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IN THIS EDITION

The heat: Johnson squeezed by everyone ahead of budget vote

Thousands of veterans likely fired under DOGE

The Vault: Warren preps grilling for Trump CFPB nom

Celebrating the 119th Congress

THE TOP

The heat: Johnson squeezed by everyone ahead of budget vote

Happy Tuesday morning.

This is what it’s like to get squeezed by everyone.

In the midst of the most important legislative brawl of his career, Speaker Mike Johnson is under withering pressure from all directions over the GOP’s multi-trillion dollar budget resolution. It’s a critical moment in determining whether Republicans – specifically Johnson – can execute on President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.

Johnson and his top lieutenants are trying to corral a one-seat House Republican majority around a budget resolution with $4.5 trillion for tax cuts and $1.5 trillion-plus in spending cuts to satisfy a president who sided with them over the new Senate GOP majority. Yet rank-and-file House Republicans and top senators are jamming Johnson from every which way as a huge floor vote looms today.

Johnson and top House Republicans met late into Monday night with undecided and wavering rank-and-file members. As he was leaving the Capitol, Johnson said things were “on track” and he was “expecting a vote” Tuesday evening as planned.

“I think we’re looking good,” Johnson told reporters, adding that leadership and concerned members were “having very productive conversations.”

Here’s the current landscape:

– Some conservatives say they’re undecided or opposed to the budget resolution because they want larger spending cuts and a more serious attempt to address the huge deficit and national debt.

– A handful of GOP moderates are withholding their support because they want more details about how Johnson and House Republican committee chairs plan to cut more than $1 trillion in spending without slashing Medicaid, SNAP and Pell Grants.

– Two key GOP senators — Steve Daines of Montana and Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo of Idaho — met with Trump Monday afternoon to push him on the need to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent. This isn’t doable under the House GOP budget plan, which only includes $4.5 trillion for tax cuts.

– House Democrats are taking to the East Front of the Capitol today at noon to rail against the budget resolution. This comes after several House Republicans faced protests back home over spending cuts and DOGE-directed layoffs during rowdy town halls or outside their district offices.

– There are now just 17 days until the federal government runs out of spending authority. Congress is nowhere close to a deal that would avert a government shutdown come March 14.

Conservatives. This is where Johnson’s problems begin. House GOP leaders can only lose one Republican vote if all members show up and vote, and it appears that they’ve already lost one.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has been a thorn in Johnson’s side, said Monday that passing the GOP spending plan would make the budget deficit worse, not better.

It seems like we can count Massie, a close ally of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as a hard no. Massie rarely takes a firm position like this without actually meaning it and following through on it.

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) said she was a “no” on the budget resolution as well. Spartz, though, has been known to flip her position on key votes. Although her opposition is pretty firm here.

Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) said on X Monday night that there is “no path” to pass the budget resolution without a firm plan on how to handle the March 14 government-funding deadline. Davidson is a close ally of House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Yet Jordan told us voting for the budget resolution is a no brainer.

“This bill cuts spending, cuts taxes, helps national defense and secures the border,” Jordan said. “Sounds like we’re being Republicans to me.”

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) also said he has problems with the bill. He’s seeking deeper spending cuts and wants the tax cuts made permanent, as Trump has demanded.

The problem for Johnson is that if it looks like the bill will go down, the no votes could pile up.

Moderates. Unsurprisingly, the moderates who hemmed and hawed about the budget resolution and how the cuts were too deep are now falling in line after heavy lobbying by the GOP leadership.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said that he felt “a little more comfort” with the plan than he did previously.

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.), not a true moderate but who hails from the blue Northeast, went from a “lean no” to undecided to a lean yes in one day.

Senate. Fresh off passing their own budget resolution — and on the eve of the House vote — Daines and Crapo had a 90-minute audience with Trump in the Oval Office, as we scooped. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined the meeting by phone.

The Senate duo pitched Trump on making the 2017 tax cuts permanent as part of budget reconciliation, something the House budget resolution wouldn’t realistically have room for. But this is a key demand of Senate GOP leaders.

