It's quite the moment to be a Hill Republican

IN THIS EDITION

The GOP’s March blues

Ricketts, King on why their colleagues want to leave for governors’ mansions

Hudson: House battleground is ‘less than 30 seats’

Thompson crushes primary opponent in Mississippi

THE TOP

The GOP’s March blues

Happy Wednesday morning.

It’s a tough time to be a Hill Republican.

Dragged by President Donald Trump into another war in the Middle East, the GOP’s problems are growing worse every day, and there’s no sign things have hit bottom yet.

Trump and top administration officials have struggled to come up with a clear rationale for the U.S. war on Iran, agree on a timeline for ending it or define what victory looks like. Early polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war. The conflict has rattled global financial markets, and oil prices have spiked. That means higher costs for gas and food when millions are already struggling to pay their bills.

Some Republicans want Trump to just declare victory and end the war right now.

“I think the sooner we get to what the president was talking about yesterday — a decisive, clear end to this conflict — the better,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said at the Punchbowl News Conference on Tuesday. Even hawkish Republicans are saying they don’t want this to drag on endlessly.

The Department of Homeland Security has been shut down for 26 days now due to a bitter partisan fight over ICE and its role in Trump’s controversial immigration crackdown. There’s no end in sight for this dispute either. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was fired by Trump last week, and her top aide, Corey Lewandowski, is reportedly under scrutiny over his role in a $220 million TV ad campaign by DHS.

Plus, the SAVE America Act has become a huge internal GOP fight. Trump has seized on the bill, which would require proof of citizenship and a photo ID to vote in federal elections, as a key to the midterms. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and conservative activists want to force an end-run around the filibuster despite Senate Majority Leader John Thune warning that there aren’t enough GOP votes to do so.

The Senate is set to debate the bill on the floor as soon as next week, as GOP leaders seek to put Democrats on record opposing the measure. But the MAGA base is already panning it as “failure theatre” given the certain outcome.

As if the stakes aren’t high enough already, Trump is holding up a potential endorsement of GOP Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) over the bill, jeopardizing the longtime incumbent’s chances in the primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The fight will be joined in the House in the coming weeks by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), who says she’ll try to force the SAVE America Act onto a FISA reauthorization. FISA is just one of several must-pass bills that need to be taken up this year. The farm and highway bills also expire in September.

None of this guarantees that Republicans will lose the House or Senate. Democrats have major problems, too.

Only 30% of respondents in an NBC News poll had a favorable view of Democrats, versus 52% with a negative view. Republicans have gobs of money, literally hundreds of millions of dollars, to spend on contested races. The House battleground isn’t that large, making a wave unlikely although not impossible despite the rash of GOP retirements. The Senate landscape still favors Republicans, even as one GOP incumbent dinged himself Tuesday night (come on down, Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio.)

But the signs aren’t great for Republicans, as many of them will publicly admit.

“I think if you add in high gas prices, high oil prices, and if we are still bombing Iran with kinetic action — people don’t want to call it war — if there’s still kinetic action that causes oil to be over $100, I think you’re going to see a disastrous election,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told host Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business’s “Mornings with Maria.”

Moderate angst. Republican moderates are desperate to do something about cost-of-living issues. Yet GOP leaders have struggled for months to coalesce around proposals on health care, permitting, housing and crypto, running into partisan roadblocks and bicameral disputes.

With tax season in full swing, Republicans are banking on average Americans starting to feel some of the new tax benefits created by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Senate is on track to pass its housing package within days, although it’s run into serious House opposition. Energy permitting talks are picking up.

Yet other GOP proposals have hit serious obstacles. The crypto industry’s effort to overhaul its federal regulation remains solidly in limbo, despite hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign contributions over the last two cycles.

Fed chair when? Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve is popular among Senate Republicans. Replacing current Fed Chair Jay Powell is a major priority for Trump.

But as we wrote Monday, not even Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) knows when Warsh will appear before the full panel. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) continues to block any Fed nominee from clearing the initial committee hurdle until the DOJ drops its criminal inquiry into Powell.

Reconciliation 2.0. House GOP leaders decided they’re going to forge ahead with trying to pass another reconciliation bill. House conservatives are eager to get going.

However, there’s still a ton of public pessimism among Republicans in both chambers that reconciliation 2.0 has a chance of actually panning out.

— John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio, Brendan Pedersen and Laura Weiss

THE CONFERENCE

Ricketts, King on why their colleagues want to leave for governors’ mansions

The pipeline from sitting governor to senator has been well-trodden, but Sens. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) and Angus King (I-Maine) understand why the script’s been flipped this year.

Four of their colleagues — Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) — are seeking the governorships at home this cycle, moves that Ricketts chalks up to opportunity rather than disillusion with the Senate.

“The governorship job does not come open every day, so if you have the opportunity, you kind of have to take advantage of it,” Ricketts said Tuesday at the second annual Punchbowl News Conference.

Both senators said being governor, a position they both held for two terms, is more fun than being in the Senate. But King was quick to note that in Congress, “when you do have a breakthrough, legislatively, you’re making a difference for the whole country.”

Institutional concern. King said he almost didn’t run in 2024 but reversed course over concern that the ranks of the Senate’s dealmakers had been nearly depleted.

“It was literally the middle was shrinking,” King said of his decision. “I just felt like I’ve got to stay and try to keep some momentum toward trying to work together.”

King name-checked former Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) as particularly tough losses for the dealmaking ranks.

Ricketts singled out Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), who’s been front-and-center in the ongoing Homeland Security funding talks, as a valuable new addition to those willing to find compromise.

The two-term former Nebraska governor said countering the rise of China and other foreign policy issues were key upsides to the Senate gig, framing it in existential terms.

