The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

What’s it gonna be, Chuck Schumer?

The House-Senate tension on budget reconciliation

Lankford talks reconciliation timeline

Rank and file will force vote on proxy voting for new parents

THE TOP

What’s it gonna be, Chuck Schumer?

Happy Wednesday morning.

Government funding runs out in two days, the House is gone and Senate Democrats face a stark choice: Provide the votes for a GOP-authored continuing resolution they’ve been trashing or the federal government shuts down.

Senate Democrats don’t want to shut the government down but also don’t want to look like they’re helping President Donald Trump. And they are agonizing over how to handle what has become a truly unenviable situation.

At least eight Democratic senators will need to walk the plank and support a CR that nearly every member of their caucus has publicly condemned. And during a closed-door lunch meeting on Tuesday that lasted an hour longer than usual, Democratic senators shared several different views on how to handle the mess in front of them.

The prevailing belief after the meeting, according to an attendee and several people briefed on it, was that a shutdown would be a lose-lose situation for Senate Democrats. They’d get the blame and, even worse, there would be no clear path out of a shutdown.

Some Democrats made the case that Trump and mega billionaire Elon Musk would use the crisis to inflict maximum pain on federal employees while denying Democrats any leverage to negotiate their way out of the mess. It could also serve to undermine the party’s messaging on DOGE, not to mention distract from what has already been done, which now includes laying off half the Education Department’s staff. Musk has even suggested that he wants a shutdown.

However, other Senate Democrats believe that easing passage of the House-passed CR would signal capitulation to a Trump administration that Democrats believe is on a lawless rampage.

“We’re not going to be complicit in continuing what they’re doing,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who argued that “Trump and Musk have been shutting down the federal government as it is.”

So Senate Democrats are floating several different strategies — with varying degrees of creativity — that would allow them to avoid this outcome without being accused of aiding or enabling Trump.

One Democratic senator suggested something that mirrors what Senate Republicans did to help Democrats raise the debt limit in 2021 while still being able to vote against the bill. This would involve a handful of Democrats voting with Republicans on cloture so that final passage could be at a simple majority threshold. GOP senators could then pass the CR on their own.

Yet even with this proposal, you could still make the argument that Senate Democrats gave in by allowing that first hurdle to be cleared.

Democrats could also demand votes on amendments in exchange for providing support to advance the measure. If there’s a deal on amendments, they could ask to vote on the short-term CR that Democratic appropriators drafted. This measure won’t pass, but this process would allow Democrats to show they tried to avert a shutdown and then immediately vote against the House-passed CR on final passage without consequences.

Where’s Schumer? Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is feeling it the hardest — and his silence on the matter is strategic.

An angry Democratic base is demanding action and would roundly condemn anything other than total resistance to Trump.

Yet Democrats are also wary of being blamed for a shutdown, which would hurt Schumer’s most vulnerable senators. So Schumer staying quiet here is a way to give cover to moderate and vulnerable Democrats to back the CR, which would help avert a shutdown.

Another Senate Democrat complained to us that House Democrats have it easy — they can hem and haw with no consequences as long as the GOP majority can wrangle the votes on their side. The Senate doesn’t have that luxury. (Remember when Senate Democrats tried to gut the filibuster?)

Perhaps the best illustration of Democrats’ anguish was that, even after the House passed the CR Tuesday evening, a few Democratic senators were still pushing for a short-term CR, something they know is off the table at this point.

Here’s Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.):

As for timing, nobody seems to have a clear sense yet of how quickly the Senate could wrap this up. Some senators we spoke with believe they could finish up as soon as today. That’s highly ambitious, although never underestimate “Senate magic.”

As we keep reminding you, senators are on the verge of their first recess week of 2025. It’s been a long slog. We expect Republicans to put a ton more pressure on Democrats until a clear path emerges.

“This is the way to keep the government open,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune declared. “To me, it’s a pretty simple proposition at this point.”

— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

NEW! Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer will interview Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) on Tuesday, March 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET about news of the day and tax policy. Afterward, Sasan Goodarzi, CEO of Intuit, will join Anna for a fireside chat. RSVP here!

