Shutdown: What to expect today

IN THIS EDITION

Today could be bumpy in the House

The week ahead for House Dems: Funding, Clinton contempt and more

GOP groups build large cash edge for 2026

What we’re watching

THE TOP

Today could be bumpy in the House

Happy Monday morning.

Congress is in the midst of a crisis — again.

The federal government has been partially shut down since Friday night. As of right now — Monday morning — the Senate-passed, White House-negotiated government funding package doesn’t have an easy path through the House to President Donald Trump’s desk.

The Senate on Friday night passed both the five-bill funding package and a separate two-week Homeland Security stopgap funding bill. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer cut a deal with the White House to pass the short-term DHS stopgap so Congress can work on an ICE-reform package through Feb. 13.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wasn’t a party to that deal. That means Speaker Mike Johnson may be forced to try to pass the funding package with just GOP votes, something that hasn’t gone very well this Congress.

The House Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. today to begin the process. Then Johnson and House GOP leaders have to pass the rule on the floor amid complaints from rank-and-file Republicans like Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.), who is threatening to shut down everything because the Senate won’t pass a new voter ID law.

Plus, the hardline House Freedom Caucus is firmly opposed to renegotiating Homeland Security funding. That’s potentially 30-plus votes that Johnson and Trump have to win over.

If and when the rule passes, Johnson then has to find 218 votes to pass the funding package, which we expect on the floor as late as Tuesday.

Remember: There will be just one vote — concurring with the Senate amendment. In other words, lawmakers won’t be able to vote for the five-bill funding measure and against DHS.

House GOP leadership had initially considered putting the bills on the floor under suspension of the rules, which requires 290 votes. But Johnson abandoned that tack after Jeffries warned him that Democrats are going to vote no. That puts the political blame squarely on Republicans if the bill fails.

The Democratic vote count is very fluid. There may be significant Democratic support here for the funding measure, but only if Republicans can pass the rule and get the package to the floor.

During a Sunday evening caucus call, most House Democrats were against the bill. Many will never vote for any DHS bill. Yet notably, Reps. Steny Hoyer (Md.) and Jim Clyburn (S.C.), the former No. 2 and No. 3 in Democratic leadership, said Democrats should vote for the bill. Other Democrats said they would be yes too.

Trump effect. This is a major test for Trump. He’s going to have to strong arm House Republicans to vote for the rule and the overall package. At the same, Democrats have to see that Trump is serious about reining in ICE. There’s little, if any, trust for Trump among Democrats and there never will be. And the president has been largely disengaged from the legislative process since the battles over his tax cut package last year.

The GOP leadership doesn’t have many goodies to offer Republicans to vote for this bill. They can try to get Senate Majority Leader John Thune to publicly commit again to a SAVE Act vote, although Luna and her allies want to attach it to the must-pass spending package.

There’s another complication here for Johnson. Democrat Christian Menefee won a special election Saturday in Houston and will be arriving in Washington today. Johnson will swear Menefee into Congress today, provided the speaker has the documents from the Texas Secretary of State. This will shrink Johnson’s vote cushion to just one vote.

The deal that wasn’t. The fact that Congress is still wrestling with FY2026 funding heading into February is legislative malpractice. And having to wonder whether House Democrats will uphold an agreement that Schumer cut is pretty stunning.

Whose fault it is that Schumer and Jeffries are on different pages here is being hotly debated inside the White House and congressional leadership circles. It’s not the first time this Congress that they’ve had conflicting political agendas.

The White House cut the deal for the two-week CR with Schumer and Senate Democrats. Schumer said he was in touch with Jeffries and both agreed that a two-week CR was the way to go. Exactly half of the Senate Democratic Caucus voted for the funding deal on Friday.

The Trump administration was in contact with Jeffries’ team. Jeffries’ team told us that if the White House wanted to get the bill through the House, cutting a deal with Schumer wasn’t enough.

Republicans say Schumer shouldn’t have made a deal that Jeffries hadn’t signed off on. Johnson and Trump may need to deal directly with Jeffries as this week gets going.

