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Judging Johnson and Thune

New Democratic ads, plus a big CPC PAC-DCCC fundraiser

Dem freshman confronts constituent concerns about DOGE

How AI is boosting energy innovation

THE TOP

Judging Johnson and Thune

Happy Friday morning.

It’s the last day of February. So it’s time to take a spin around Capitol Hill for a Leader Look.

This is a particularly advantageous time to pass judgment on the performance of the House and Senate Republican leaders. We’ll give the same treatment to the Democratic leadership next Friday.

President Donald Trump will address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday. Two weeks from today, the federal government will shut down if a funding deal isn’t reached. Lawmakers are in the midst of an enormously complex and controversial reconciliation process. It’s a very busy period.

Speaker Mike Johnson. This has been a particularly solid stretch for Johnson.

Let’s stipulate this: The Louisiana Republican still has to rely heavily on Trump, who could convince Republicans to do pretty much anything he wants to do. Johnson barely squeaked through his election to win a second term as speaker in early January, with Trump stepping in at the last minute. Johnson now faces a government shutdown in 14 days.

His margin of control in the House is also going to narrow even further soon. For part of March, Johnson will be down to a single vote.

But Johnson’s goal was to get a budget resolution through the tight-as-a-tick House Republican Conference – and he did it. Johnson somehow got conservative hardliners and moderates on the same page. That was something we weren’t certain he could do. It took real skill from Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer. And it took determination to move forward with the final vote after initially pulling the measure.

The NRCC may be on shaky financial footing, but Johnson has been working hard to raise money. He’s in Florida this weekend for the committee’s annual winter weekend.

Yet the challenges facing Johnson are numerous, especially whether he can cut bipartisan deals in a deeply divided Washington. Johnson will have to negotiate on a six-month-long CR with Democrats. That’s where he is going to get into some choppy waters. FWIW: Trump endorsed a CR Thursday evening.

In our conversations with Johnson, the Louisiana Republican acknowledges that he’ll need Democrats to pass a CR. Yet he also seems intent on codifying some of the DOGE cuts in a CR package. There’s no way Democrats will go for that. So how will Johnson thread that needle? He’ll make the political argument that Democrats are standing up for what Republicans dismiss as waste, fraud and abuse. But he doesn’t have much time to do this before the March 14 deadline.

Of course, the majority of Johnson’s focus in the near future will be on working with the Senate to craft a huge reconciliation bill. We don’t even have enough space to fully spell out how tough that’s going to be. But everyone will be watching.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Senate Republicans have confirmed Trump’s Cabinet and sub-Cabinet nominees at a record pace, a feat owed in large part to the South Dakota Republican’s willingness to play hardball with Democrats when it comes to late-night, weekend and — gasp! — Friday sessions.

Thune’s three-seat cushion is coming in handy, although very few Republicans have voted against any Trump nominees. For all the talk about Thune’s predecessor, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), being a problem for the new majority leader, McConnell’s opposition to Trump’s most controversial nominees hasn’t impacted any of the vote outcomes.

And remember the freak-out over recess appointments? Thune has essentially made this irrelevant.

On budget reconciliation, Thune’s preferred two-track approach is no longer operative after the House passed its broad budget resolution package, though there’s a slim chance it could be resurrected if the tax and spending negotiations stall.

Still, Thune secured a win this week when Johnson embraced Senate GOP leaders’ red line on the tax talks — making the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent. There remain other pressure points between the two chambers. Several GOP senators have taken issue with the House’s blueprint, from the potential Medicaid cuts to the $4 trillion debt-limit hike.

Like Johnson, Thune’s biggest task in the near term will be averting a government shutdown. Because Democratic votes are necessary in the Senate, it would be problematic if House Republicans send over a bill that codifies DOGE cuts.

The Senate GOP leader also has to deal with blowback from defense hawks who won’t go along with a full-year CR — something Thune suggested is the only logical option at this point. Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), the top GOP appropriator, is taking her concerns public. Collins said on Thursday that the Republican leadership “has asked us to prepare a long-term CR, which I do not believe is the right way to proceed.”

— Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

NEW! Join us on Thursday, March 13 for a conversation with Sens. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). Punchbowl News founder and CEO Anna Palmer and senior congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio will sit down with Rounds and Kelly to discuss news of the day and the continued development of space policy. Afterward, Tory Bruno, president and CEO of United Launch Alliance, will join Anna for a fireside chat. Save your spot now!

THE CAMPAIGN

New Democratic ads, plus a big CPC PAC-DCCC fundraiser

News: House Majority Forward, the HMP-aligned organization, will launch a national cable ad Monday that attacks Republicans for threatening Medicaid. The HMF ad acts as the initial salvo in the Medicaid messaging wars ahead of the 2026 midterms, where House Democrats have forecasted that they will focus on health care access.

The ad centers on the recently adopted House GOP budget resolution, which the narrator says “opens the door to $880 billion in Medicaid cuts.”

