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Congress takes a beating in Munich

Vance brings Trump worldview to Munich

Jason Smith gets real on SALT

Swing state Dems welcome Biden to campaign trail

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Congress takes a beating in Munich

Happy Monday morning. We only have AM editions this week.

MUNICH — One could understand why foreign leaders are confused — even frustrated — with the United States.

At last year’s NATO summit, President Joe Biden proudly declared that U.S. support for Ukraine would never waver.

But consider what’s happened since then.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell failed several times to steamroll his party’s Donald Trump-aligned wing on new Ukraine aid before finally succeeding last week. Conservative House Republicans overthrew the speaker, leaving the chamber an ungovernable mess. Trump’s stranglehold on the GOP, combined with election-year politics and a general wariness of further entanglement in foreign conflicts, makes support for Ukraine a tough sell among Republicans. There remains no easy path for Ukraine funding in the House.

That reality came into greater focus during the annual Munich Security Conference, when two pieces of disconcerting news broke within hours of each other: Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in captivity, and the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka fell to Russian forces.

Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), a close Biden ally, told us he sees why his foreign counterparts might bemoan “the gap — both in time and in other ways — between the commitments that President Biden made a long time ago versus where we are now after months and months of congressional inaction.”

In some ways, Biden made a promise he couldn’t guarantee. And foreign leaders told U.S. lawmakers here that their long-held fallback position when it comes to congressional dysfunction — “they’ll get it done in the end, they always do” — may no longer be operative.

“We’re scaring the daylights out of them,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said in an interview here. “There’s the very immediate question of re-supply of Ukraine… and then there’s the broader question of the reliability of our commitment to NATO.”

News here … Inside the meetings: In private, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told lawmakers that their “lack of a decision” is having an impact on the battlefield. Indeed, Ukrainian troops are being forced to ration ammo. And Congress isn’t giving U.S. allies any reason to be optimistic.

“It wasn’t that long ago that all of us were here saying, ‘No, no. Don’t worry. We’ve got it.’ And then milestones get missed… and they see the debate. They see the erosion on the Republican side,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) told us. “They can see what we can see.”

Still, nearly all of the 23 lawmakers we interviewed here said they needed to project some semblance of optimism and reassure their allies.

“At times we have much slower progress than people would like to see. But we’ll get there,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told us. “I think our European allies need to hear that.”

Border politics: Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), who voted against the Senate foreign aid bill because there wasn’t a border security fix, tried to embrace a similar message. Ricketts was booed during a panel when he said the U.S.-Mexico border crisis is a “pressing issue for our country,” and seemed to compare it to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine before adding, “Not quite the same thing.”

“We all have to have a little grace, we’re all democracies,” Ricketts said of that interaction. “Getting our populations to where we need to be is a matter of time. Process matters.”

This message no longer seems to be working with the European Union, which just approved a €50 billion economic aid package for Ukraine. Some GOP supporters of the Senate bill, like Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), tried explaining the border dynamic to other foreign leaders but lamented that “they don’t see the connection.”

The desperation U.S. allies were quite openly exuding in Munich even came in the form of questions about the minutiae of congressional procedure. As we wrote on Friday, multiple lawmakers said that foreign leaders asked them how a discharge petition works.

“I’ve heard more about a discharge petition in the last two days from foreign leaders — at the highest levels — than in my prior eleven years in office combined,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told us.

One notable exception to the hair-on-fire panicking, at least in private, was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Lawmakers who met with Zelensky told us he was surprisingly upbeat and measured. House and Senate Republicans who attended assured him that an aid package would pass.

News: Here’s the “Dear Colleague” letter that Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Jared Golden (D-Maine) and eight other members are sending today on their bipartisan foreign aid and border security proposal. It’s their response to the Senate’s $95 billion plan and is designed to overcome opposition to Ukraine aid from House GOP leaders.

“The Senate has now put forth two bipartisan proposals. The House has not put any forward until this,” Fitzpatrick, who’s heading to Ukraine this week, told us in Munich. “The only thing that’s not acceptable is to say something’s dead on arrival and not offer an alternative.”

— Andrew Desiderio

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

Vance brings Trump worldview to Munich

MUNICH — Former President Donald Trump’s possible return to power loomed large over the Munich Security Conference, with European and American elected officials alike condemning both his recent comments about NATO and opposition to new Ukraine aid.

Unlike in previous years, though, Trump actually had a de facto representative at the annual gathering. Enter Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio).

Vance, a freshman senator who could very well be considered Trump’s closest Senate ally, had his first big moment on the world stage on Sunday — possibly even an audition for the vice presidency.

The Ohio Republican was given a speaking role at the conference, which surprised many lawmakers here. His views on Ukraine, NATO, European burden-sharing and Trump served as a counterpoint to the overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine speakers, which ranged from heads of state to legislators and diplomats.

“My political perspective is maybe underrepresented among the Munich Security Conference,” Vance told us here. “My political perspective is, I believe, the majority political perspective in the United States.”

Vance believes the U.S. foreign policy focus must pivot to the Indo-Pacific region. To Vance, that justifies Trump’s demand that European nations get more aggressive with their own defense. The United States doesn’t have the resources to fight several multi-front wars, Vance added, and it’s time for the Western coalition to push for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine — one that involves ceding territory to Russia.

“How many more Ukrainians get killed before we get there?” Vance said. “The West doesn’t make enough munitions to support an indefinite war. Ukraine doesn’t have enough manpower to support an indefinite war. We have to be realistic.”