“If [Chinese President Xi Jinping] would try to take Taiwan by force, that’s a huge problem — that’s potentially World War III,” Ricketts said.

On Iran. The senators disagreed on President Donald Trump’s ongoing military campaign in Iran. Ricketts, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wouldn’t call for public hearings on the war and asserted that Trump was within his executive powers to strike Iran.

King said while he agreed with Ricketts that “the president has both the obligation and the power to defend the country in the case of an imminent attack,” that was not the case this time.

“There was no imminent attack,” King said. “There was no emergency. There was no time pressure.”

Other conversations. Separately, Bob Sternfels, global managing partner of McKinsey & Company, discussed how successful companies are thinking about incorporating artificial intelligence into their operations in a “balanced way — not just thinking about productivity.”

“We need to take steps to safeguard the use of AI,” he said. ”There has to be the right framework, but we can’t let the right framework slow the rate of innovation down.”

If you missed The Conference, you can read key takeaways from our conversation with Mark Cuban, co-founder of Cost Plus Drugs, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and the sessions with Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). We will have more from other on-stage conversations in today’s Midday and PM editions.

— Anthony Adragna

THE MIDTERMS

Hudson: House battleground is ‘less than 30 seats’

DORAL, Fla. — NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) said House Republicans will benefit from the smallest House map in recent memory to hold their razor-thin majority in 2026.

House Republicans have spent all week at their annual retreat predicting they will “defy history” and keep control of the chamber. Hudson tried to back up this claim by arguing that this cycle is different from past wave elections.

“If you look at history, the president’s first midterms usually go the other way, but I think it’s because presidents usually sweep in a bunch of House seats that you shouldn’t have won,” Hudson said. “That didn’t happen this time because of gerrymandering.”

We’ll still note that Democrats are the favorites to win the House, given the current political environment. But a lot could still change between now and Election Day.

The NRCC chair said control of the House will be decided by “probably less than 30 seats, each one can be decided by 1,000 votes or less.”

“Picture 30 knife fights in 30 dark alleys to determine the majority,” Hudson added. Here are some other highlights from our conversation with Hudson.

Retirements. Hudson pushed back on Democratic claims that the 35 House Republicans forgoing reelection will harm the GOP’s election chances.

“We don’t have a retirement problem,” Hudson said. “You look at 2018, Trump’s last midterm, we had 24 Republicans in competitive seats retired. We have four this time around.”

Economic concerns. Despite voters listing the high cost of living as a top concern, Hudson insists voters won’t blame the GOP.

“[Democrats’] job is to try to convince people that we burned down your house, but you should trust us to put out the fire. That’s a much tougher job than ours,” Hudson said. “The economy is getting better.”

Florida redistricting. Hudson wouldn’t get into details on how many seats Republicans could net in the Sunshine State. We’ve heard Florida Republicans may try to redraw between two to five seats in a special session next month. However, that’s very tentative, and two looks more likely than five.

Hudson said, “it makes sense for them to balance their reapportionment” given the rapid population growth Florida has experienced.

Top seats to watch. The North Carolina Republican singled out Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s (D-Ohio) district — which President Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2024 — as a top target of the House GOP this fall.

Hudson also named Texas Democratic Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar as leading flip opportunities in South Texas. Hudson said GOP nominees Eric Flores and Tano Tijerina are “great candidates.”

If Michael LiPetri knocks off Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in New York’s 3rd District, then it will be “a really good night for us,” Hudson added.

— Max Cohen

PRIMARY SEASON

Thompson crushes primary opponent in Mississippi

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) handily beat back a primary challenger who accused the incumbent of being too old and ineffective.

Thompson, in his 17th term and already the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee, led attorney Evan Turnage, 86% to 13% with 92% of votes in.

Turnage, 34, served as an attorney for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Turnage spent $312,000 on ads per AdImpact, accusing Thompson of taking checks “from private prisons and insurance companies.”

Thompson is 78. Turnage’s defeat is a blow to the broader generational-change movement but it’s still early in the primary season. Last week Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) was forced into a primary runoff with the younger Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Texas).

Meanwhile, Scott Colom, a district attorney, won the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.).

Georgia special. Clay Fuller, an Air National Guardsman endorsed by President Donald Trump, advanced to a runoff with Democrat Shawn Harris.

The April 7 runoff will fill the northwest Georgia seat of former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). This district leans heavily Republican. Trump won it by 37 points and Fuller will be strongly favored to win.

– Ally Mutnick

…AND THERE’S MORE

Campaign news. GOP Rep. Kevin Hern will announce this afternoon that he’s running for Oklahoma’s open Senate seat.

Hern has already been collecting endorsements from Republican colleagues in the House and Senate for a bid. He’s vying to succeed Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who is now President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) is also mulling a run.

Russian oil watch. Senate Banking Democrats, led by Sen. Ruben Gallego (Ariz.), sent Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) a letter urging the committee to investigate the Trump administration’s moves to ease sanctions on Russian oil. That includes a request for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to testify. Read the letter here.

The Money Game. House Democratic leaders from across the ideological spectrum — New Democrat Coalition Chair Brad Schneider (Ill.), Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar (Texas) and Blue Dog Coalition Chair Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) — headlined a virtual fundraiser Tuesday night that raised $330,000 for Force Multiplier. The group is dedicated to mobilizing volunteers to elect Democrats.

Endorsement watch. New Politics is endorsing Democrat Marni von Wilpert in California’s 48th District. Von Wilpert is seeking to win the newly open seat vacated by retiring Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.).

— Laura Weiss, Jake Sherman and Brendan Pedersen

MOMENTS

CLIPS