all of the full-year funding bills, it’s been a difficult 12-month stretch for Collins. Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought have consistently undermined Congress’ power of the purse, from DOGE cuts to pocket rescissions. Collins’ detractors say she didn’t do enough to push back on these moves.

There have been real questions about whether those circumstances, paired with the treacherous national political environment for Republicans, would lead Collins to consider retiring.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been caught between the competing demands of keeping Collins happy and staying in line with the White House. But Thune has also publicly stood up for Collins in the face of Trump’s attacks.

“There is one way to elect a Republican in the state of Maine, and that’s for Susan Collins to be the nominee,” Thune told us last month.

— John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

PRIMARY PROBLEMS

What the March primaries will tell us about 2026

The first primaries of the 2026 midterms will begin in less than a month, setting the tone for the rest of the cycle.

Those races will test the potency of anti-incumbent fervor, the effectiveness of Senate Republicans’ multi-million dollar mission to rescue Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and the kingmaking power of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for in Texas, Illinois and North Carolina.

Whether Cornyn makes the Texas GOP primary runoff

Public and private polling of the Texas Senate GOP primary is all over the place. It seems highly likely that the three-way race between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Cornyn and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) advances to a May runoff. But no one agrees on who will make the cut.

Paxton has taken the top slot in most polls. Some polls show Paxton with a clear edge, while others have him tied with Cornyn. But groups backing Cornyn and Paxton began airing ads hitting Hunt — a sign Hunt could be surging in the closing weeks.

Who Democrats nominate for Texas’ Senate race

Democrats are praying for a Paxton win in the GOP primary, as they see the Texas attorney general as a weaker candidate due to his scandal-ridden history. But first, the party has to deal with its own messy primary between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) and state Rep. James Talarico.

Crockett is one of the most well-known House Democrats nationwide and has drawn the ire of President Donald Trump. But Talarico has wowed Democrats by scoring a coveted spot on Joe Rogan’s podcast and going viral with his religious messaging.

The race is getting heated down the stretch. Talarico admitted he told an influencer that Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) ran a “mediocre” campaign in 2024, prompting Allred to endorse Crockett.

Whether Pritzker’s cash can stop Krishnamoorthi’s momentum

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) has led the Illinois Democratic Senate primary for months, benefiting from a fractured field featuring Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

But Pritzker is coming in late with a big check to a pro-Stratton super PAC. That group, Illinois Future PAC, has now booked $9 million in ads. Krishnamoorthi is on track to spend $25 million in ads.

The big question: Will the surge in spending give Stratton enough momentum to overtake Krishnamoorthi? Or did it come too little too late?

Whether House Republicans can get their preferred recruits through messy primaries

The GOP has two crucial House primaries on March 3.

In South Texas, Republican leaders have coalesced around former prosecutor Eric Flores to take on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. Eric Flores, however, faces a real challenge to get past former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) — no relation.

Eric Flores has spent $640,000 on ads. Some of those ads have attacked Mayra Flores, a sure sign he’s worried that her name ID as the former incumbent could overcome her lack of spending. GOP leaders are concerned that Mayra Flores cannot beat Gonzalez in November.

In North Carolina, Republican recruiters are excited about Laurie Buckhout in the race to take out Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), whose district got redder in redistricting. Buckhout is self-funded, but she’s also staring down a difficult primary of her own.

GOP incumbents’ efforts to beat back right-wing primary challengers

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) is locked in a rematch with pro-gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera, who almost beat him in 2024. Democrats might make a long-shot bid for the red seat if Herrera wins.

Redistricting left Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) more vulnerable to a primary challenge. And state Rep. Steve Toth is hoping to knock him out in new turf.

What happens in Democrats’ big primary tests

Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) won a crowded open-seat primary in 2022, boosted by millions of dollars of ad support from pro-Israel and pro-crypto groups.

One of the candidates that Foushee defeated four years ago — Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam — is primarying her again, and making Foushee’s donation history a major issue. Foushee has since renounced AIPAC money and announced support for the Block the Bombs Act (an effort to limit Israeli military assistance). We’ll see if it will be enough.

In Illinois, five Democratic incumbents are retiring from the House: Krishnamoorthi, Kelly and Reps. Chuy Garcia, Jan Schakowsky and Danny Davis. That could offer an infusion of fresh faces to the delegation, but two former members are mounting comeback bids: Melissa Bean and Jesse Jackson Jr.

— Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen

CRYPTO CONNECTION

Who benefits from crypto’s 2026 warchest

The crypto super PAC network Fairshake entered this election year with nearly $200 million to spend in 2026.

The group is laser-focused on one thing: securing lawmakers who are crypto allies regardless of party. So how will Fairshake’s money affect which party controls the House and Senate after the midterms?

We did a deep dive into what the Fairshake network spent in 2024 to help us predict 2026. The network includes three distinct groups: Defend American Jobs, which spends for GOP candidates; Protect Progress, which spends for Democrats; and Fairshake, which spends for both parties.