A fight for naught? This entire strategy is predicated on Congress and the White House somehow finding DHS reforms that satisfy both sides. You should be extremely skeptical that this is possible.

First of all, as soon as any DHS deal is reached and turned into legislative text, it’ll take each chamber anywhere from several days to a week to pass. That effectively means that Congress and the White House need a deal immediately in order to make the deadline they set.

But the Trump administration and Congress are nowhere near any deal.

In fact, Johnson seems to be closing the door on one of Schumer’s top priorities. Johnson told Shannon Bream on “Fox News Sunday” that he doesn’t want to forbid ICE agents from wearing masks or require them to wear IDs — two must-have requests from Schumer.

“Those two things are conditions that would create further danger,” Johnson said.

Plus, the divide between House and Senate Democrats on the two-week DHS CR will make it much harder for Democrats to have their demands met during the next, extremely shortened, phase of this struggle.

– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

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HOUSE DEMS

The week ahead for House Dems: Funding, Clinton contempt and more

House Democrats are going to be at the center of Capitol Hill action this week. Here’s what we’re tracking:

DHS funding. During a Sunday call, a portion of the Democratic Caucus signaled an openness to backing the overall government funding package, despite deep misgivings over funding the Department of Homeland Security and ICE in particular.

Some old-guard Democrats, like Reps. Steny Hoyer (Md.) and Jim Clyburn (S.C.), were among those who spoke up Sunday to advocate for advancing the minibus. Clyburn pointed out that the DHS bill funds FEMA during a precarious time for southern states hit hard by recent winter storms.

Getting their earmarks signed into law is also important for wavering Democrats.

But the package is opposed by key members of the caucus, such as House Homeland Security Committee Ranking Member Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.). Thompson, along with other members of the panel, wrote a Dear Colleague letter urging Democrats to vote no on the funding deal.

Plus, this is a tough vote to explain to the base, which sees any vote for DHS funding in any way as a failure. So expect members to tread very carefully here.

Clinton contempt vote. The full House is set to vote as soon as Wednesday on whether to hold Bill and Hillary Clinton in criminal contempt of Congress for defying a congressional subpoena as part of the Jeffrey Epstein probe. The House Oversight Committee advanced contempt resolutions against the Clintons last month in a pair of bipartisan votes.

Democratic insiders told us the Clintons have been warned to cut a deal with Republicans here. These criminal contempt resolutions will pass if it comes to a floor vote. The only question is by how much. House Democratic leadership won’t whip against the contempt resolutions.

The Clintons were subpoenaed last year by the Oversight Committee’s Epstein investigation, but they’ve declined to testify, citing several reasons for their objections. But Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) has refused to let the issue go. And there’s not a lot of loyalty to the Clintons among younger Democrats in particular.

Nine Democrats on the Oversight Committee recently voted to hold Bill Clinton in contempt, while three voted to hold Hillary Clinton in contempt. Those votes left former Speaker Nancy Pelosi fuming during a private meeting.

How will the larger Democratic Caucus vote? Given the intense interest generated by the latest massive tranche of Epstein files, as many as a couple dozen House Democrats could vote against Bill Clinton. Hillary Clinton’s situation is different, we should note, and fewer Democrats are expected to vote against her.

Cherfilus-McCormick expulsion. Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) is pledging to bring his privileged expulsion resolution aimed at Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) this week. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said last week that the expulsion effort will fail. It needs a two-thirds majority to pass.

We’ll note that the House Ethics Committee is holding a rare trial for Cherfilus-McCormick on March 5, so we don’t expect Democrats as a whole to support expulsion until after that proceeding.

Plus, Democrats could offer their own expulsion resolution against embattled GOP Rep. Cory Mills (Fla.), who is under Ethics Committee investigation. These things have a way of canceling each other out.

But it’ll be interesting to see what vulnerable House Democrats opt to do on the Steube expulsion resolution if that vote takes place. Cherfilus-McCormick has been indicted by the Justice Department for allegedly stealing millions of dollars in Covid-19 funds and diverting it to fund her congressional campaign. The Ethics Committee is accusing her of a host of other violations. The third-term lawmaker has denied these allegations.