Pelosi weighs in: Bipartisan majorities in Congress disagree and believe it’s in the U.S. interest to ensure that Ukraine defeats Russia. Western leaders largely believe that if Russian President Vladimir Putin is successful in Ukraine, he won’t stop there. And that puts all of NATO at risk.

“If the U.S. is casual about NATO, then they [Europe] have to take responsibility in a different way, which they seem prepared to do,” former Speaker Nancy Pelosi told us. “But we’re in NATO for our own interests… It’s not charity.”

The idea of giving up territory to Russia is sacrilegious at a gathering like this one. It’s not something the Ukrainian government is remotely close to entertaining. There was, however, a real debate at the conference about whether a Ukrainian victory is even possible at this point and what that would look like.

There’s also broad bipartisan agreement that Europe should be boosting its defense capabilities, just not for the reasons Vance suggests.

Rutte to the rescue: Interestingly, Vance’s push for Europe to become more self-sufficient got a significant boost from Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who also happens to be the likely next secretary-general of NATO.

Rutte said Trump is right that European nations need to increase their defense spending.

“We have to do this because we want to do this, because it is in our interest,” Rutte said. “All that whining and moaning about Trump, I hear that constantly over the last couple of days. Let’s stop doing that.”

Vance was part of a CODEL led by Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), although his foreign policy views are way out of step with the others.

Here’s how Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) described the dissonance to his European counterparts:

Vance didn’t join the rest of the Senate delegation for a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday. Vance told us he had other meetings and didn’t think he would learn anything new.

— Andrew Desiderio

Jason Smith gets real on SALT

House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) is setting expectations for a tax fight that’s only getting hotter: the battle over deductions for state and local taxes.

New York Republicans got a bruising dose of reality last week from their GOP colleagues on SALT. Eighteen House Republicans wouldn’t even support a rule — typically a party-line vote — to tee up a bill allowing a minor boost in deductions.

We caught up with Smith on the SALT impasse during our exclusive sit-down with the Missouri Republican, which you can read in this week’s The Sunday Vault.

Smith delivered a hard truth for blue-state Republicans about next year when the GOP-crafted, $10,000 cap is scheduled to expire along with much of the 2017 Republican tax law:

Smith added the cap also brought in hundreds of billions of dollars “that was used to lower tax rates for everyone.” Keeping the cap in place could bring in more than $900 billion over a decade.

Blue-state Republicans argue the cap is hurting them in election contests that could determine who controls the House, but that hasn’t turned the tide.

Smith said he wanted to aid the New Yorkers and met with them extensively as he prepared his bipartisan tax package. But he was also trying to help them understand they just didn’t have the numbers on SALT.

Smith acknowledged proponents of lifting the cap will have the most leverage next year because it expires and said he’s open to compromise.

Smith on what’s next: We covered much more ground in our interview with Smith for The Sunday Vault:

— Laura Weiss

THE CAMPAIGN

Swing state Dems welcome Biden to campaign trail

President Joe Biden’s political liabilities have dominated headlines in recent weeks. But vulnerable House Democrats in swing states are sticking by Biden despite private, caucus-wide fretting about his electoral standings.

For example, two Nevada Frontliners — Reps. Susie Lee and Steven Horsford — hailed Biden as a transformative president who has delivered tangible results for the Silver State.

“Biden has been one of the most successful presidents of our lifetime,” Lee told us, citing a solar panel company that recently moved its factory to Nevada due to the Inflation Reduction Act’s subsidies.

“Of course I’ll welcome the president,” Horsford, who chairs the CBC, told us. “He’s worked to cap insulin, to bring down the cost of medications for constituents in my district… as well as leading the biggest job recovery of any president in the first three years of his term.”

And Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.), a rare House Democrat in a district won twice by former President Donald Trump, said Biden is welcome to stump for him anytime.

Cartwright particularly touted Biden’s infrastructure wins that supported rail service in his region.

“People ought to be pretty happy with Joe Biden in my neck of the woods,” Cartwright told us. Biden, of course, grew up in Cartwright’s district in Scranton, Pa.

At the House Democrats’ issues retreat this month, DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said she expects Biden to join some vulnerable Democrats on the trail.

“Some are in states like California and New York that are probably not going to be heavily contested on a presidential level,” DelBene said. “Others will be, and so we expect that candidates are going to run campaigns based on what they think is right for their district.”

Notably, this differs from Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi’s (D-N.Y.) strategy of distancing himself from Biden and the national party during his recent special election win. While campaigning, Suozzi even speculated that Biden may drop out before the convention this summer.

The GOP view: Republicans see the willingness of vulnerable Democrats to bear-hug Biden as a political gift. After all, Biden is deep underwater in national approval polls. And the GOP has called the president’s mental acuity into question after Special Counsel Robert Hur’s recent report painted Biden as a forgetful, elderly man.

Here’s Jack Pandol, spokesperson for the House Republicans’ campaign arm:

Stay tuned — We’ll be closely following how Biden interacts with Hill Democrats on the trail this year.

— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

THE CAMPAIGN

In the bitter back-and-forth messaging war in California’s 41st District, Democrat Will Rollins is up with a new ad accusing incumbent GOP Rep. Ken Calvert of having “no respect for law enforcement.”

The ad hits Calvert for his response to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and his votes against FBI funding. And in a bit of an ace card for the Rollins campaign, the spot references the 1993 incident when Calvert tried to drive away from police after he was caught with a prostitute in his car.

Last week, we scooped an ad from Calvert that labeled Rollins as a “pro-criminal” prosecutor who recommended lenient sentences.

Calvert beat Rollins by four points in 2022. Democrats are targeting the longtime incumbent again in 2024 in a race that’s on the radar of DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene.

— Max Cohen

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