The spot also argues that the potential Medicaid changes are “all to fund massive tax cuts for Elon Musk and billionaires.”

Next week, House Majority Forward will run similar ads in 20 battleground districts nationwide.

In other ad news: Liberal outside group Unrig Our Economy is running two new ads targeting vulnerable Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) for supporting the House GOP budget resolution.

The ads accuse the lawmakers of supporting reductions to safety net programs while facilitating tax breaks for the wealthy.

Here’s how the Miller-Meeks ad opens:

“Why is it that billionaires keep getting big breaks while regular, hardworking people in Iowa struggle to pay their bills? You’d have to ask Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks.”

Fundraising scoop: The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC held a fundraiser Wednesday night for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that raised more than $1 million in dues for the House Democratic campaign group. The fundraiser was the largest ever CPC PAC event to benefit the DCCC. It’s a notable figure, given how many progressives have traditionally shied away from paying their DCCC dues in past cycles.

— Max Cohen

ON THE ROAD

Dem freshman confronts constituent concerns about DOGE

HAYMARKET, Va. — Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.) faced dozens of questions about the future of social safety net programs and job security at a Thursday town hall where concerns over DOGE took center stage.

The first-term lawmaker made a pitch for a Democratic response to the hugely controversial DOGE initiative led by mega-billionaire Elon Musk. This includes pursuing litigation and introducing legislation to protect federal programs, as well as stepping up Democratic messaging.

Roughly 800 constituents signed up to attend a packed auditorium at a local high school in Prince William County. Subramanyam represents Washington exurbs in Virginia’s 10th District, which is home to thousands of federal workers responding to an unprecedented wave of mass layoffs

“People need a place to go,” Subramanyam told us. “People need a place to share their stories… you can see the look in their eyes. You can see the hurt on their faces.”

The Virginia Democrat, who succeeded former Rep. Jennifer Wexton, began his town hall by asking how many in the room were federal workers or married to one. More than half the room raised their hands.

Subramanyam went after what he said is a “cruelty” in the current political climate and told constituents who supported President Donald Trump that they were lied to about lowering the cost of living and other promises.

“We have to do everything right now at our disposal and at our toolbox to fight back what’s going on,” Subramanyam said.

Democrats have sought to capitalize on footage of angry constituents showing up at GOP lawmakers’ town hall events to raise concerns about DOGE and federal cuts.

House Majority PAC, the Democratic-leadership linked super PAC, circulated a list of more than 50 town hall protests at Republican offices across the country this week.

At one point, Subramanyam jokingly asked constituents if anyone was paid to come. This was after Republicans accused Democrats of staging protests at GOP town halls.

Other topics Subramanyam was asked about included the future of Medicaid and veterans’ care.

One constituent complained about the lack of Democratic exposure in media and on news channels, saying that Trump is dominating the airwaves. Democratic leadership have sought to make diversifying the party’s media presence a priority in an attempt to better reach voters.

Subramanyam said he’s working on growing a bigger audience through TikTok, Instagram and other social media channels to match Trump and Republicans’ media reach.

“If we’re going to be at a disadvantage when it comes to the funding that Trump and his allies have to run commercials, we have to be able to push back and find every place to be,” he said.

Subramanyam also shared his town hall virtually and said he’s specifically trying to reach constituents who aren’t tuning into traditional news outlets.

– Mica Soellner

HILL MOVES

Drew Hammill, a longtime Democratic staffer and top aide to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is leaving Capitol Hill to open up his own firm.

Hammill was constantly by Pelosi’s side during her four terms as speaker, rising to deputy chief of staff and top spokesperson. If you dealt with Pelosi during that period, you dealt with Hammill too. Hammill spent nearly 17 years as a Pelosi aide.

For the last two years, Hammill has been a senior advisor to Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and a staffer on the Senate Commerce Committee.

Hammill is launching Hammill Strategic, a consulting firm focusing on public affairs, crisis communications and strategic messaging.

– John Bresnahan

ICYMI

How AI is boosting energy innovation

Artificial Intelligence and energy are quickly becoming entwined. For the launch of our latest editorial project, The Ones to Watch: Advancing With AI, we wanted to dive into this close relationship.

The story on AI and energy is complicated. Advanced computing algorithms use massive amounts of energy already, and demand is due to triple in the coming years. There’s hope, however, that AI can help drive efficiencies, from better fuels to smoother management of plants.

To get a perspective on the intersection between AI and energy innovation, we spoke with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican whose state is the leading data center market.

“The reality is, we need ample and dependable power generation,” Youngkin said. “Wind and solar don’t provide it.”

Still, Youngkin was clear “an all-of-the-above, all-American power strategy.”

Youngkin is also interested in using AI to streamline government regulations and improve services in the commonwealth.

Outside of Virginia, several states are attracting massive AI companies with big energy projects. The Hill is working on an energy package and related permitting issues, and the White House has set up a council to view energy as an issue of competition with China and technological innovation.

— Ben Brody

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