— Max Cohen and John Bresnahan

CASH DASH

GOP groups build large cash edge for 2026

Republicans are staring down a rough political environment, daunting historical trends and an increasingly unpopular president.

But the GOP won’t be hurting for cash this year, a new tranche of campaign-finance reports filed this week makes clear.

Consider some of these disparities:

— Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, began the year with $100 million in the bank. Its Democratic counterpart, Senate Majority PAC, had $36 million and took out a $12.4 million loan.

— MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC that will spend for Republicans in the midterms, is sitting on a stunning $304 million.

— Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, has $54.5 million banked, compared to $46 million for Democrats’ House Majority PAC.

— The financial gap between the DNC and the RNC is growing even more alarming. The DNC ended the year with $14 million in the bank and $17.5 million in debt. The RNC has $95 million in the bank.

— The NRCC outraised the DCCC by roughly $2 million in 2025 and has a slight advantage in cash on hand. This difference is negligible. But it’s still noteworthy because the NRCC has historically lagged far behind the DCCC in fundraising. The NRCC says the last time they outraised Democrats in an off-year was 2015. Republicans have figured out how to close that gap.

Some Senate toplines. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton led the pack for fundraising in the Lone Star State’s Senate GOP primary with $1.1 million.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) raised $1 million in Q4 for his campaign, but an affiliated joint fundraising committee raised $5.4 million. And the long-time incumbent has the most cash-on-hand by far with nearly $5.9 million in the bank as of Dec. 31.

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) raised just $429,000.

— Two candidates preferred by establishment Democrats were outraised by primary opponents. Maine Gov. Janet Mills raised $2.7 million compared to oyster farmer Graham Platner’s $4.6 million. Both outraised Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), although she’s sitting on an $8 million warchest. SLF has already committed to spend tens of millions of dollars on Collins’ behalf too.

And Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek raised $677,000 for his bid for the Democratic nomination in Iowa’s open-seat Senate race. That’s slightly less than Iowa state Sen. Zach Wahls’ haul of $742,000.

— None of the Georgia Senate GOP candidates cleared $2 million raised. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) raised $9.9 million and has a staggering $25 million in the bank.

— Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker gave $5 million to a super PAC backing Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton for Illinois’ open Senate race.

— In Minnesota’s Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan raised $1 million to Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-Minn.) $2 million. And Flanagan spent more than she raised.

— Ally Mutnick

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What we’re watching

Tuesday: The House Homeland Security Committee will have a hearing: “How the Coast Guard’s Deployable Specialized Forces Combat Narcoterrorists and other Maritime Threats on the High Seas.” Coast Guard Rear Adm. David C. Barata will testify.

The Senate Judiciary Committee will have a hearing on the Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery’s merger.

Wednesday: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be at the House Financial Services Committee for the annual report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.

The Senate Commerce Committee will have a hearing on autonomous vehicles, with the vice president of vehicle engineering for Tesla, Lars Moravy, and the chief safety officer for Waymo, Mauricio Peña.

Thursday: Bessent will testify in front of the Senate Banking Committee.

The special primary to fill former Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s northern New Jersey district is set for Feb. 5.

The United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC, has now spent nearly $2.3 million attacking former Rep. Tom Malinowski’s (D-N.J.) comeback bid for that seat, per a new FEC filing.

– Jake Sherman and Ally Mutnick

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign. Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), a DCCC target, raised $227,563 and has north of $1 million in cash on hand. The Democratic frontrunner Ed FitzGerald has $70,596 in the bank.

Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar outraised Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and his Democratic challengers in Q4. Campa-Najjar’s haul was $357,000.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is up with the first ad of his re-election campaign. In the spot, Graham praises President Donald Trump for his policies in the Middle East, specifically Iran.

Watch it here.

Job moves. There’s a new speaker’s bureau to look out for.

Fireside Speakers, founded by Chris Marroletti — a Capitol Hill veteran who led operations for former Speaker Paul Ryan and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) — is launching with a roster focused on leadership, governance and navigating high-stakes moments. The firm aims to connect organizations with seasoned practitioners from across politics, business, global affairs, sports and public service.

– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

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