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February 23, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning.
We like to take a moment during congressional recesses to assess what’s happening with party leaders. This is the first time we’ve done so since Kevin McCarthy became speaker and Hakeem Jeffries moved up to House minority leader.
We’re going to spend a lot more time on McCarthy today because, to be honest, Jeffries has a much easier path right now. The New York Democrat has the unanimous support of his caucus, has built out a new staff and is raising impressive gobs of money. House Democrats will follow the lead of President Joe Biden while trying to figure out how to pick up the five seats they need to get back in the majority.
McCarthy, on the other hand, is the speaker and the buck stops with him on every issue. So let’s get started on the gentleman from Bakersfield.
1) Jan. 6. We begin with the latest news. McCarthy has given Fox News’ Tucker Carlson access to more than 40,000 hours of internal surveillance footage from the Jan. 6 insurrection. McCarthy said he would release the footage and chose Carlson, who had been asking to review it. Carlson has a history of racist and xenophobic comments, and the recent release of private text messages from Carlson and other Fox News figures as part of the Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit has further damaged his reputation.
Carlson, as the Washington Post points out, referred to Jan. 6 as a “false flag” operation, so there’s significant risk associated with giving him access to the footage. We don’t entirely understand why McCarthy wants to keep Jan. 6 in the news; most Americans understand that GOP-aligned extremists sought to overturn the election at former President Donald Trump’s urging. But McCarthy said he “promised” to release the footage and this is his way of doing so, as he reminded our friends Luke Broadwater and Jonathan Swan at the New York Times.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer sent a “Dear Colleague” Wednesday afternoon complaining McCarthy’s decision would “compromise the safety of the legislative branch and allow those who want to commit another attack to learn how Congress is safeguarded.” Schumer added that McCarthy is “needlessly exposing the Capitol complex to one of the worst security risks since 9/11.”
2) George Santos. McCarthy’s handling of the scandal surrounding Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) – who’s lied about pretty much his whole life – has been confusing. First McCarthy defended Santos and said he deserved committee assignments. Then McCarthy supported Santos when the freshman stepped off of those committees. With a razor-thin margin of control, McCarthy can’t lose Santos’ vote. But the whole episode isn’t pretty. Santos remains under investigation from federal, state and local authorities.
3) Budget/debt limit. Welcome to McCarthy’s most difficult assignment. The speaker will have to figure out how to pass a budget resolution that GOP conservatives can back – if he can. Remember, Republicans are on record as opposing any changes to Medicare and Social Security, and they won’t raise taxes, so getting to a balanced budget is going to be spectacularly difficult.
Will House Republicans slash Medicaid, food stamps and other social safety net programs, opening the party up to the criticism that Republicans don’t care about the poor? Are they going to cut the Pentagon’s massive budget? Veterans’ funding? Even if Republicans slashed all discretionary spending on social welfare programs to zero, it wouldn’t be near enough to eliminate a $1.4 trillion deficit.This is going to be extremely challenging for McCarthy.
On the debt limit, McCarthy had had one meeting with President Joe Biden and the two seemed to be willing to talk more. But since that Feb. 1 session, McCarthy and Biden haven’t scheduled a follow up. Is Biden trying to slow walk McCarthy? And, if so, does that force McCarthy to pass a debt-limit messaging bill in the coming months? This is possible, according to GOP sources.
4) Relationship building. McCarthy and Jeffries have had good interactions so far. Both men have promised to not surprise one another. They even text each other, as we reported several weeks ago. McCarthy and Jeffries are never going to be best friends, but so far the relationship has been cordial and professional. Same goes for McCarthy’s relationship with Biden. Both men are clearly trying to lower the partisan temperature, even as the House investigates Biden’s family.
5) The happy times. McCarthy will likely look back on this as the best period of his speakership. After the anguishing ordeal of 15 speaker votes before winning the gavel, McCarthy has enjoyed a “honeymoon” with his members and his leadership team. House committees are now up and running, a GOP agenda is slowly coming together. Republican leaders have picked up Democratic votes on several initiatives, including D.C.-related legislation. McCarthy’s conservative opponents seem satisfied – for the moment. It will end at some point soon. But right now, McCarthy is feeling good about himself.
Correction: In Wednesday’s A.M. edition, we incorrectly reported the date of California’s filing deadline for House races. It’s Dec. 8.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
2024
Tester, Manchin and the rough cycle for Democrats
Montana Sen. Jon Tester’s decision to run for reelection in 2024 was a reminder of just how difficult it’s going to be for Democrats to hang onto their Senate majority. The map they face is rough. Democrats have to defend 23 seats versus only 10 for Republicans. And on top of that, it’s a presidential election year, so turnout will be higher.
To be sure, Tester has several built-in disadvantages for 2024, the most important being Montana’s status as a ruby-red state. Tester has been a reliable ally of President Joe Biden too, which Republicans will use against him.
Yet potential GOP challengers — notably Reps. Matt Rosendale and Ryan Zinke — have their problems too. Tester already defeated Rosendale once in 2018, and Zinke has had ethics problems stemming from his tenure as Interior secretary.
Both could face some tough votes as a part of the new House GOP majority too. While cutting spending is always popular as a macro issue, actually voting for cuts is another thing.
