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IN THIS EDITION

Trump is wild card in Senate GOP leader race

Inside Johnson’s new spending plan

GOP senators say they’re exploring path to yes on tax bill

New FCC data shows impact of affordable broadband lapse

THE TOP

Trump is wild card in Senate GOP leader race

Happy Thursday morning.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell never said the words “Donald Trump” in announcing his decision Wednesday to step down as GOP leader following the November elections.

But it was clear that the former president’s influence on his party — and inside the Senate GOP Conference — was top-of-mind for the 82-year-old Kentucky Republican.

“Believe me, I know the politics within my party at this particular moment in time,” McConnell said. “I have many faults — misunderstanding politics is not one of them.”

The big question now is what role Trump will have in picking the next GOP leader. Trump is the wild card here, the unpredictable element that could tilt the decision one way or the other. That’s the case with pretty much anything in the Republican Party these days.

The GOP leadership election will occur in mid to late November, shortly after the presidential contest. If Trump wins, he’ll have maximum sway. He could essentially have a veto over McConnell’s replacement. Not a full veto, of course; senators still prize their independence.

Yet Trump is far more likely to wade personally into this fight — and other congressional leadership elections — than previous presidents would ever dream of doing. Trump has long called for McConnell to be ousted from Republican leadership, even using racial slurs against Elaine Chao, McConnell’s wife and Trump’s former Transportation secretary. However, a Trump endorsement by McConnell is under discussion.

Trump’s boosters in the Senate say it’s essential that the next Senate GOP leader has a good relationship with the former, and possibly future, president. These senators see the upcoming vacancy as an opportunity to elect a Republican who’s more like Trump.

“[Trump] is, at the very least, the leader of the party over the campaign cycle, and likely the next Republican president. So his views will be given an extraordinarily large amount of weight,” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), one of Trump’s closest Senate allies, told us. “And that’s justifiable.”

Two of the “Three Johns” seen as the top choices to succeed McConnell — Senate Minority Whip John Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) — are close McConnell allies who had their run-ins with Trump following the 2020 election and Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Trump went after them personally, and they in turn questioned his fitness for office. But Thune and Cornyn are backing Trump now. Cornyn was already making calls to Republican senators just a few hours after McConnell’s announcement on Wednesday.

The third John — Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso — is seen as the most conservative of the trio. He was the first of the Johns to endorse Trump, a move that in some ways forced Cornyn and Thune to follow suit. Barrasso has also broken from McConnell and the rest of the leadership team on big votes, which could help him with Trump.

Sens. Steve Daines — the NRSC chair — and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a one-time Trump rival, are in the mix as well. Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) have been floated as potential candidates.

It’s important to remember one key thing about leadership races — they’re not popularity contests. It’s a hard-nosed assessment of how voting for any one candidate will help that senator. The answer is different for each senator. We saw this play out during the fight over the House speakership last year.

The Trump factor: Trump is all about loyalty, and he’s most likely to endorse the candidate he sees as the biggest Trump loyalist. Being closely tied to McConnell, fair or not, probably isn’t helpful if you want to lead the Senate GOP in a second Trump presidency.

Thune and Cornyn have publicly defended the Kentucky Republican from his critics. They also both voted alongside McConnell recently to advance the massive $95 billion foreign aid package that has become a political lightning rod in the GOP. At the same time, both played critical roles in Trump’s legislative accomplishments and judicial appointments.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who supports Thune, said his fellow South Dakota Republican’s recent decision to endorse Trump was “an appropriate move for a leader in our conference,” adding: “That’s a leader trying to make the right decision at the right time.” Rounds and Thune initially backed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) in the presidential race.

A sea change: November 2024 is still eight months away, and a lot can happen, including the possible election of new GOP senators in Trump’s mold. The Senate GOP Conference has undergone a significant transformation in recent election cycles as Trump allies have replaced more moderate, deal-making Republicans who were close with McConnell. See Rob Portman, Roy Blunt, Lamar Alexander, Bob Corker and many others.

But the anti-McConnell wing of the GOP Conference remains a distinct minority, meaning even potential successors seen as closer to McConnell are still in a strong position. This is especially the case for Thune, who is banking on his close personal relationships with GOP colleagues.

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Join the conversation! Today at 9:30 a.m. ET: Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) will join Punchbowl News founder Anna Palmer and senior congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio for a bipartisan conversation on news of the day and AI policy. It’s not too late to RSVP!

FY2024

Inside Johnson’s new spending plan

Congressional leaders have a deal to extend government funding until March 8 and March 22 – news we scooped Tuesday evening.

The House will vote today on a short-term CR that averts a shutdown by extending six bills until March 8: Energy and Water, Interior, Transportation-HUD, Commerce-Justice-Science, Milcon-VA and Agriculture. The deadline for passing the remaining six bills – including the Defense, Homeland Security and Labor-HHS bills – will be extended until March 22.

The House will leave town immediately after clearing the CR vote and will return next week. The Senate will try to pass the CR by unanimous consent tonight, which we expect to happen.

This was a plan hatched by Speaker Mike Johnson. We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves here because this movie is far from over. But let’s dig into Johnson’s play.

But there are some tricky decisions still for Johnson and his leadership team.

The House needs to pass the six appropriations bills next week to avert a shutdown on March 8. These bills will all come to the floor under suspension of the rules.

Will Johnson package these bills together and pass them as a minibus, or whatever the leadership decides to call it? Hardline conservatives will hate this, but it may be necessary to save time and avert a shutdown.

By the middle of March, Johnson will be wrestling with the most difficult spending bills, including Defense, Homeland Security and Labor-HHS. Those will make these first six look like a cakewalk.

