The House and Senate are out this week.
Let’s discuss the fallout from Friday’s CR vote and what it means for both parties.
Some news: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries met in Brooklyn on Sunday as Democrats were left reeling from a government shutdown fight that exposed bitter internal divisions over how to take on President Donald Trump.
Jeffries and other top House Democrats have been critical of Schumer’s decision to allow the House GOP funding bill to advance and avoid a shutdown. In an extraordinary press conference on Friday, Jeffries refused multiple times to say whether he has confidence in Schumer.
Democrats: With that news, it’s fair to say the state of the Democratic Party is poor. And we’re being kind here.
Schumer is facing calls from some House Democrats and progressive groups to step down or be replaced.
That’s not going to happen. Schumer remains firmly in control of the Senate Democratic Caucus, despite his critics. Schumer also isn’t up for reelection until 2028, when he’s 78, which means calls for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) or someone else to primary him are wildly premature.
It’s also important to note that, based on our conversations with Democratic senators, many more Senate Democrats than just the nine who voted with Schumer agreed with his ultimate decision. As we wrote last week, this is the “Vote no, hope yes” group.
Yet that’s not to say Schumer isn’t damaged by what happened last week. He is.
Schumer misplayed the shutdown showdown with Republicans, making tactical decisions on the fly seemingly without considering the inevitable endgame. Schumer said last Wednesday, after the House had already passed the CR, that Senate Majority Leader John Thune didn’t have the votes to pass it, in essence threatening a filibuster.
Yet Schumer already knew he’d have to fold, which is what made his Thursday reversal so much more stunning.
Schumer is navigating the fallout exactly how you would expect — working the phones throughout the weekend.
Schumer also has several previously scheduled public appearances and interviews this week related to his new book on antisemitism. Progressive activist groups are already organizing and encouraging protests.
It starts with an event tonight in Baltimore. On Tuesday, Schumer will be interviewed by Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) in New York. (Take a look at what Torres has said about Schumer’s CR decision.) Schumer will then return to D.C. on Wednesday for an event at Sixth & I. On Thursday, he’ll be in Philadelphia.
The relationship between Schumer and House Democrats — including Jeffries and other top Democrats in that chamber — definitely needs work as well. There simply can’t be any daylight between the two caucuses if they have any hope of being an effective opposition party.
Yet Democrats still seem to think this is the old Republican Party, or even the GOP of the 118th Congress. It’s not.
Republicans: To understand what’s going on with the GOP, you have to understand who Hill Republicans are now.
One hundred and fifty out of the current 218 House Republicans (69%) have been elected since 2016, when Trump won his first term. Recently-elected GOP senators and the conservative wing of the Senate Republican Conference are fully loyal to Trump.
The Bush-era leaders of the GOP from 2017, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, are gone or going. The current Republican leadership is 100% pro-Trump. Speaker Mike Johnson wouldn’t have his job if it wasn’t for Trump, while Thune must pay tribute daily to the Trumpian worldview.
Now think about this — the entire House Republican Conference voted to raise the debt limit, which is stunning. Virtually the entire House Republican Conference voted for a CR as well, something that cost Kevin McCarthy and John Boehner their jobs.
Trump is firing tens of thousands of federal workers overnight. He’s gutting federal agencies and departments, which will directly affect all of these GOP lawmakers’ constituents. When protests broke out at Republican town halls over this, the House GOP leadership told their members to stop holding town halls instead of calling on Trump to change direction.
During the negotiations over government funding, Democrats assumed that House Republicans couldn’t pass a CR on their own. Democrats didn’t pay attention to the budget resolution vote or comprehend fully what it meant.
Yet that was the moment when the dynamics of the funding fight changed. If conservatives would vote for that, they’d vote for a CR if Trump told them to. Democrats were still seeking language restricting Trump’s ability to redirect funding, although House Republican leaders knew that, with Trump playing the heavy, they could pass a CR on their own. Because Johnson didn’t need Democratic votes, that threw the responsibility for a government shutdown right onto Schumer.
“The Democrats are still running their 2017 resistance playbook. They are no match for the team they’re facing today,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said.
There’s lots of time for Democrats — including Schumer — to recover. Democrats can force Republicans to carry a debt-limit increase on their own. They can hammer Republicans over slashing Medicaid and social programs to pay for tax cuts. There may be a recession. Trump’s chaotic governing style isn’t popular. With 20 months until the election, there’s no need for panic yet.