House GOP leaders say they’re taking Medicare and Social Security off the table. But that could put other popular entitlement programs — including farm and veterans funding — in the mix. Or child nutrition programs. Or even the Pentagon. Cuts have to come from somewhere to achieve the House GOP goal of eliminating the deficit, and Democrats will use that against any Republican who votes for these bills. Which aren’t going to pass the Senate or get Biden’s signature anyway.
Tester has also sought to work across the aisle on a number of issues, especially programs to help vets. He’s constantly playing up his bipartisan credentials in press statements, even as he’s sided with his party on the major agenda items.
What might help Tester even more, though, is his position as chair of the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on defense. It’s a role that gives him a leading voice on key national security issues. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer tapped Tester to lead oversight of the Chinese spy balloon incident. It goes without saying that in a political environment that has grown increasingly anti-China, this is a big boost for Tester.
That doesn’t mean it’ll be easy. And with Tester’s fellow Montanan Steve Daines running the NRSC this cycle and determined to send Tester packing, it’ll make for a potentially fiery campaign.
Daines is already out with a statement saying that “Jon’s support for Joe Biden’s disastrous agenda of open borders, reckless spending, and massive tax hikes is a fireable offense.” Daines vowed that Tester will see his political career “ended by Montana voters.”
Tester has defied the odds before, however. He knocked off incumbent Republican Conrad Burns in 2006, won reelection in 2012, and then defeated Rosendale in 2018 by more than three points. Rosendale had the backing of Donald Trump in a state where the former-president remains very popular.
This all brings us to the other still outstanding question for this cycle – what will Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) do?
Appearing on Hoppy Kercheval’s radio show yesterday, Manchin gave an emphatic “I don’t know” when asked whether he’ll seek a third full term.
Manchin told Kercheval that his calculus boils down to this:
Then the West Virginia Democrat had a classic Manchin moment. Manchin said he is not running for president “as we sit here today” — technically true! — but he left the door open to a presidential run.
“You don’t know who the Democrat and Republican nominee are going to be,” he said.
Of course, the face-off for the White House race will have massive implications for individual Senate races, as is often the case in presidential election years. This is especially true if Trump wins the GOP nomination and is able to carry his preferred Senate candidates through Republican primaries. Look how that largely backfired last year.
— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
BORDER WATCH
House Judiciary Committee heads to the border, sans Dems
House Republicans are back at the U.S.-Mexico border today. It’s a return to familiar terrain for GOP lawmakers intent on bashing President Joe Biden’s immigration policies.
Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee are holding a field hearing in Yuma, Ariz. The hearing, which won’t include the panel’s Democrats, is the latest effort by House Republicans to draw attention to what they claim is a “crisis” at the southern border caused by the White House.
Today’s hearing has taken on an even more partisan lens due to bickering over Democratic participation. Judiciary Democrats have said Republicans gave them late notice and argued many of their members were already scheduled to be out of the country on codels.
Ranking Member Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) released a scathing statement last week describing the hearing as a “stunt.” Judiciary Republicans dismissed the claim as “fake news” and later doubled down on their assertion that Democrats were invited. Yeah, Congress.
Democrats have pledged to conduct their own trip to the border in March.
So what can we expect today?
The witnesses for today’s hearing include two local officials — Yuma County Sheriff Leon Wilmot and Yuma County District Supervisor Jonathan Lines. Lines is the former chair of the Arizona GOP. Wilmot has previously clashed with Biden over gun control policy.
Robert Trenschel, the CEO of Yuma Regional Medical Center, is the other Republican witness. Trenschel will likely focus his testimony on the costs incurred to the medical center for treating undocumented immigrants, we’re told.
The hearing is the second installment in a series Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan’s (R-Ohio) team is calling “The Biden Border Crisis.” The panel held its first border hearing in early February with testimony from local border-state officials and an anti-fentanyl overdose activist.
— Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY ALIBABA
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EMMER AND THE FROSH
Last month, we brought you the news that House Majority Whip Tom Emmer would be hosting fly-in Monday lunches with new members for top donors to attend. Today, we can report on which GOP freshmen will be taking part. Here’s a who’s who of frosh in good graces with leadership.
| → | Monday, Feb. 27: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.) |
| → | Monday, April 17: Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.) |
| → | Monday, June 12: Rep. Mike Lawler (N.Y.) |
| → | Monday, July 17: Rep. Laurel Lee (Fla.) |
| → | Monday, Sept. 18: Rep. Erin Houchin (Ind.) |
| → | Monday, Nov. 13: Rep. Brandon Williams (N.Y.) |
And there’s another new event for Emmer donors: A retreat at the Nemacolin Woodlands Resort with his chief deputy whip, Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.). That trip is from July 8-10. Nemacolin is in Reschenthaler’s district.
— Max Cohen
THE MONEY GAME
News: Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) will replace retiring Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) as co-chair of Equality PAC, a Democratic group that supports LGBTQ candidates. Torres was elected by the PAC’s governing board to serve alongside Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.).
Torres is set to bring in more than $200,000 for the PAC with three upcoming fundraising events.
Also: Are you hankering for a trip to Hawaii? Who isn’t! It’s kind of cold outside. Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) has a PAC trip at the Outrigger Waikiki Beach Resort. PACs can go to the Aloha State for $2,500.
– Jake Sherman and Max Cohen
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