“At the end of the meeting, the president said ‘I support this,’” Daines told us of his pitch, adding that it would “introduce uncertainty” if the tax provisions were to expire.

Daines insisted he wasn’t rooting for the House to fail. But by pointing to Trump’s backing of the Senate GOP position on permanency, Daines was sending a clear message.

Still, this is a big move by two key senators the day before the high-stakes House vote.

Attendance will be a critical issue today. House Democrats have several members who’ve been away from the Capitol for extended periods of time this year. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) has missed every vote besides the speaker vote on the first day as he recuperates from lung cancer. Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) had a baby three weeks ago. And Rep. Fredrica Wilson (D-Fla.) has missed 26 votes. (Check out Enbloc AI’s query that helped us with this. And schedule your demo now).

Republicans had double-digit absences on Monday night, but GOP leaders were pressing for everyone to be in town today.

— Jake Sherman, Laura Weiss, Andrew Desiderio and Samantha Handler

The Daily Punch 🥊 With new episodes every weekday morning, The Daily Punch brings you inside Capitol Hill, the White House and Washington all in less than 15 minutes. Listen to today’s episode now.

THE SPENDING WARS

Thousands of veterans likely fired under DOGE

Democrats on the House Appropriations Committee estimate that nearly 6,000 veterans may have already been fired from their federal jobs as part of the DOGE initiative run by mega-billionaire Elon Musk, with a lot more veteran layoffs possible.

Veterans make up a big portion of the federal workforce, at roughly 30%. The total number of federal employees was 2.3 million before any layoffs.

Using ratios based on the number of veterans who work at the agencies and departments hit by the DOGE layoffs, plus the number of known layoffs, House Democrats estimate that more than 5,800 veterans have lost their jobs so far. That number seems sure to rise.

By far the biggest chunk of veterans who lose their jobs would be at the Defense Department, where vets make up more than 43% of the workforce, Democrats say. The Treasury Department, Justice Department and the Department of Veterans Affairs could also see big veteran firings.

Again, these are just estimates. The Trump administration hasn’t released an official number of DOGE-related firings, but potentially tens of thousands of vets could be fired.

“It’s a stunning number, it really is,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schulz (Fla.), ranking member of the MilCon-VA subcommittee on Appropriations, said in a statement that “Trump and Musk have launched an unwarranted and unjustified attack on the veterans and military spouses who sacrificed so much for all of us.”

The dispute over DOGE and veteran firings comes as House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and GOP cardinals are supposed to meet with Speaker Mike Johnson today to discuss the stalemate over FY 2025 funding.

While the two sides insist they aren’t far apart on funding levels, Republicans refuse to give into Democratic demands for guarantees that Trump will spend funds as approved by Congress. With government funding running out on March 14, a continuing resolution will likely be needed to avert a shutdown.

The issues then become whether that CR would cover the rest of FY 2025 — through Sept. 30 — and whether Republicans could pass it on their own without Democratic support. Even Cole admitted that was unlikely.

“It would be very difficult,” Cole said Monday night. “I think if we put a majority of our votes — which I think we could do — on a CR, that we could credibly argue that we didn’t shut down the government, the other guys did.”

There are other problems with passing a long-term CR. This kind of measure is as difficult to draft in many ways as a massive omnibus funding package. And it won’t include any spending earmarks, which will be a problem for vulnerable members and senators up in 2026.

Across the Capitol, Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) huddled with her Democratic counterpart, Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), on Monday night.

Collins — who has floated a short-term CR to allow negotiations to continue — called the session “productive,” although she added that there was no deal yet.

“But we still do not have an agreement on the numbers,” Collins said. “I think that’s the most important aspect of the agreement for us to resolve — the topline, and then under the topline, the amounts for defense and non-defense.”

— John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

The Vault: Warren preps grilling for Trump CFPB nom

News: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) will ask the Trump administration nominee to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau whether he’d refuse “any unlawful directives” from the White House and if the agency could operate with only 100 employees, according to a letter reviewed by Punchbowl News.

Jonathan McKernan appears before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday as the White House’s pick to lead the CFPB full-time. With much of the agency’s operations still suspended, we expect McKernan to get the brunt of lawmaker attention – especially from Democrats – as he testifies alongside fellow economic nominees Bill Pulte, Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Kessler.