Join us tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET for a conversation with Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) on the news of the day and continued development of space policy. There’s still time to RSVP!

RECONCILIATION

The House-Senate tension on budget reconciliation

Senate Republicans are in a tough spot on just about everything when it comes to the House GOP’s reconciliation plans — from potential Medicaid cuts to the overall timeline. House Republicans, meanwhile, are only piling on.

The House already won out on the strategy for how to pass President Donald Trump’s agenda through the filibuster-proof reconciliation process, forcing the Senate to work with them on “one big, beautiful bill.”

Now key House members are pushing senators not to meddle too much with their budget resolution — much of which Senate Republican leaders have said will have to change in order to win Senate approval.

But House GOP leaders are showing few signs of moving in the Senate’s direction on the budget resolution. For example, here was House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington’s (R-Texas) message to the Senate on Tuesday: “Do the right, responsible and expeditious thing and just take ours.”

Let’s also acknowledge that this is a clash of personalities, as some House leaders take shots at the Senate’s plans. This isn’t how Senate Majority Leader John Thune operates.

The House’s problem is an unusually razor-thin margin that makes every move difficult and leaves Speaker Mike Johnson needing Trump’s help. Johnson made that point about his margin at Punchbowl News’ The Conference on Tuesday, arguing the House must take the lead on reconciliation.

But Thune has been warning that many elements of the House’s approach simply won’t fly in his chamber — and this is indeed an accurate read of the Senate Republican Conference. Let’s take a look at some of these bicameral flashpoints.

1) The House’s direction for the Energy and Commerce Committee to slash $880 billion — which would largely mean squeezing savings from Medicaid — isn’t seen as a realistic target in the Senate, where some GOP senators have already expressed doubts about that level of cuts and the possible targeting of Medicaid. But if that number is lowered, it would put the House’s $1.5 trillion of total spending cuts out of range.

2) Senate GOP leadership wants to do more on taxes than the House budget resolution allows. Republican leaders want to add a “current policy baseline” to make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent in the bill. While views in the conference vary, some senators have drawn a red line on the issue.

3) The Senate’s budget would boost Pentagon spending by $150 billion, a big priority for defense hawks. The House’s plan only allows for a $100 billion boost.

Defense hawks are counting on a higher defense number in the reconciliation package in order to make up for the Pentagon shortfall in the stopgap funding bill the Senate could pass this week.

“We’re Republicans and we’re spending below Biden’s number on defense,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) noted. “If we do not pass… at least $150 billion, we will have betrayed the men and women in uniform.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Senate Republicans on Tuesday and, according to senators, committed to backing the higher number.

4) The House’s budget raises the debt limit by $4 trillion. A handful of Senate Republicans have said they’d oppose using reconciliation to increase the debt limit.

5) There’s also the timing. Johnson said Tuesday that he wants a bill on Trump’s desk by April or May. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) pointed to an August recess deadline at Punchbowl News’ The Conference.

The belief that the tax portion would take a while is exactly why Senate Republicans wanted to do two bills in the first place — and why they could resurrect it if Trump gets impatient.

One more note on Thune: We asked the majority leader whether he’s seen signs the House is moving at all in the Senate’s direction given the realities of what can pass both chambers. Thune said he and Johnson both understand that “this is a long, arduous process, but we’ll get there.”

— Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

THE CONFERENCE

Lankford talks reconciliation timeline

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), a member of the Senate Finance Committee, said Republicans need to enact their reconciliation bill before the August recess so that the tax portion can be properly implemented.

The Treasury Department and IRS need time to roll out regulations and guidance for businesses once the legislation is enacted, said Lankford, who spoke Tuesday at Punchbowl News’ The Conference.

“I think it’s better to be able to do it by the time you get to August recess, so you’ve got time to roll out regs,” Lankford said. “People in Congress forget that when we pass a law, it’s not done.”

Tax policy is going to be the main challenge in the reconciliation package, Lankford said, adding that most of the House Republicans have never voted for such a big tax bill before. That’s why the Senate initially tried to move forward with a “skinny” reconciliation bill that didn’t include tax, Lankford added.