Fireworks: During an Elected Leadership Council meeting Wednesday evening, House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) and Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) got into a heated discussion over the hardliners’ legislative tactics.

Johnson effectively told Good that the House Republican Conference supports conservative legislation, but when it’s time for the Freedom Caucus to reciprocate and support leadership’s priorities, they take a pass and screw the speaker.

Good and Johnson emerged from the meeting together and Johnson said that the pair were “friends forever.”

– Jake Sherman

GOP senators say they’re exploring path to yes on tax bill

The top Senate GOP tax writer says he has a mission. He’s working to pin down exactly what would swing the majority of his conference to back the Wyden-Smith tax deal.

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), the Finance panel’s ranking member, huddled with committee members on Wednesday evening to check in on where they stand after a nearly two-week recess and define potential GOP demands.

“There’s a very strong feeling in our caucus that we don’t want to move without having it at least be a majority position in the caucus,” Crapo said leaving the meeting.

Crapo would vote against the bill without changes, and he’s not alone. But some other Finance Republicans have emphasized publicly that they hope to find a path to passing the bill from Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.).

After the meeting, Senate Minority Whip John Thune also echoed the goal would be to see if a majority of Republicans can get to yes on the tax bill.

Republicans “obviously have a lot of people who are very independent thinkers, but… we’re having good conversations and trying to get on the same page,” Thune said.

On GOP concerns, Crapo said they range from issues with what’s in the bill to requests for additions to process questions. He noted the low-income housing tax credit got tucked into the package, which was a priority of Senate Democrats, and said Republicans have “a lot of issues” they’d like to see addressed given the shot at a tax bill.

Crapo outlined his key problems with the bill in a statement on Wednesday, pointing to a provision allowing families to use prior-year earnings to qualify for child tax credit benefits and boosts to refundability of the credit. Fellow Senate Republicans have echoed issues with the prior-year income allowance in particular, arguing it undermines the benefit’s tie to work. Crapo also raised concerns about granting benefits for 2023 this far into tax filing season.

Wyden told reporters in response to Crapo’s statement that the IRS has said it can make changes quickly to implement the bill for 2023. Wyden added that he and Smith had already made accommodations for some GOP concerns about the child tax credit expansion, and that he didn’t believe they’d lead people to give up work.

Here’s the tough part: Significantly changing those pieces of the child tax credit expansion could risk Democrats’ support for the deal. Cutting out 2023 benefits would likely sink it.

So we’ll see if this shakes loose any sort of progress in the Senate. But there’s not too much longer – maybe weeks – for senators to get on the same page before time runs out to realistically get this passed.

“We’ve got policy issues and process issues, and we’re working to get there,” Crapo said. “I’m hopeful that we will get there. But I’m not going to give any timelines or whatever as to when we’ll be able to.”

Meanwhile in climate politics: The Securities and Exchange Commission has scheduled a meeting to vote on the final version of its climate disclosure rule. Mark your calendars for March 6.

— Laura Weiss and Brendan Pedersen

THE PUNCH UP

New FCC data shows impact of affordable broadband lapse

News: More than two-thirds of Americans enrolled in an expiring affordable broadband program had inconsistent or zero connectivity before getting the government subsidies, according to a new Federal Communications Commission survey.

A draft of the FCC survey seen exclusively by Punchbowl News comes as the Affordable Connectivity Program’s congressional detractors argue it has been wasteful. The program is on the verge of running out of funding.

As we’ve reported on our equity platform, The Punch Up, the ACP’s biggest critics, including House Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), contend the FCC hasn’t provided data to prove its efficiency.

Another critic, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), told us earlier this month that the “ACP wasted billions in taxpayer money paying the internet bills of people who already had broadband.”

According to the draft of the soon-to-be-released report, more than half of the program’s rural users previously had no connectivity and relied solely on mobile internet services.

“And more than three-quarters of respondents said losing ACP support would disrupt their service or cause them to drop internet service entirely,” FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel, said in a note accompanying the draft report.

The agency is pleading with Congress to save the $14 billion program before it runs out of money in April. The FCC stopped accepting new enrollments earlier this month in anticipation of the lapse in funds. Currently, 23 million subscribers are enrolled in the program.

About 75% of ACP users aged 18-24 said the subsidized connectivity helped them access their school work. Three-quarters said they used it to access health care services. Nearly half said it helped them apply for jobs.

The survey comes amid a major funding fight on Capitol Hill, with several lawmakers, including Energy and Commerce Committee ranking member Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), pushing Congress to fund the ACP through appropriations.

Despite broad support, there’s no clear path right now in Congress to rescuing the ACP on time.

– Mica Soellner

… AND THERE’S MORE

News: Kentucky Rep. Brett Guthrie, a leading candidate to be the next top Republican on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, donated $560,000 to the NRCC Wednesday. This is a massive contribution that puts him in the top three in the House GOP in contributions to the party committee.

Guthrie also raised $100,000 Wednesday night at what was considered his kickoff dinner for his chair bid.

More news: Democratic lobbyists at KDCR hosted a DSCC fundraiser this week that reeled in over $230,000 for the Senate Democratic campaign arm. DSCC Chair Gary Peters, DSCC Vice Chair Tina Smith, Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.), Chris Van Hollen (Md.), Laphonza Butler (Calif.), Ed Markey (Mass.) and John Hickenlooper (Colo.) attended the reception. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (Del.), who’s running for Senate in Delaware, also was at the dinner.

Dear Colleague Alert: Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) is sending House Republicans a white flag that says “House Republican Surrendered Ukraine to Russia.” Here’s a picture of the flag and the Dear Colleague that’s going out with it.

— Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

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