The short answer. The network favored Republicans in key 2024 Senate races. But it split its funds nearly evenly in the House battleground.

These groups spent money in 65 races last cycle. Plenty of those were safe blue or red seats. While wins in those districts don’t shift the balance of power on Capitol Hill, they do build a more crypto-friendly Congress. What crypto needed in 2024 was friends on the Hill in both parties, and the approach helped elevate the sector’s agenda.

This cycle may be different. Fairshake and other crypto PACs are waiting to see whether market structure legislation will die in the Senate and, if so, who crypto leaders blame. A spokesperson for the Fairshake network declined to comment for this story.

Here’s more from our 2024 analysis:

Republican candidates received more money overall. The three groups in the Fairshake network spent $53 million for House and Senate GOP candidates in competitive seats, per FEC filings.

But those groups spent only $33.4 million for Democratic candidates in competitive House and Senate races.

That large disparity was driven by a $40 million investment in Ohio to elect now-GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno. Moreno ousted Democrat Sherrod Brown, then chair of the Senate Banking Committee.

The Senate. Ohio was the only truly competitive Senate race that drew spending from the Fairshake network to support a Republican.

But Protect Progress spent about $20 million total to boost Senate Democratic candidates in two other purple states, Ruben Gallego in Arizona and Elissa Slotkin in Michigan.

That gave the GOP a clear edge in Fairshake money in the 2024 Senate races. And it could repeat in 2026. Brown is running again and is widely expected to be a huge crypto target. Brown is running against Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who told us recently he’d happily accept Fairshake’s support.

The House. In battleground House seats, the network was pretty evenly divided among the parties last cycle: $12.7 million for GOP candidates compared to $13.3 million for Democrats.

Should Fairshake keep the same formula for 2026, the campaign spending benefits would be split fairly evenly between Republicans and Democrats.

Going forward. The next year will be crucial. If a market structure bill is enacted this year, we could see a greater focus from the PACs on lawmakers serving on the tax committees. Tax reform is the industry’s next big lobbying push.

But a vengeful crypto sector that doesn’t get the legislation it wants in the 119th Congress may act differently with its campaign spending. If crypto blames one party or the other for that policy failure, that $193 million could be used in a more aggressive way to try to defeat the industry’s detractors.

– Ally Mutnick and Brendan Pedersen

WHO’S UP, WHO’S DOWN

Tally Power Matrix

— Max Cohen

THE AIRWAVES

ICE ads take over Dem primaries

The battle over President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement has rapidly become the hottest topic in Democratic primary ads nationwide.

While Democrats are rushing to the left to show their voters they will do everything to oppose the actions of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Republicans are overwhelmingly silent.

Here’s a breakdown of the most notable spots featuring ICE messaging from 2026, thanks to our friends at AdImpact.

Illinois Senate. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, backed by the Illinois Future PAC, claims she’s “the only major candidate in the race for Illinois Senate calling to abolish ICE.” Meanwhile, the race’s frontrunner, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), put out an ad where he pledged to “abolish Trump’s ICE” and called the agency’s actions “morally wrong.”

New Jersey 11th District. Immigration enforcement dominated advertising in the special Democratic primary in New Jersey’s 11th District. United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC, spent millions of dollars on ads against Tom Malinowski, linking the former House Democrat to ICE funding.

“In 2019, Tom Malinowski voted with Trump and the Republicans to fund ICE,” one spot argued.

Malinowski, the early frontrunner, is currently narrowly trailing progressive Analilia Mejia. The race still hasn’t been called.

An ad from a pro-Tahesha Way group touted that the former lieutenant governor is running “to end Trump’s violent ICE raids in schools,” while Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill’s ads decried that kids are being told in schools that ICE is coming to deport them.

House primaries. In Illinois’ 9th District open primary, state Sen. Laura Fine (D) hails her work “championing the law to unmask ICE and hold them accountable.” Former Rep. David Trone’s (D-Md.) comeback bid features an ad condemning the way ICE is “snatching” families.

Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.), facing a left-wing primary challenge, is touting how “she always stood up to ICE and Trump” and is now “demanding accountability, body cameras, no masks, and prosecute abuse.”

Maine Senate. Gov. Janet Mills’ first primary ad buy focused entirely on her work blasting ICE, and labeling its actions “outrageous and unconstitutional.” Mills is locked in a bitter primary with progressive outsider Graham Platner, who has tried to run to her left on the ICE issue.

The Republican messaging. Republicans, for the most part, are avoiding any reference to ICE in their ads. The GOP contenders are happy to talk about border security at large, but AdImpact only found three congressional ads this year where Republicans mention ICE.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), battling two GOP primary opponents, ran a tough-on-immigration ad highlighting the fact that he backed a bill to “hire 10,000 new ICE officers.”

Brian Stover, running to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), says he’s running for Congress to “defend ICE agents and keep us safe.” Another GOP House contender, Brett Jensen in Texas, said in an ad that he stands with “ICE to deport the illegals.”

— Max Cohen