Priorities: Lankford’s priorities for reconciliation include bringing back full bonus depreciation, which allows businesses to immediately deduct costs for short-term assets like equipment and machinery, and expanding the deduction for charitable giving so anyone could take advantage of the incentive.

Lankford also provided some insight into how lawmakers are working to include President Donald Trump’s long list of tax priorities, such as getting rid of taxes on tips. For no taxes on tips, it depends on how many people will be able to benefit from the policy and how lawmakers define what a “tip” is, Lankford said.

Medicaid: Lankford insisted Republicans aren’t discussing cuts to Medicaid benefits. Instead, he said they’re looking at how to get rid of Medicaid fraud and improper payments.

Fireside chat: Cisco Chair and CEO Chuck Robbins also joined The Conference to discuss tax policy and an upcoming meeting with Trump. Robbins, who is also the chair of the Business Roundtable, said the group planned to talk about tax, trade and immigration with Trump during a Tuesday meeting.

BRT is focused on a bigger tax break for R&D spending and maintaining a competitive international tax system in the United States, among other issues, Robbins said. BRT represents CEOs in charge of some of the largest U.S. businesses, like Cisco and JPMorgan Chase.

“We’re always optimistic,” Robbins said, referring to lawmakers’ tax negotiations. “I’m encouraged. I think it’s much more complicated this year.”

The Canvass at The Conference: Separately, Phillip Morris, partner at LSG provided an overview of the findings from our special Conference edition of our survey, The Canvass.

Morris said that based on the Canvass polling, Trump and the Republican Party are more popular than one might think. And while Trump’s policy priorities are popular, there are some concerns about their implementation.

Look out for the full Canvass results early next month.

— Samantha Handler

THE HOUSE

Rank and file will force vote on proxy voting for new parents

A group of House Republicans and Democrats have garnered enough signatures to force a vote on a bill that would allow new mothers or their spouses to vote by proxy.

A majority of the House – 218 members – signed a discharge petition that would effectively force a vote on H. Res 23, which would give new parents 12 weeks to vote by proxy.

The resolution also allows for mothers to vote by proxy before giving birth if the lawmakers’ “health care provider advises that her pregnancy presents a serious medical condition or that she is unable to travel safely.”

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), who had a child in Aug. 2023, is the lead sponsor of the legislation. Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.), who gave birth to a child just weeks ago and has returned to the Capitol twice for critical votes, is also behind the bill, as are Reps. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), Young Kim (R-Calif.), Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) and Joe Neguse (D-Colo.).

Several other Republicans signed onto the discharge petition including Reps. Michael Rulli (Ohio), Tim Burchett (Tenn.), Dan Crenshaw (Texas), Byron Donalds (Fla.), Andy Ogles (Tenn.), Dan Meuser (Pa.), Wesley Hunt (Texas), Rich McCormick (Ga.) and David Joyce (Ohio).

Speaker Mike Johnson hasn’t been supportive, however.

Discharge petitions are rarely successful because the party in power views them as circumventing the leadership’s authority. This discharge petition having got 218 signatures signals that it will likely pass when it comes up for a vote, and become part of the House rules.

Once the discharge petition is on the calendar, seven legislative days must pass before a member who signed the petition can notify their intent to bring it up for a vote. Then the speaker designates a time within two legislative days to bring up the bill.

— Jake Sherman

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign: EMILYs List is endorsing a slate of nine House Democrats in competitive districts: Reps. Laura Gillen (N.Y.), Janelle Bynum (Ore.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Jahana Hayes (Conn.), Susie Lee (Nev.), Kristen McDonald Rivet (Mich.), Nellie Pou (N.J.), Emilia Sykes (Ohio) and Dina Titus (Nev.).

The Money Game. The House Conservatives Fund, the political entity associated with the Republican Study Conference, is holding a political retreat in October at the Omni PGA in Frisco, Texas. RSC Chair August Pfluger (R-Texas) announced the event during the RSC’s political lunch Tuesday. NRCC Chair Richard Hudson will attend the event.

Bipartisan watch: Sens. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) are teaming up to introduce the Fairness in Veterans’ Education Act, which sorts out differences between the Montgomery G.I. Bill and the post-9/11 G.I. Bill.

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS

CLIPS