Warren’s letter, which you can read here, includes questions she wants McKernan to be prepared to answer and is just one part of a broader defense the Massachusetts Democrat is revving up this morning. Warren is leading a separate “forum” later today in defense of the CFPB.

Homework: Warren’s letter poses nearly 70 questions to McKernan, who until recently served on the board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The first question is whether McKernan agrees “with President Trump that the CFPB is an ‘important thing to get rid of.’”

Otherwise, the questions cover the gamut of policy and political concerns. Warren asks McKernan to review “all positions” slated for layoffs at the consumer watchdog – an ongoing worry – and whether he plans to coordinate with the White House on final rules, enforcement activities, funding and staffing.

The Massachusetts progressive also spends time laying out the many conflicts of interest currently swirling around mega-billionaire Elon Musk as the Tesla CEO publicly revels in the destruction of the CFPB. Warren asks McKernan to ensure that “all federal officials engaged in decision-making involving the CFPB are in compliance with all relevant federal ethics laws, regulations, and norms.”

Examination and supervision is also a focus. Warren asks the CFPB nominee whether he’s “concerned” about the halt in consumer compliance exams ordered by current acting Director Russ Vought.

Don’t call it a hearing: Warren will also convene a “forum” of senators at 2 p.m. to rally to the CFPB’s aid and stress the consequences of the agency’s shutdown. Witnesses include Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell, former CFPB Director of Supervision Policy Lorelei Salas and other folks who will attest to the CFPB’s usefulness. Musk was also invited.

Democrats have a factsheet you can study up on here. The doc lists several CFPB investigations that have been frozen as a result of the work stoppage, including an inquiry into whether Capital One shortchanged its borrowers out of more than $2 billion in interest payments.

– Brendan Pedersen

…AND THERE’S MORE

Noms latest: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told us he’s still opposed to Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s bid to be labor secretary. If Paul votes no in committee on Chavez-DeRemer, the Labor nominee would need Democratic votes to advance to the floor.

Paul said he wasn’t sold on the idea that Chavez-DeRemer no longer backs the PRO Act, a Democratic pro-union bill that she sponsored while serving in the House.

Medicaid ad wars: The Coalition to Strengthen America’s Healthcare is running a new ad warning that Congress is weighing potential “devastating cuts” to Medicaid. The spot notes that more than 72 million Americans rely on Medicaid, including nearly half of American children.

The seven-figure ad campaign is the latest sign that the House Republican budget resolution is sparking a fierce backlash on the airwaves. We’ve covered how other groups are also messaging against Medicaid cuts.

Also: The Restoring Energy Dominance Coalition, a conservative nonprofit, has a seven-figure ad buy supporting President Donald Trump’s energy agenda.

The ad promotes that Trump’s energy policies will lower costs for consumers and features a clip from Vice President JD Vance.

— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

Punchbowl News Partnerships

Celebrating the 119th Congress

Lawmakers, congressional staff and industry leaders gathered Monday night at Limani to celebrate #DiversityAcrossTheAisle for the 119th Congress. Punchbowl News served as the media partner for the event marking the new session and highlighting the importance of diversity in public service.

This event honored and welcomed members of the Republican Latinos Staff Association, Congressional Black Associates, Congressional Hispanic Staff Association, Congressional Asian Pacific American Staff Association, Congressional Middle Eastern & North African Staff Association, Women’s Congressional Staff Association, Senate Black Legislative Staff Caucus, Black Women’s Congressional Alliance, LGBT Congressional Staff Association, Black Men on the Hill and Senate GLASS Caucus.

Raising a glass: Cristina Antelo of Ferox Strategies; Estuardo Rodriguez of Intersect Public Affairs; ShaShrina Thomas of Reynolds American; Chloe Brown of Shein; Chanell Autrey of Target; Shawn Whyte of Diageo; Brandon Jacobs of Rep. Yvette Clarke’s (D-N.Y.) office; Aleeke Spence of Adobe; Cleve Mesidor of the Blockchain Leadership Institute; Stacey Brayboy of March of Dimes, among others.

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